Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis in Stationary Nonlinear Models of Unknown Functional Form

In this article, we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space. We study the performance of our tests by a Monte Carlo experiment and compare these to the most widely used linear test. Our tests appear to be well-sized and have reasonably good power properties.     

FDI 对安徽省装备制造业发展的影响分析

外商直接投资（FDI）在拓宽国内资金需求渠道的同时,具有较强的技术溢出效应,迎合了装备制造业资本和技术密集的双重特征。当前,安徽省装备制造业处在资本密集型占主导的发展阶段,对 FDI的偏好性较强。研究表明,安徽省装备制造业与FDI间具有较强的相关性,FDI能够有效促进安徽省装备制造业发展,但安徽省装备制造业对FDI的吸引力较弱,且各具体行业对 FDI依赖程度存在较大差异。据此提出相应的建议,一方面,安徽省应注重装备制造业转型升级,提升行业整体竞争力;另一方面,要优化投资环境,增强安徽省装备制造业对FDI的引致能力。     

A股上市公司变相财务操纵对行业估值的影响

关于上市公司利润操控的相关研究主要是将净利润作为一个事关操控的敏感指标,但在监管与被监管双方努力的博弈下,其可被操纵的潜力已被充分挖掘。从实证角度关注上市公司财务操纵的其他可操作途径,其中就包括一些看似合理的变相财务操纵手段。按照2001年中国证监会公布的《上市公司行业分类指引》,把我国上市企业分为13个行业,对不同行业内企业2003—2013年部分主观可操控的财务指标与其所在行业的平均市盈率进行格兰杰因果检验和回归分析,结果表明,一些行业内企业的部分财务指标与其所在行业的平均市盈率存在领先与滞后关系,并且影响作用显著。     

过错在因果关系判断中的影响

过错与因果关系共同作为侵权行为的构成要件,并非彼此间毫无联系,过错对于因果关系的判断有重要影响,侵权人、受害人、第三人的过错均影响到因果关系判断,但过错并非在因果关系判断中独立发挥作用,过错须和原因力结合在一起确定侵权责任范围,这样才能更接近公平.     

侵权法中的机会丧失理论

机会丧失理论即加害人的加害行为导致受害人获得利益或避免损害的机会丧失时,加害人应对此种机会的丧失承担损害赔偿责任的学说。它是对传统侵权法理论的修正和补充,并对损害、因果关系等侵权构成要件的传统学说造成了一定冲击。该理论在英美法系国家以及德国、法国等国的司法实践中多有运用,但关于其适用及其适用范围尚存诸多争议。我国机会丧失案件并不少见,但却没有采纳机会丧失理论。本文在介绍机会丧失理论的内涵及各国发展状况的基础上,着重探讨它在侵权法上适用的法律和政策方面的主要争议,并提出可供我国司法实践借鉴的建议。     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

电价波动的产业结构效应——基于CGE模型的分析

为探索电价波动与产业结构变化的关系,本文主要应用CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型对中国的电价波动与产业结构变化进行了实证研究。结果表明,各行业产出对电价的交叉弹性系数虽然很小,但耗电越多的行业对电价变化的反映越敏感。因此,本文认为,出于抑制高耗能产业膨胀、促进能效提高的目的,可以适当提高电价,但不能对电价的产业结构效应期望过高。同时应采取适当的电价调整方式,以避免电价波动的其他负面影响,促进电力合理利用和经济社会的可持续发展。     

中国蔬菜价格波动与通货膨胀——基于波动来源的分解

利用Census X12季节调整和H-P滤波法,将蔬菜价格波动来源分解为趋势变动、季节变动、循环变动和不规则变动要素。利用Bootstrap因果检验与VAR模型,考察了蔬菜价格波动来源的分解因素与中国通货膨胀的关联性。结果表明,蔬菜价格波动影响消费者物价指数的主要渠道是通过季节变动和不规则变动要素;季节变动因素对消费者物价指数的影响呈季节周期性;不规则变动对消费者物价指数的冲击在最初时最显著,随后逐渐减弱。政策含义为,降低公众的通胀预期、促进蔬菜跨区域流通、控制蔬菜运输的物流成本、健全政府灾害天气应急响应机制均有利于减缓CPI上涨。     

股指期货价格发现功能研究——基于印度Nifty50股指期货的实证分析

使用基于VECM（向量误差修正模型）的Granger因果关系检验法验证了印度Nifty50股指期货与现货市场之间的价格发现过程,结果发现现货市场在价格发现过程中占主导地位,在新兴市场国家的印度,股指期货缺乏价格发现功能。     

Pity and pragmatism: understandings of disability in northeast Thailand

Cultural models of illness causation and treatment inform community understandings of and responses to disability. Data collected as part of a multi‐country study, conducted in 2002–2007, illustrate how villagers from northeastern Thailand conceptualise disability (pikarn). Local understandings of causality are shaped by Buddhist beliefs in accumulated demerit, and this significantly influences attitudes towards illness, adversity and bodily states. Buddhist notions of love and compassion (metta and kurana) inform appropriate responses to people living with disabilities, while local distinctions of ability and disability inform expressions of sympathy and/or pity (songsarn), with implications for the social participation of people with a disability.