试论马克思恩格斯辩证唯物主义与历史唯物主义思想对当代的价值与启示

在世界陷入新一轮金融危机的情况下,人们重新发现一个多世纪前的马克思主义以其真理性的理论准确地预测并指导着人们的实践,自苏东剧变后受到冷遇的马克思主义再次被世人正视。文章通过分析马克思恩格斯辩证唯物主义与历史唯物主义思想,对当今国内外重大理论和现实问题进行分析,并提出这些思想给我们的启示。     

唯物史观与《资本论》的创作过程

《资本论》的创作过程是马克思从政治经济学的研究开始,经历了政治经济学研究对象和方法的确定、理论体系的构建,最后明确为写作《资本论》“四卷结构”的过程.马克思对政治经济学研究的过程,是马克思创立唯物史观并论证其科学性的过程.唯物史观的创立及运用,使马克思在对政治经济学理论体系的结构研究中,逐步明确了《资本论》的研究任务,《资本论》“四卷结构”的形成是政治经济学理论体系的结构整体拓展的重要方面.唯物史观的创立及运用,也使马克思在《资本论》的创作中,逐步明确了研究对象,并把对社会生产关系的分析放到了社会矛盾运动的整体中.     

Age at First Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland, 1252–1478

In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.     

<史记>"孔子生年"索源

自异载孔子生年之《史记》问世,二千余年孔诞之争不决;然,《史记》“鲁襄公二十二年”者,何所据源,诚当考辨析明之。考《世本》载记孔子生年说,纯系子虚乌有。至今所见文献,可为《史记》“孔子生年”载记之源者,惟公、谷二传《春秋》耳;不过司马迁之误解《春秋》历纪,乃助后世曲纪孔子生辰千有余年矣．     

高校"树人"的历史责任

高校承担着培育“四有”新人的历史责任。为此 ,高等教育必须坚持党的教育方针不动摇 ,与时俱进 ,迎接挑战 ,切实加强和改进新时期大学生思想政治教育工作     

现实的人与历史主体

对历史主体的理解 ,不能停留在一般的人的层面上。历史主体是现实的人即“现在”的人。现实的人的历史主体地位 ,是通过建构历史过程而确证的 ;因而现实的人的历史主体性是具有历史性和暂时性的存在。现实的人的历史主体性既在与作为“过去”的历史的关系中得以表现 ,也在与作为“未来”的历史的关系中得到表现 ,失去任何一方面 ,现实的人的历史主体性都是不完整的     

论"三个代表"思想在马克思主义党建史上的地位

"三个代表"思想,是中国共产党历史经验的科学总结,为党在新的历史时期加强自身建设指明了方向,是在新形势下坚持马克思主义党建学说基本原理的光辉典范,是马克思主义党建学说发展史上的新丰碑,具有重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义.     

On sources and narratives in historical social science: a realist critique of positivist and postmodernist epistemologies

Critics of the interdisciplinary enterprise of historical sociology commonly contend that the narrational accounts of past social phenomena provided by historians are inadequate to the task of theory-building and testing. In support of this negative assessment, opponents will adduce informational deficiencies in the available data (the standard positivist appraisal of historical evidence), or cite the interpretive anarchy that seemingly prevails at the narrative phase of emplotment (the skeptical, postmodernist contention that historiographic texts 'construct' rather than veridically represent the events they artfully contrive to signify). Both of these lines of criticism are unbalanced, and therefore seriously misleading as regards the epistemic foundations of historical-sociological inquiry. The 'social authenticity' and 'informational density' of historical evidence does allow for veridical reconstructions of the past, while the reflexive interpretive protocols of source criticism and the sociology of knowledge can be deployed to provide warrant for discriminating arbitrations between competing theories and narratives. The various epistemological deformations in the study of human affairs that have been encouraged by the old idiographic-nomothetic polarity - chronic ahistoricism within the social sciences, the atheoretical predilections of much conventional historiography - are rectifiable through the consolidation of a fully integrated sociological history, a unified and inclusive historical social science.     

基于拔靴滤波历史模拟法的黄金市场VaR测度研究

传统历史模拟法（THS，Tranditional Historical Simulation）和滤波历史模拟法（FHS，Filtered Historical Simulation）是国际商业银行使用最多的VaR预测方法。首先，论文在已有研究成果的基础上，构造了BHW（Bootstraped Hull and White）历史模拟法；然后，以国内黄金交易数据为样本，采用6种严谨的后验分析（Backtesting analysis）方法，对BHW方法及几种主流历史模拟法、GARCH模型方法的VaR预测精确性进行了实证分析。论文的主要结论包括：（1）综合论文所采用的几种金融风险测度方法来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的精确性，而实务界中广泛使用的THS方法则表现出了最差的精确性；（2）不同的历史模拟法受样本规模因素影响的程度显著不同，例如THS方法和HW方法均不同程度的受到了样本规模因素影响；（3）总体来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的风险预测精确性，可以作为测度黄金市场风险的选择之一。     

东海何处吊苍水─—张煌言在舟山遗迹考

本文以张煌言年谱与文集为主轴，结合实地考察，勾画出张煌言（苍水）在舟山遗迹的大概轮廓；从横向与纵向两个层面对张煌言的思想、实践和个人品质进行评价，揭示传统文化的久远影响及其意义。文章还就张煌言与郑成功以及文天祥的对比，对历史“公正”与“不公正”作了深层次的哲学思考。