地表温度过程的时间序列分析

分析了西藏的湍流通量数据和地表温度数据,提出了表征地表温度变化特征的地表温度特征量。运用时间序列分析的方法,得到地表温度特征量和湍流通量之间的传递函数模型,为进一步研究地表温度的时间尺度效应和时间滞后效应打下了基础。     

当代女性身体消费的伦理反思

消费社会的来临,在商业机制的鼓动之下,女性身体获得了前所未有的消费＂自由和解放＂。表面看来,这是女性＂自由的选择＂,女性身体的＂自由和解放＂;其实质上是深受＂美丽暴政＂的凌辱,女性身体成了消费对象,女性的身体内涵发生嬗变,受强制程度比以往更加强烈。     

试论古代汉语汉字的隐性和显性

隐性和显性之说在汉语言文字里具有普遍性,在汉字、语音、词汇、语法等诸方面均有体现。隐性和显性之说可以用来解释汉语言文字中不少难以说明的现象。我们应当用新的视角对此学说予以关注。     

我国女子跳远运动员起跳技术的运动学分析

选择目前我国优秀女子跳远运动员的起跳动作作为研究范围,通过运动图像解析系统对在比赛现场得到的相关运动学参数进行了分析.试图找出目前我国女子跳远与世界水平之间的差距,为我国女子跳远运动训练提供参考和依据.分析结果表明,我国女子跳远运动员起跳技术比较成熟,但起跳缓冲技术较差,起跳时间高于世界优秀运动员.     

运用表面光电压技术对半导体表面光电特性的研究

对运用表面光电压技术(SPS)对半导体材料光电性质的研究进行了综述,系统阐述了表面光电压谱(SPS)和场诱导表面光电压谱(FISPS)在测定半导体类型、表面态及其能级位置、表面电荷分布、半导体的能带隙等方面所表现出的优越性质.研究了半导体能带隙所表现出的特有性质.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of the three way receiver operating characteristic surface

In many situations the diagnostic decision is not limited to a binary choice. Binary statistical tools such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) need to be expanded to address three-category classification problem. Previous authors have suggest various ways to model the extension of AUC but not the ROC surface. Only simple parametric approaches are proposed for modeling the ROC measure under the assumption that test results all follow normal distributions. We study the estimation methods of three-dimensional ROC surfaces with nonparametric and semiparametric estimators. Asymptotical results are provided as a basis for statistical inference. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of our proposed methods in finite samples. We consider an Alzheimer's disease example from a clinical study in the US as an illustration. The nonparametric and semiparametric modelling approaches for the three way ROC analysis can be readily generalized to diagnostic problems with more than three classes.     

Bayesian credible intervals for response surface optima

In response surface methodology, one is usually interested in estimating the optimal conditions based on a small number of experimental runs which are designed to optimally sample the experimental space. Typically, regression models are constructed from the experimental data and interrogated in order to provide a point estimate of the independent variable settings predicted to optimize the response. Unfortunately, these point estimates are rarely accompanied with uncertainty intervals. Though classical frequentist confidence intervals can be constructed for unconstrained quadratic models, higher order, constrained or nonlinear models are often encountered in practice. Existing techniques for constructing uncertainty estimates in such situations have not been implemented widely, due in part to the need to set adjustable parameters or because of limited or difficult applicability to constrained or nonlinear problems. To address these limitations a Bayesian method of determining credible intervals for response surface optima was developed. The approach shows good coverage probabilities on two test problems, is straightforward to implement and is readily applicable to the kind of constrained and/or nonlinear problems that frequently appear in practice.     

湘西土家族苗族自治州扶贫开发的历史反思

经过 2 0年的艰苦奋斗 ,湘西土家族苗族自治州的扶贫开发取得了显著成效 ,基本实现了预期的扶贫工作目标。但是 ,全州仍然有相当部分农村人口尚未解决温饱问题 ,扶贫任务还十分艰巨。本文从全国反贫困战略的角度 ,梳理了湘西州扶贫开发的基本过程 ,评述了扶贫开发的思路和举措 ,总结了 2 0年扶贫开发的基本经验 ,对于推动下一步的扶贫开发工作具有一定的启发作用。     

Three-group ROC predictive analysis for ordinal outcomes

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning, and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate among three-ordered classes or groups. In this article, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for three-group ROC analysis for ordinal outcomes is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modeling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. This article also includes results on the volumes under the ROC surfaces and consideration of the choice of decision thresholds for the diagnosis. Two examples are provided to illustrate our method.     

双液注浆锚管加固在渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道中的应用

通过乌坑坝隧道北京端左线冲沟地段的施工实例，介绍渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道地表双液注浆锚管加固的施工方法，并对加固效果及其优缺点进行分析．