基于“三性”分析的商业银行经营绩效综合评价模型

流动性、安全性和盈利性(统称为“三性”是商业银行经营管理的基本原则。它们之间既相互依存又相互冲突和矛盾。协调处理这三者之间的关系,一直是评价商业银行经营绩效的难点。本文所建立的综合评价模型,其指标体系涵盖了流动性、安全性和盈利性三个方面,将银行经营绩效层层分解为具体的财务报表数据,合理解决了同一指标在对“三性”产生不同影响时的评分问题。将“三性”之间的制约矛盾量化为具体的模型。     

锚定比率可以衡量股价高估吗？——基于崩盘风险视角的经验证据

股价高估指的是公司市场价值超出其内在价值的现象,但如何衡量内在价值一直存在争议。借鉴行为金融文献中锚定效应的概念,结合中国资本市场的特殊性,本文提出了锚定比率(简称"RPR")这一新的股价高估指标。为了证实该指标的有效性,本文利用事后的股价崩盘风险进行了相关检验。结果表明:第一,锚定比率与股价崩盘风险正相关;第二,更少的分析师跟踪、更多的散户持股以及更高的股票流动性均会强化锚定比率对股价崩盘风险的影响;第三,在控制常用的股价高估指标、两类代理问题和管理层"捂盘"行为后,本文的结果依然成立;第四,利用崩盘事件,本文证实了锚定比率会加剧股价下跌的程度,且长期来看股价会保持"惯性"而非"反转"。本文的研究表明投资者做决策时对股价高点存在明显的锚定效应,丰富了锚定效应在中国资本市场中的运用。更重要的是,本文提出了一个可能更适合于中国资本市场的股价高估指标,该指标意味着资本市场定价机制的不完善是导致股价高估和频繁崩盘的重要原因,这对于改善资本市场定价效率、降低股价崩盘风险有一定的启示作用。     

需求不确定和纵向约束的链与链竞争固定加价

基于需求不确定和纵向约束的链与链竞争环境,识别固定加价合同选择的绩效改进条件和博弈均衡特征,并进一步分析市场需求波动风险、市场规模、市场份额、价格竞争、零售商预测能力及固定加价比例对合同选择行为的影响。研究发现：当横向价格竞争相对较弱,零售终端的市场份额相对较大时,基于纵向约束的固定加价合同是实现供应链系统绩效改进的贝叶斯占优均衡;若此时固定加价的比例相对适中且市场需求波动风险不是很高,或者固定加价的比例较大但市场需求波动的风险相对适中,则固定加价合同是实现制造商和零售商Pareto绩效均改进的贝叶斯均衡;而若价格竞争非常激烈,则无纵向约束的批发价格合同能形成实现供应链系统绩效Pareto改进的占优贝叶斯均衡。     

基于Fréchet Copula的欧式脆弱期权定价

运用Fréchet Copula和相关性测度Kendallτ来刻画脆弱期权行权概率与对手方违约之间的相关结构,并给出了欧式脆弱看涨期权价格的闭形式表达式.然后由Kendallτ和标的资产价格与执行价格比率的不同数值,对欧式脆弱看涨期权的价格进行了数值计算和敏感性分析.结果表明,随着τ值的增加和标的资产价格与执行价格比率的降低,欧式脆弱看涨期权的价值相应地呈下降趋势,这与理论结果和实际都是相符的.     

文化意象的失落与扭曲:诗歌翻译之忌

意象是诗歌的生命,当意象涉及到某种文化的深层意蕴,这个意象就成为文化意象.在诗歌翻译中,对原作的文化意象进行任意取舍或扭曲都是不当的.对原作物象的尊重才是诗歌文化意象翻译的正途.     

Re-bounding EU citizenship from below: practices of healthcare for ‘(Il)legitimate EU Migrants’ in Italy

Since multiple crises are currently affecting Europe, interest on changes in intra-EU mobility patterns, policies and EU movers’ strategies of integration has re-emerged in academic debates. What seems to still lack to date is a focus on the chaining actors linking the macro level of policies and the micro level of individual strategies, that is, civil servants who are in charge of implementing national policies in their daily encounters with EU citizens. Through an in-depth qualitative analysis of formal policies and daily practices in the field of healthcare for EU citizens in Piedmont, in the North of Italy, this contribution analyses how EU citizens’ right to free movement and equal access to social protection is officially framed and concretely enacted within the boundaries of the Italian National Healthcare System and the role of health workers as de facto citizenship-makers. It suggests that, along with managerial orientations, different evaluations of the Italian economic and financial situation, and of EU citizens’ root motivations behind their decisions to move across Europe play a crucial role in shaping health workers’ assessments of EU citizens’ deservingness of healthcare.     

On weighted Renyi’s entropy for double-truncated distribution

In a recent paper, Nourbakhsh and Yari (2017 Nourbakhsh, M., and G. Yari. 2017. Weighted Renyi’s entropy for lifetime distributions. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 46 (14):7085–98.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduce the weighted version of Renyi’s entropy for left/right truncated random variables and studied their properties in context of reliability analysis. In the present communication we extend the notion of weighted Renyi’s entropy for two-sided truncated random variable. In reliability theory and survival analysis, this measure may help to study the quantitative-qualitative information spectrum of a system/component when it fails between two time points. Various aspects of weighted Renyi’s interval entropy have been discussed and some mistakes in the preceding literature have also been corrected. These results generalize and enhance the related existing results that are developed based on weighted Renyi’s entropy for one-sided truncated random variable. Finally, a simulation study is added to provide the estimates of the proposed measure and to demonstrate the performance of the estimates.     

Are persons with disabilities included in the Colombian peace process?

This article follows on from our previous one about the armed conflict in Colombia and its relationship with disability. We seek here to explore the ways in which people with disabilities are starting to be involved in the peace process with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP), and the avenues there are for representative organizations of disabled people to have a louder voice in Colombia. Currently, while legal and human rights approaches are important, people with disabilities in Colombia do not generally have the resources to fight for their own rights. However, there could be opportunities in the negotiations currently with the National Liberation Army (ELN) to include a specific focus on the rights of people with disabilities.     

An analysis of media reporting on the closure of freestanding midwifery units in England

ProblemDespite clinical guidelines and policy promoting choice of place of birth, 14 Freestanding Midwifery Units were closed between 2008 and 2015, closures reported in the media as justified by low use and financial constraints.BackgroundThe Birthplace in England Programme found that freestanding midwifery units provided the most cost-effective birthplace for women at low risk of complications. Women planning birth in a freestanding unit were less likely to experience interventions and serious morbidity than those planning obstetric unit birth, with no difference in outcomes for babies.MethodsThis paper uses an interpretative technique developed for policy analysis to explore the representation of these closures in 191 news articles, to explore the public climate in which they occurred.Findings and discussionThe articles focussed on underuse by women and financial constraints on services. Despite the inclusion of service user voices, the power of framing was held by service managers and commissioners. The analysis exposed how neoliberalist and austerity policies have privileged representation of individual consumer choice and market-driven provision as drivers of changes in health services. This normative framing presents the reasons given for closure as hard to refute and cultural norms persist that birth is safest in an obstetric setting, despite evidence to the contrary.ConclusionThe rise of neoliberalism and austerity in contemporary Britain has influenced the reform of maternity services, in particular the closure of midwifery units. Justifications given for closure silence other narratives, predominantly from service users, that attempt to present women’s choice in terms of rights and a social model of care.     

唐代皇帝诞节的贺寿礼制

从唐玄宗朝皇帝生日定为全国性节日开始,经过数百年的发展,至宋代皇帝圣节礼制最终成熟定型。唐代诞节礼制作为圣节贺寿的形成阶段,有一个发展演变过程。就贺寿对象而言,从玄宗千秋节的突出皇权中心,到逐渐接纳民间的生日祝贺父母习俗,并最终形成了圣节为皇帝、皇太后同时贺寿的圣节礼制。就皇帝对百官群臣的诞节赏赐而言,从玄宗朝的重物质、尚豪奢向中晚唐五代的重精神、尚荣誉转变,同时又接纳了民俗节日进衣的传统,至宋代则以赏赐衣物为主。就百官臣子的进献内容而言,从千秋节设计的甘露、醇酎、金镜、绶带等贺寿礼物,很快演变成豪华进献,并变相成为赋税之一种——诞节银。圣节礼制在宋元明清政治与社会生活中有着重要影响。其节日之设计与演变,对当代节日文化建设有着重要的借鉴和教训价值。