Estimation of Reliability Parameters Under Incomplete Primary Information

We consider the procedure for small-sample estimation of reliability parameters. The main shortcomings of the classical methods and the Bayesian approach are analyzed. Models that find robust Bayesian estimates are proposed. The sensitivity of the Bayesian estimates to the choice of the prior distribution functions is investigated using models that find upper and lower bounds. The proposed models reduce to optimization problems in the space of distribution functions.     

明代救灾的基本程序与效率

明代已形成一套包括急赈、报灾、勘灾、决策、审户、赈济等环节的较为完善的救灾程序,这对于规范救灾行为、减少腐败是有利的。但在实际执行中,出现了机械化、绝对化问题,不少官员"拘于成法",导致救灾效率降低,故而临灾"便宜处置"呼声日益高涨。在完善救灾程序与提高救灾效率的平衡上,明代始终未能很好地把握,其中有二者内在矛盾的因素,也有通讯、交通条件落后的原因,更为主要的是明代政治因素的制约。     

信访之司法终局的实证考察与分析

信访被认为是当前司法境况下不得不为的制度,但它是否能够使社会变得更加公正,这一直是个引发争论的问题。我们实证考察的结果是,"自爱"是人的本性,即使司法公正,只要有持续的制度供给,上访就不可避免。当前的信访制度不但不能从根本上解决人们的诉求,反而使社会处于不稳定中。若解决当下问题,切实维护公民权益,必须要进一步推进体制改革,使司法成为信访的终局程序,并保障司法机关依法独立行使司法权。     

行政规划中科学化原则实现的法制保障

行政规划的大量运用是现代行政管理的重要特征之一。行政规划的科学化原则在强调对社会资源的有效、合理利用,避免浪费上与生态文明建设的要求不谋而合。行政规划科学性原则的贯彻和实施需要确立科学的规划程序并建立健全行政规划的法定责任制。     

Truncation of the Bechhofer-Kiefer-Sobel sequential procedure for selecting the multinomial event which has the largest probability

In this article we study the effect of truncation on the performance of an open vector-at-a-time sequential sampling procedure (P^* _B) proposed by Bechhofer, Kiefer and Sobel , for selecting the multinomial event which has the largest probability. The performance of the truncated version (P^{* B} _T) is compared to that of the original basic procedure (P^* _B). The performance characteristics studied include the probability of a correct selection, the expected number of vector-observations (n) to terminate sampling, and the variance of n. Both procedures guarantee the specified probability of a correct selection. Exact results and Monte Carlo sampling results are obtained. It is shown that P^* _{B T}is far superior to P^* _B in terms of E{n} and Var{n}, particularly when the event probabilities are equal.The performance of P^* _{B T} is also compared to that of a closed vector-at-a-time sequential sampling procedure proposed for the same problem by Ramey and Alam; this procedure has here to fore been claimed to be the best one for this problem. It is shown that p^* _{B T} is superior to the Ramey-Alam procedure for most of the specifications of practical interest.     

The calculation of outlier detection statistics

This paper presents a routine that calculates four outlier detection statistics. The routine determines a series of points that are identified as possible outliers, and calculates the values that can be used to test them. These values can be used in an iterative procedure to detect multiple outliers.     

Tables for pairwise multiple comparisons using shaffer's modifiedsequentially-rejective procedure

A sequentially rejective (SR) testing procedure introduced by Holm (1979) and modified (MSR) by Shaffer (1986) is considered for testing all pairwise mean comparisons.For such comparisons, both the SR and MSR methods require that the observed test statistics be ordered and compared, each in turn, to appropriate percentiles on Student's t distribution.For the MSR method these percentiles are based on the maximum number of true null hypotheses remaining at each stage of the sequential procedure, given prior significance at previous stages, A function is developed for determining this number from the number of means being tested and the stage of the test.For a test of all pairwise comparisons, the logical implications which follow the rejection of a null hypothesis renders the MSR procedure uniformly more powerful than the SR procedure.Tables of percentiles for comparing K means, 3 < K < 6, using the MSR method are presented.These tables use Sidak's (1967) multiplicative inequality and simplify the use of t he MSR procedure.Several modifications to the MSR are suggested as a means of further increasing the power for testing the pairwise comparisons.General use of the MSR and the corresponding function for testing other parameters besides the mean is discussed.     

Three-stage and ‘accelerated’ sequential procedures for the mean of a normal population with known coefficient of variation

Three-stage and ‘accelerated’ sequential procedures are developed for estimating the mean of a normal population when the population coefficient of variation (CV) is known. In spite of the usual estimator, i.e. the sample mean, Searls' (1964 Searls, DT. (1964). The utilization of a known coefficient of variation in the estimation procedure. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc, 50: 1225–1226.  ) estimator is utilized for the estimation purpose. It is established that Searls' estimator dominates the sample mean under the two sampling schemes.     

Some sequential selection procedures for good regression models

In the past decade a number of fixed sampling methods have been developed for selecting the "best" or at least a "good" subset of vaiable in regression analysis. We are interested in deriving a sequential selection procedure to select a subset of a random size including equations. Tables for an example are given at the end of this paper