Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems

Group concept mapping (GCM) has been successfully employed in program planning and evaluation for over 25 years. The broader set of systems thinking methodologies (of which GCM is one), have only recently found their way into the field. We present an overview of systems thinking emerging from a system dynamics (SD) perspective, and illustrate the potential synergy between GCM and SD. As with GCM, participatory processes are frequently employed when building SD models; however, it can be challenging to engage a large and diverse group of stakeholders in the iterative cycles of divergent thinking and consensus building required, while maintaining a broad perspective on the issue being studied. GCM provides a compelling resource for overcoming this challenge, by richly engaging a diverse set of stakeholders in broad exploration, structuring, and prioritization. SD provides an opportunity to extend GCM findings by embedding constructs in a testable hypothesis (SD model) describing how system structure and changes in constructs affect outcomes over time. SD can be used to simulate the hypothesized dynamics inherent in GCM concept maps. We illustrate the potential of the marriage of these methodologies in a case study of BECOMING, a federally-funded program aimed at strengthening the cross-sector system of care for youth with severe emotional disturbances.     

学分绩点制在武汉七所部属高校的实践与探索

学分绩点制是一种能客观衡量学生学习质量的教学管理制度。学分绩点制在武汉地区七校联合办学实践中的应用,为联合办学的可持续发展提供了有益的探索。     

中国高校泛行政化的源与流——基于对古代官学系统的图谱分析

高校的泛行政化并不是当下才有的现象,而是古已有之。弄清高校的这种泛行政化现象的源头所在以及高校泛行政化的具体流变过程,需要对我国古代官学系统进行系统的分析,用图谱演绎的方法来对古代官学系统演进过程进行研究,是实现对高校泛行政化溯本求源的有效方法之一。     

Beyond mere information transfer: The importance of a relational approach to market-related internal communication

Despite the significance of relationship management in any information provision or exchange, public relations scholarship has typically focused on examining the underlying internal communication processes from a transactional perspective. These processes are frequently associated with organizational information dissemination, overlooking other critical contents to make strategic decisions. This study draws market information processing into the debate about internal communication, providing a greater understanding of how a relational approach can improve market intelligence dissemination. Results show that an effective management of market knowledge requires the use of such an approach, which in turn, cultivates the shared interpretation of market information and innovation performance. The findings stimulate fresh discussion about the nature and development of internal communication knowledge and practice.     

Generalized information matrix tests for copulas

We propose a family of goodness-of-fit tests for copulas. The tests use generalizations of the information matrix (IM) equality of White and so relate to the copula test proposed by Huang and Prokhorov. The idea is that eigenspectrum-based statements of the IM equality reduce the degrees of freedom of the test’s asymptotic distribution and lead to better size-power properties, even in high dimensions. The gains are especially pronounced for vine copulas, where additional benefits come from simplifications of score functions and the Hessian. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the generalized tests, accounting for the nonparametric estimation of the marginals and apply a parametric bootstrap procedure, valid when asymptotic critical values are inaccurate. In Monte Carlo simulations, we study the behavior of the new tests, compare them with several Cramer–von Mises type tests and confirm the desired properties of the new tests in high dimensions.     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

COWORDS: a probabilistic model for multiple word clouds

Word clouds constitute one of the most popular statistical tools for the visual analysis of text documents because they provide users with a quick and intuitive understanding of the content. Despite their popularity for visualizing single documents, word clouds are not appropriate to compare different text documents. Independently generating word clouds for each document leads to configurations where the same word is typically located in widely different positions. This makes it very difficult to compare two or more word clouds. This paper introduces COWORDS, a new stochastic algorithm to create multiple word clouds, including one for each document. The shared words in multiple documents are placed in the same position in all clouds. Similar documents produce similar and compact clouds, making it easier to simultaneously compare and interpret several word clouds. The algorithm is based on a probability distribution in which the most probable configurations are those with a desirable visual aspect, such as a low value for the total distance between the words in all clouds. The algorithm output is a set of word clouds that are randomly selected from this probability distribution. The selection procedure uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. We present several examples that illustrate the performance and visual results that can be obtained by our algorithm.     

21世纪中国学界辽金经济史研究回顾与展望

辽金经济史一直是学者研究的重点,21世纪以来学界在辽金农业概况、发展原因、土地制度,畜牧业结构,货币种类、税收制度及贸易几个方面研究深入,取得了丰硕的成果。但对区域农业特点、土地买卖及粮食供给、辽金农业思想史等问题缺乏深入研究。     

试论辽代节日朝贺制度的建构

辽朝享国二百余年,《辽史·百官志》载其属国达七十八个,在如此庞大的帝国势力范围内能够稳固其统治,不仅是因为契丹拥有强悍的军事力量,更重要的是辽朝建构了有效控御四方的节日朝贺体系。辽代境内、境外、绝域之国等朝贺体系的架构,体现了辽代朝贺制度的蕃汉结合、重威辅恩、礼仪不完备等特点。为了更好地运行朝贺制度,辽代还设立了敌烈麻都司、宣徽院、驿馆、四方馆、地方府州等专门负责机构。节日朝贺制度作为朝贡制度的重要组成部分,渐趋凸显其在辽朝处理内外关系的作用,并逐渐形成了以辽为中心的东亚朝贡体系。     

中国人口学科国际化水平及其影响因素

国际化是学科成熟与发展的一个重要指标。但是作为世界人口第一大国,中国人口学科的国际化并没有发展到一个相对应的水平。在界定了学科国际化概念的基础上,借助问卷调查数据来分析中国人口学科国际化的现状,探讨中国人口科学继续与国际学界融合所面临的困难及其主要原因。结果表明,中国人口学的国际化明显处于不断萎缩的态势,其直接动因和深层次缘由分别是整个人口学界的国际化意识与能力的减弱,以及人口学科文化与制度本身存在的缺陷。加强国际化的学科文化建设与建立相配套的学科制度是提高中国人口学科国际化水平的重要途径。