混沌时间序列及其在我国GDP（1978-2000）预测中的应用

混沌经济时间序列的预测方法研究是混沌经济非线性动力系统的重要内容。本文利用混沌动力学原理,通过混沌时间序列的相空间重构,运用局域预测方法,建立了预测模型。并用其确立的混沌动力学模型对1978～2000年我国GDP进行了预测。把此预测结果与实际值进行了比较,结果证明误差较小。同时还将此预测结果与用指数平滑法建立的预测模型的预测结果相比,结果表明混沌时间序列建立的模型其短期预测效果更好。     

Biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: A multinational investigation

Climate change is one of the big challenges of our time. A better understanding of how individuals form their evaluation of the risk related to climate change seems to be key to win broad support for climate change mitigation efforts. Extant research indicates that biospheric values (BV) are an important antecedent of individuals’ perception of the risk and consequences related to climate change. However, risk perception scholars have only recently started to study how BV relate to individuals’ climate change risk perception (CCRP) and much is still to be learned about this relationship. The present study contributes to this growing literature by studying the BV–CCRP relationship in a multinational context. The results suggest that the BV – CCRP relationship varies in strength between different countries. These differences can be explained in part by societies’ cultural leanings (i.e., individualism vs. collectivism) and societies’ wealth. The present research adds to our understanding of why individuals in different countries perceive climate change related risk differently and how this perception is shaped differently by biospheric values in different countries. In this way, the findings help to build a more nuanced theory of how CCRP are formed. The presented results also have implications for policymakers and NGOs who wish to increase individuals’ engagement with climate change and its consequences in different populations. In particular, the findings suggests that it might be necessary to use different strategies in different societies to achieve a greater awareness of climate change related risks.     

各国高等教育入学率与人均GNP关系的统计分析

采用人口加权方法对世界各国的高等教育入学率与人均ＧＮＰ的关系进行统计回归，得到了曲线形式为抛物线的数学模型，利用本文的数学模型，可以计算我国在各种经济水平上的相应高等教育入学率，从而为我国的高等教育规划提供了科学依据。     

人均知识分布、制度本质与经济增长的逻辑

知识可以分为关于自然的知识和关于人自组织的知识,自组织知识人均分布水平的进展决定制度的演进.因此,制度的本质就是自组织知识,而且制度的演进取决于人均知识分布方差和人群数量,并与方差呈正向变动,与人群数量成反向变动.制度演进为技术进步提供了确定性,从而推进了技术的进步.技术进步最终实现了现代意义上的经济增长,从而形成了由人均知识分布到经济增长的逻辑路线图.