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101.
In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge. 相似文献
102.
103.
《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(4):717-741
In the study of the stochastic behaviour of the lifetime of an element as a function of its length, it is often observed that the failure time (or lifetime) decreases as the length increases. In probabilistic terms, such an idea can be expressed as follows. Let T be the lifetime of a specimen of length x, so the survival function, which denotes the probability that an element of length x survives till time t, will be given by ST (t, x) = P(T > t/α(x), where α(x) is a monotonically decreasing function. In particular, it is often assumed that T has a Weibull distribution. In this paper, we propose a generalization of this Weibull model by assuming that the distribution of T is Generalized gamma (GG). Since the GG model contains the Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models as special and limiting cases, a GG regression model is an appropriate tool for describing the size effect on the lifetime and for selecting among the embedded models. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for the GG regression model with α(x) = cxb . As a special case this provide an alternative to the usual approach to estimation for the GG distribution which involves reparametrization. Related parametric inference issues are addressed and illustrated using two experimental data sets. Some discussion of censored data is also provided. 相似文献
104.
Concept mapping served as the starting point for the aim of capturing the comprehensive structure of the construct of ‘health literacy.’ Ideas about health literacy were generated by 99 experts and resulted in 105 statements that were subsequently organized by 27 experts in an unstructured card sorting. Multidimensional scaling was applied to the sorting data and a two and three-dimensional solution was computed. The three dimensional solution was used in subsequent cluster analysis and resulted in a concept map of nine “clusters”: (1) self-regulation, (2) self-perception, (3) proactive approach to health, (4) basic literacy and numeracy skills, (5) information appraisal, (6) information search, (7) health care system knowledge and acting, (8) communication and cooperation, and (9) beneficial personality traits. Subsequently, this concept map served as a starting point for developing a “qualitative” structural model of health literacy and a questionnaire for the measurement of health literacy. On the basis of questionnaire data, a “quantitative” structural model was created by first applying exploratory factor analyses (EFA) and then cross-validating the model with confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). Concept mapping proved to be a highly valuable tool for the process of model building up to translational research in the “real world”. 相似文献
105.
In an investigation of 418 employees in the Norwegian Postal Service, employees with high learning opportunities and high decision authority were found to be better off on psychological functioning, health and organizational outcome variables than employees with low scores on these variables. Decision authority and learning opportunities had specific and independent impact on subjective health, psychological functioning, coping style and organizational outcome variables. There were, however, also interaction effects between demands, learning opportunities, and decision authority on subjective health. Learning opportunities and decision authority were operationalized with a questionnaire, supplemented with questions on the opportunities to learn skills beyond the present job situation. It is suggested that this is a particularly important dimension for coping with the present day rapid changes in working life, where the objective for many workers will be to broaden their repertoire and competence to increase their flexibility in the labour market. 相似文献
106.
Hisashi Tanizaki 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(12):2805-2834
The rejection sampling filter and smoother, proposed by Tanizaki (1996, 1999), Tanizaki and Mariano (1998) and Hiirzeler and Kiinsch (1998), take a lot of time computationally. The Markov chain Monte Carlo smoother, developed by Carlin, Poison and StofFer (1992), Carter and Kohn (1994, 1996) and Geweke and Tanizaki (1999a, 1999b), does not show a good performance depending on noniinearity and nonnormality of the system in the sense of the root mean square error criterion, which reason comes from slow convergence of the Gibbs sampler. Taking into account these problems, we propose the nonlinear and non-Gaussian filter and smoother which have much less computational burden and give us relatively better state estimates, although the proposed estimator does not yield the optimal state estimates in the sense of the minimum mean square error. The proposed filter and smoother are called the quasi-optimal filter and quasi-optimal smoother in this paper. Finally, through some Monte Carlo studies, the quasi-optimal filter and smoother are compared with the rejection sampling procedure and the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. 相似文献
107.
王辉 《北华大学学报(社会科学版)》2012,13(6):15-19
从语言作为问题、语言作为权利、语言作为资源三个角度考察,澳大利亚百年来的语言政策可划分为四个时期,即放任化时期、同化时期、多元化时期和优先化时期。在全面分析影响澳大利亚制定语言政策的基本规划观念的基础上,我们建立了一个基于语言规划观的,能够反映澳大利亚语言政策演变情况的澳大利亚语言政策模型。这个模型对分析中国或其他国家的语言政策也有一定价值。 相似文献
108.
魏晓斌 《湖南工程学院学报(社会科学版)》2010,20(3)
同隐喻一样,借代也是一种重要的思维方式和认知工具.然而,长期以来,借代研究仍然拘泥于修辞范畴,其功能得不到充分体现.本文从认知角度出发,在引入理想化认知模型(ICM)的基础上对借代的工作机制进行重新探讨和认识,同时对其在语篇连贯和衔接方面所发挥的重要作用也进行了初步研究. 相似文献
109.
陶绍兴 《合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2011,25(3):84-89
随着"华盛顿共识"的式微,"中国模式"正日益兴起。当前,理论界热议中的"中国模式"尚处于一种能指的狂欢状态。从方法论上来看,分析还原论的方法堵塞了认知"中国模式"的道路,这种方法表征的是思维的初级阶段。打破目前僵局的唯一路径,就是要彻底变革思维方式,用马克思的方法——总体性的方法研究马克思主义中国化进程中的事物——"中国模式",这种方法的基本运思理路是面向总体,维护总体与获得总体。惟此,"中国模式"方能走向澄明之境。 相似文献
110.
Most models for incomplete data are formulated within the selection model framework. Pattern-mixture models are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, both from an interpretational as well as from a computational point of view (Little 1993, Hogan and Laird 1997, Ekholm and Skinner 1998). Whereas most applications are either for continuous normally distributed data or for simplified categorical settings such as contingency tables, we show how a multivariate odds ratio model (Molenberghs and Lesaffre 1994, 1998) can be used to fit pattern-mixture models to repeated binary outcomes with continuous covariates. Apart from point estimation, useful methods for interval estimation are presented and data from a clinical study are analyzed to illustrate the methods. 相似文献