定增折价率监管的有效性研究

定向增发是上市公司重要的再融资工具,如何完善监管制度以保障定向增发市场平稳有序发展是全面深化改革和实现高质量发展的关键环节。结合定向增发合理折价率的决定机制及双边随机前沿模型,本文提出了有效识别“合理”与“非合理”折价的方法,并利用我国定向增发市场数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,折价率实施“九折原则”以来,我国定向增发中“折价不足” 发行比例远远高于 “过度折价”的比例,并且“过度溢价”增发会显著拉升股价实现利益输送。只强调限制折价比例的监管思路,既达不到有效抑制利益输送的目的,又会挫伤投资者参与定向增发投资的积极性。本文不仅对有关定向增发折价率的研究进行了有益拓展,而且为进一步优化调整定向增发折价监管方式提供了政策参考。     

我国居民的消费行为与长期经济增长

消费是社会再生产的重要环节, 消费需求的增长是拉动长期经济增长的主要动力。近年来, 受到制度环境变化的影响, 我国居民的风险意识大大增强, 从而导致消费萎缩和储蓄急剧增加, 这严重影响到我国经济的长期增长。为此, 在推进企业转制的同时, 必须加紧建立能够促进就业与收入持续增长的社会稳定机制, 为长期经济增长提供强劲持久的动力     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.     

非物质文化遗产保护中的政府职责研究——基于杨柳青年画保护的调查

政府是非物质文化遗产保护中的主导者,应该承担提供资金保障、制定政策法规、组织管理保护主体和传承主体、建立良好的管理体制机制以及监管保护效果的职责。而在非物质文化遗产保护实践中政府多存在管办不分、管理的越位缺位等职责混乱现象,导致非物质文化遗产保护中出现建设性破坏、保护性破坏、保护主体缺失以及保护环境不利等问题。结合先进国家的经验指出,树立正确的非遗保护理念是政府正确履行职责的前提;明确职责定位是正确履行职责的保障;合理履行职责可以避免管办不分、管理缺位越位的问题;加强监督考核机制,可以保障政府职责履行效能。     

High-order extensions of the Double Chain Markov Model

The Double Chain Markov Model is a fully Markovian model for the representation of time-series in random environments. In this article, we show that it can handle transitions of high-order between both a set of observations and a set of hidden states. In order to reduce the number of parameters, each transition matrix can be replaced by a Mixture Transition Distribution model. We provide a complete derivation of the algorithms needed to compute the model. Three applications, the analysis of a sequence of DNA, the song of the wood pewee, and the behavior of young monkeys show that this model is of great interest for the representation of data that can be decomposed into a finite set of patterns.     

Meta-cognition and resistance to political persuasion: evidence from a three-wave panel study

ABSTRACT

We investigate the temporal course of meta-cognition and resistance processes following exposure to counter-attitudinal information in the 2012 Presidential election. Using a unique 3-wave survey panel design, we tracked eligible voters during the last months of the 2012 campaign and experimentally manipulated exposure to negative political messages targeting Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on an online platform. As predicted, we found that politically unengaged (vs. engaged) individuals were less likely to counter-argue a message attacking their favored candidate. Resistance, in turn, led to increased attitudinal certainty, polarization, and correspondence with actual voting behavior over the course of the campaign. These findings provide the first analysis of the longitudinal effects of meta-cognitive processes underlying persuasion for real-world attitude change and behavior.     

1949年国民党上海市银行的接收清理与结束

上海市银行于1929年由上海市政府设立,是国民党政府时期的一家典型地方政府银行。上海解放后,根据新民主主义经济政策的规定,被新中国政府列入接管的范围。1949年原国民党上海市银行被接收、清理和结束表明,原上海市银行的体制、机制、组织人事,更多地带有政府机关的特征,其业务经营也主要服务于原上海地方政府的财政收支及日常运作,这是该银行的基本属性使然。上海市银行与四行二局往来联系较密切,是整个官僚资本金融体系的重要组成部分。     

What can we learn from twin studies? A comprehensive evaluation of the equal environments assumption

Twin studies are a major source of information about genetic effects on behavior, but they depend on a controversial assumption known as the equal environments assumption (EEA): that similarity in co-twins’ environments is not predictive of similarity in co-twin outcomes. Although evidence has largely supported the EEA, critics have claimed that environmental similarity has not been measured well, and most studies of the EEA have focused on outcomes related to health and psychology. This article addresses these limitations through (1) a reanalysis of data from the most cited study of the EEA, Loehlin and Nichols (1976), using better measures, and through (2) an analysis of nationally representative twin data from MIDUS using more comprehensive controls on a wider variety of outcomes than previous studies. Results support a middle ground position; it is likely that the EEA is not strictly valid for most outcomes, but the resulting bias is likely modest.     

观光农业从业户应对成本上升的策略研究——基于京郊十余家典型从业户的案例分析

观光农业因其特殊的产业性质面临着当前农业生产成本和消费品价格持续上涨的双重压力.如何应对这一挑战是城郊型农业和农村发展的重要任务.文章基于京郊十余家观光农业从业农户的案例研究表明：雇工费、食材费、生产资料费用、能源成本、设施维护更换费用上涨最为明显;农户则多采取价格策略、外出购置转向内部生产、要素投入的替代、发挥规模效益、寻求外界帮助、增加收益来源等方式应对,整体上达到了一定的效果;而不同农户所采取何种应对策略又受到家庭兼业状态、政府支持措施、合作组织发展等因素的明显影响.     

组织行为学发展的新领域——积极组织行为学

积极组织行为学是组织行为学科在21世纪才兴起的新的研究领域,由鲁森斯于2002年正式提出,强调对人类心理优势的开发与管理。与传统组织行为学将研究领域的重点放在解决管理者和员工的机能失调、冲突、工作压力等问题上所不同的是,积极组织行为学将研究重点放在如何采取积极的方法和怎样发挥员工优势以提高组织的绩效水平上。其研究范畴包括信心/自我效能、希望、乐观、主观幸福感、情绪智力等,具备积极性、独立性、可测量性、可开发性、有助于提高工作绩效等基本特征。