Establish a Glorious Century of Maintaining Life＇ s Dignity

现今的世界上,有许多人由于内战、贫困与饥饿、环境破坏等威胁,迫使他们的生命及尊严处于危险状态,也有大批人仍然饱受着人权侵害、种族歧视的痛苦。为和平、人权、人道的奋斗,绝不是低层爬到高山的顶峰就可以达到终点那样。重要的是要创建一股一代接一代、谁也阻挡不了的滔滔洪流,并日积月累地把它发展和扩大。这就是我们为了建设一个和平未来的不断挑战。     

Asymptotic hypothesis test to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients of multiple binary diagnostic tests in the presence of ignorable missing data

The weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test is a measure of the beyond-chance agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard, and is a measure that allows us to assess and compare the performance of binary diagnostic tests. In the presence of partial disease verification, the comparison of the weighted kappa coefficients of two or more binary diagnostic tests cannot be carried out ignoring the individuals with an unknown disease status, since the estimators obtained would be affected by verification bias. In this article, we propose a global hypothesis test based on the chi-square distribution to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients when in the presence of partial disease verification the missing data mechanism is ignorable. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the type I error and the power of the global hypothesis test. The results have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary disease.     

An evaluation of donor agencies’ policies on participatory development: The case of Ghana

This article critically evaluates guidelines concerning participatory development by the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). It focuses on the different conceptual frameworks adopted in order to examine the different ways of incorporating participation in their development agenda. A literature‐based method was adopted and the analysis included evaluation of five documented experiences, including the Ghana Secondary Education Improvement Project and Ghana Water Sanitation and Hygiene Project from both the World Bank and USAID. Baum project cycle stages have been taken as activities for project participation. The findings show the need for better planning, ensuring sustainability and involving beneficiaries.     

幼儿园游戏与教学融合的审思——基于幼儿游戏本质的视角

幼儿园游戏与教学在学前教育研究中一直隶属于两个领域，尽管有学者提出了一些融合设想，但仍难脱二元论范畴。本研究立足于幼儿游戏本质追寻，并把游戏本质作为幼儿园教学的基本内核，游戏内部的自我控制感和教学外部目的性的平衡与结合，正是幼儿园教学的核心特质。这种思路既理清了幼儿园教学特殊性，又有利于打破目前学界对于二者关系的形形色色的二元论认识，有利于促进二者从对立走向统一。     

Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

充分发挥主体性：深入践行科学发展观的着力点

主体性是人的本质属性，其根本内涵表现为自主性、能动性和创造性。人的主体性是践行科学发展观的内源动力。主体性的充分发挥有助于把握和领会科学发展观的内涵，化解践行科学发展观过程中的矛盾、困境及掌控科学发展观赋予的科学发展方向。高扬人的主体精神，立足人的主体地位和充分发挥人的主体作用，是深入践行科学发展观人本核心、发展要务的关键所在，故此，充分发挥主体性理应成为践行科学发展观的着力点。     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

人的思想道德与经济发展的关联

人的思想道德是人口素质的重要内容，人的思想道德在经济增长和经济发展中具有重要作用。但目前学术界还缺乏对人的思想道德素质与经济增长、经济发展和脱贫致富相关性的理论分析与实证检验。新时期反贫困实践应重视思想反贫困和思想扶贫。