Replication with MTurk of the experimental design by Gangadharan,Grossman, Jones & Leister (2018): Charitable giving across donor types

Understanding the motivations behind charitable giving and the identification of donor types have aroused growing interest among researchers. The economic literature has highlighted the model of pure altruist and subsequently the more realistic model of impure altruist or warm-glow giver. The need to distinguish and empirically identify these types of donors has given rise to some economic experiments. This paper - using the platform by Amazon's Mechanical Turk with a large sample of participants (N = 1062) - shows the findings of a near replication of the experimental design by Gangadharan et al. (2018). Results are consistent with the original study and confirm the validity of the procedure and the ability to replicate a critical feature of the original design.     

DO BETTER PAID POLITICIANS PERFORM BETTER? DISENTANGLING INCENTIVES FROM SELECTION

The wage paid to politicians affects both the choice of citizens to run for office and the performance of those who are appointed. First, if skilled individuals shy away from politics because of higher opportunities in the private sector, an increase in politicians’ pay may change their mind. Second, if the re‐election prospects of incumbents depend on their in‐office deeds, a higher wage may foster performance. We use data on all Italian municipal governments from 1993 to 2001 and test these hypotheses in a quasi‐experimental setup. In Italy, the wage of mayors depends on population size and sharply rises at different thresholds. We apply a regression discontinuity design to the only threshold that uniquely identifies a wage increase: 5,000 inhabitants. Exploiting the existence of a two‐term limit, we further disentangle the composition from the incentive component of the effect of the wage on performance. Our results show that a higher wage attracts more‐educated candidates, and that better‐paid politicians size down the government machinery by improving efficiency. Importantly, most of this effect is driven by the selection of competent politicians, rather than by the incentive to be re‐elected.     

Perturbation analysis for an orthogonal least-squares estimator

Coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) are used to check the geometric integrity of component parts. The geometric constraints to which a part must conform, as defined e.g., by The American National Standards Institute, assume the use of some type of gauging system when inspecting the part. Statistical issues arise in interpretting CMM data in the inspection of part tolerances. We consider a set of n planar regions on the surface of a part. The unit vector normal to each plane is estimated by orthogonal least squares. The small-sample density of this estimator (on the unit sphere S²) is determined asymptotically as the variance of the CMM error approaches 0. To a first-degree approximation, this density is Fisher-von Mises. Diagnostics are reviewed to test the geometric constraint that the n planar regions are oriented correctly with respect to one another, and to test the flatness of planar regions.     

Confidence regions for the common mean vector of several multivariate normal populations

Suppose that there are independent samples available from several multivariate normal populations with the same mean vector m? but possibly different covariance matrices. The problem of developing a confidence region for the common mean vector based on all the samples is considered. An exact confidence region centered at a generalized version of the well-known Graybill-Deal estimator of m? is developed, and a multiple comparison procedure based on this confidence region is outlined. Necessary percentile points for constructing the confidence region are given for the two-sample case. For more than two samples, a convenient method of approximating the percentile points is suggested. Also, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the methods. Further, for the bivariate case, the proposed confidence region and the ones based on individual samples are compared numerically with respect to their expected areas. The numerical results indicate that the new confidence region is preferable to the single-sample versions for practical use.     

张学良联共思想初探

研究了张学良联共思想发展的轨迹,集中研究了九一八事变前后,集国仇家恨于一身的张学良思想发生的巨大变化,探讨了张学良联共思想产生的基础及客观必然性,分析了张学良和平统一思想及民主进步思想对联共思想形成的重要作用,以及张学良对实现第二次国共合作和抗日战争的胜利立下的不朽功勋。     

Pseudo confidence regions for the solution of a multivariate linear functional relationship

The problem of finding confidence regions (CR) for a q-variate vector γ given as the solution of a linear functional relationship (LFR) Λγ = μ is investigated. Here an m-variate vector μ and an m × q matrix Λ = (Λ₁, Λ₂,…, Λ_q) are unknown population means of an m(q+1)-variate normal distribution $\text{N}{}_{\mathrm{m(q+1)}}\text{(ζΩ?Σ)}$, where ζ′ = (μ′, Λ₁′, Λ₂′,…, Λ_q′Σ is an unknown, symmetric and positive definite m × m matrix and Ω is a known, symmetric and positive definite (q+1) × (q+1) matrix and ? denotes the Kronecker product. This problem is a generalization of the univariate special case for the ratio of normal means.A CR for γ with level of confidence 1 ? α, is given by a quadratic inequality, which yields the so-called ‘pseudo’ confidence regions (PCR) valid conditionally in subsets of the parameter space. Our discussion is focused on the ‘bounded pseudo’ confidence region (BPCR) given by the interior of a hyperellipsoid. The two conditions necessary for a BPCR to exist are shown to be the consistency conditions concerning the multivariate LFR. The probability that these conditions hold approaches one under ‘reasonable circumstances’ in many practical situations. Hence, we may have a BPCR with confidence approximately 1 ? α. Some simulation results are presented.     

孔祥熙和抗战时期的通货膨胀

抗日战争时期,孔祥熙处理通货膨胀的立场、观点和方式充满了矛盾性:一方面,他迫于某些客观原因不得不采用通货膨胀政策来支持国民政府的抗战需要,但又出于某种考虑竭力否认通货膨胀的存在;另一方面,他有时又承认通货膨胀的存在,并尽力抑制其发展.这种矛盾性归根结底是由通货膨胀问题本身的复杂性决定的,所以,它不仅不会成为我们简单批评和否定孔祥熙的理由,相反,它倒提醒我们,应当实事求是地分析、评价孔祥熙其人以及抗战时期国民政府的财政政策.只有这样,才能纠正某些传统学术观点和舆论认识的误区.     

广义数学期望

本文应用 H.L.P.均值于样本,构造了广义样本均值;为了将它用于参数估计,根据替换法则(Substitution rule),推广了数学期望的定义,同时引入新的无偏性.最后应用广义数学期望的基本性质推出若干结论(定理1～4),说明在参数估计方面应用广义均值是有意义的.     

释甲骨文中的“紤”字

甲骨文中的“紤”,为一种丝织品,在H3卜辞中,“紤”有数量、大小、延伸之占,用于宗庙中;由此为探讨“紤”字提供了条件;结合文献材料,考其字为宗庙中所称的“斧”、“黼”、“康(依)”一物三名的一种丝织物品;此字对考察商代宗庙设置,也具有重大意义。     

POLITICIANS AT WORK: THE PRIVATE RETURNS AND SOCIAL COSTS OF POLITICAL CONNECTIONS

We quantify the private returns and social costs of political connections exploiting a unique longitudinal dataset that combines matched employer–employee data for a representative sample of Italian firms with administrative archives on the universe of individuals appointed in local governments over the period 1985–1997. According to our results, the revenue premium granted by political connections amounts to 5.7% on average, it is obtained through changes in domestic sales but not in exports, and it is not related to improvements in firm productivity. The connection premium is positive for upstream producers for the public administration only, and larger (up to 22%) in areas characterized by high public expenditure and high levels of corruption. These findings suggest that the gains in market power derive from public demand shifts towards politically connected firms. We estimate that such shifts reduce the provision of public goods by approximately 20%.