我国农民消费特征聚类分析

通过运用马克威软件中的聚类方法,对我国农民消费的相关数据进行分析,得出了我国农民消费结构阶段性特点和地域性特征。表明我国农民消费结构趋于合理,国家政策对农民生活水平影响显著,政府已经开始注重区域间的协调发展,农民的消费观念变化亦影响其消费水平。     

实物期权投资风险状态辨析

在分析了风险投资决策的实物期权特性的基础上,建立了基于实物期权的风险投资决策模型,把实物期权理论引入风险投资决策评价体系,并采用集对论的分析原理（SPA）和集值统计分析原理（CAS）对提名候选的风险投资工程项目,通过从同、异、反的三个方面计算出其联系度,来辨识工程项目Ⅰ和Ⅱ的风险状态。结果表明,这种方法具有有效性,能为风险投资公司或政府提供参考。     

中国养老金体系待遇充足性的多维度评估

养老金制度的首要目标是防止老年贫困和实现一定水平的收入替代,从而养老金的“待遇充足”至关重要。本文借鉴国际上关于养老金充足性的多维度评估思路,结合中国实际,构建了中国养老金体系待遇充足性的三维度、六指标评价体系。在此基础上,基于国家统计局公开的数据以及全国综合社会调查（CGSS）提供的微观数据进行测算分析,发现我国养老金体系在收入水平、防止贫困和性别差异三个维度上的表现并不理想,各地区养老金充足性在不同时间上存在差异。进而提出我国应在不同层次养老金制度设计中强化收入替代功能、防止老年贫困和缩小性别差异等政策建议。     

贝叶斯隐马尔科夫异质面板模型及应用研究

针对不可观测异质性非时变假设导致的删失变量偏差及推断无效问题,构建贝叶斯隐马尔科夫异质面板模型,刻画截面个体间的动态时变不可观测异质性,诊断经济系统环境中可能存在的隐性变点,设计相应的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛抽样算法估计模型参数,并对中国各地区的金融发展与城乡收入差距关系进行实证分析,捕捉到金融发展与城乡收入差距间长期稳定关系的隐性变化,发现了区域个体不可观测异质性存在的动态时变特征。研究结果表明各参数的迭代轨迹收敛且估计误差非常小,验证了贝叶斯隐马尔科夫异质面板模型的有效性。     

因子分析在电力上市公司经营业绩评价中的应用

文章运用SPSS13.0软件,对沪深电力行业43家上市公司2004年度的11个主要财务指标进行了因子分析,从中提取出5个具有一定含义的因子,以评价各公司的综合经营业绩,并对这些公司的整体情况进行了分析与讨论。文章还提出:应结合不同的主体和不同的时期来确定评价角度,以作出客观有效的经营业绩评价。     

数字图书馆知识管理的创新

阐述数字图书馆知识管理的涵义以及知识管理创新的内容,并通过一些国内外的知识管理案例来说明。理论与实践结合,具有一定的现实意义。     

Coordinating Service‐Sensitive Demand and Capacity by Adaptive Decision Making: An Application of Case‐Based Decision Theory*

The subject of this article is the simultaneous choice of product price and manufacturing capacity if demand is stochastic and service‐level sensitive. In this setting, capacity as well as price have an impact on demand because several aspects of service level depend on capacity. For example, delivery time will be reduced if capacity is increased given a constant demand rate. We illustrate the relationship between service level, capacity, and demand reaction by a stylized application problem from the after‐sales services industry. The reaction of customers to variations in service level and price is represented by a kinked price‐demand‐rate function. We first derive the optimal price‐capacity combination for the resulting decision problem under full information. Subsequently, we focus on a decision maker (DM) who lacks complete knowledge of the demand function. Hence the DM is unable to anticipate the service level and consequently cannot identify the optimal solution. However, the DM will acquire additional information during the sales process and use it in subsequent revisions of the price‐capacity decision. Thus, this decision making is adaptive and based on experience. In contrast to the literature, which assumes certain repetitive procedures somewhat ad hoc, we develop an adaptive decision process based on case‐based decision theory (CBDT) for the price‐capacity problem. Finally, we show that a CBDT DM in our setting eventually finds the optimal solution, if the DM sets the price based on absorption costs and adequately adjusts the capacity with respect to the observed demand.     

Real Estate Taxation and Commercial Mortgage Underwriting

Recent disclosures about problem commercial real estate loans have exposed the underwriting process to intense scrutiny. This study focuses on mortgage loan underwriters of life insurance companies. After a review of the tax changes that affected commercial real estate from 1969 through 1988, the study tests how loan underwriters reacted to changes in tax benefits. To overcome the interdependent effects of interest rates and capitalization rates, a variation of the Black-Scholes pricing model is used to test the impact of changes in tax benefits. The results indicate that the underwriters do not fully incorporate the value of tax benefits in the underwriting decision. During the period of the largest tax benefits, 1982 to 1986, underwriters became more conservative and increased their equity requirements.     

Determining the Critical Elements of Just-In-Time Implementation

There are a limited number of papers dealing primarily with the implementation aspect of JIT. While the literature shows almost general agreement on the critical elements of JIT implementation, few empirical studies exist to support the proposed elements. The purpose of this study is to identify the elements of JIT implementation that are required to ensure successful implementation. A number of implementation elements were identified and subsequently grouped into a hierarchical structure consisting of four broader elements. Criteria were selected as measures of the level of implementation success. Analysis revealed that only a few of the identified elements were indeed required for successful JIT implementation.     

Chance Constrained Programming Approach to Empirical Analyses of Mutual Fund Investment Strategies*

Chance constrained programming concepts are used to formalize risk and return relations which are then modeled for use in an empirical study of mutual fund behavior during the period 1984 through 1988. The publicly announced strategies of individual funds are used to form ex ante risk classifications which are employed in examining ex post performance. Negative relations between risk and return held in every year of the period studied. The bearing of these negative risk-return findings for the Bowman paradox, as studied in the strategic management literature, are thus extended from the industrial firms studied by Bowman (and others) and shown to be present even in these investment oriented mutual funds in each of the years of the great bull market from 1984 through 1988. Finally, our use of chance constrained programming enables us to separate risk from return behavior and evaluate their relative strengths as sources of these negative relations, which are found to be more in the returns than the risks.