Employee turnover forecasting for human resource management based on time series analysis

In some organizations, the hiring lead time is often long due to responding to human resource requirements associated with technical and security constrains. Thus, the human resource departments in these organizations are pretty interested in forecasting employee turnover since a good prediction of employee turnover could help the organizations to minimize the costs and impacts from the turnover on the operational capabilities and the budget. This study aims to enhance the ability to forecast employee turnover with or without considering the impact of economic indicators. Various time series modelling techniques were used to identify optimal models for effective employee turnover prediction. More than 11-years of monthly turnover data were used to build and validate the proposed models. Compared with other models, a dynamic regression model with additive trend, seasonality, interventions, and a very important economic indicator effectively predicted the turnover with training R²?=?0.77 and holdout R²?=?0.59. The forecasting performance of optimal models confirms that time series modelling approach has the ability to predict employee turnover for the specific scenario observed in our analysis.     

An Examination of Two Screen/Report Design Variables in an Information Recall Context*

Screen/report design for output organization is still very much a common sense-driven activity. This paper identifies a preliminary set of factors beyond display format for examination as screen/report design variables. A laboratory experiment was conducted to assess the influence of one of these factors, spatial layout of information, along with display format in an information recall context. Individual imagery orientation (verbalizer/visualizer) was used as a moderating variable in the experimental design. The findings indicate that spatial layout of information significantly influenced performance when the recall task involved pattern detection. In fact, a central location of data in a document was the most conducive to pattern recall performance. Further, terminal items facilitated pattern recall better than early input items. With respect to display format, the results support previous findings that a tabular display enhances performance for point-value recall tasks while graphs exhibit an edge over tables for pattern types of recall tasks. Overall, the verbalizers demonstrated a complete supremacy in performance. Interaction between individual imagery orientation and display format indicates that, while the verbalizers and the mixed type were immune to display format variations, the graphical stimulus enhanced the pattern recall performance of the visualizers.     

Household energy consumption: Community context and the fuelwood transition

We examine the influence of community context on change over time in households’ use of non-wood fuels. Our theoretical framework builds on sociological concepts in order to study energy consumption at the micro-level. The framework emphasizes the importance of nonfamily organizations and services in the local community as determinants of the transition from use of fuelwood to use of alternative fuels. We use multilevel longitudinal data on household fuel choice and community context from rural Nepal to provide empirical tests of our theoretical model. Results reveal that increased exposure to nonfamily organizations in the local community increases the use of alternative fuels. The findings illustrate key features of human impacts on the local environment and motivate greater incorporation of social organization into research on environmental change.     

Get a job and keep it! High school employment and adult wealth accumulation

Wealth inequality receives substantial scholarly attention, but mounting evidence suggests that childhood and adolescent traits and experiences contribute to financial disparities in the United States. This study examines the relationship between adolescent labor force participation and adult wealth accumulation. I argue that employed high school students gain practical life skills, abilities, and knowledge from work experience and business exposure that shape investment decisions and affect overall net worth. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 cohort, to empirically explore this idea. This study extends the wealth literature by identifying adolescent employment as an important mechanism that improves adult net worth and financial well-being.     

夏目漱石汉诗与“非人情”

夏目漱石的汉诗是在世俗功利之外独辟的胜景,作者主张的"非人情"的文学理念在其汉诗中得到尽情演绎,这是鼓励人放弃俗念、荡涤烦恼,恢复心灵自由的艺术,透露着宁静、空寂、超然物外的禅境,同时又不失其为理想而抗争的"执著"本色。     

Exploring the social benefits of agri-environment schemes in England

Recent decades have seen sustainable development emerging as a core concern of European Union (EU) policy. In order to consider how policies can contribute more positively to the goals of sustainable development, major EU policies must undergo an assessment of their potential economic, environmental and social impacts. Within the agri-environment sector, this is reflected in the increasing requirement for EU Members States to monitor and evaluate the socio-economic as well as the environmental and agricultural impacts of their agri-environment programmes. Whilst some research has looked at the more easily quantifiable economic impacts of agri-environment schemes (AES), there is a paucity of research exploring the social dimensions. In this paper, four areas where social impacts of AES can be assessed are suggested: namely impact on on-farm employment; income security; human capital through skills and training development; and social capital development through extension of knowledge networks and flows. These areas are explored in detail using the results of a survey of Environmental Stewardship schemes in England. The results show that the level of social benefit is differentiated by scheme and farm type. The more demanding Higher Level Stewardship schemes help to develop human capital and increase networks, and dairy farmers in particularly have extended their advisory networks in order to participate in AES. The paper concludes that through the exploration of the social impact of AES it may be possible to identify ways to more closely link social and environmental stewardship objectives and thereby contribute to sustainable agriculture.     

THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY CRITERION IN EXPERIMENTAL JUDGMENT RESEARCH IN ACCOUNTING*

Previous experimental judgment research in accounting has been interpreted as supportive of the linear model as an appropriate representation of decision-making behavior in nearly all of the tasks investigated. Moreover, nonlinear models have come to be viewed as adding relatively little predictive power over that provided by the linear model, even in tasks considered to be inherently nonlinear. These conclusions were based largely upon evaluating the predictive ability of the linear model in terms of statistics measuring the proportion of variance accounted for by the model. In the present paper it is argued that, since these statistics are not independent of the experimental design, it is not clear whether the high correlations are indicative of the model's success in representing decision-making processes or instead are more the result of various features of the experimental design. It is suggested that correlational tests be supplemented with qualitative tests of the predictive ability of a model. Implications for accounting are discussed.     

企业培训制度的建立与实施研究

21世纪的企业间竞争是员工素质和企业文化间的竞争的这种观念深为企业界所共识。在围绕企业中员工的吸收、选择、合理使用等方面展开的竞争愈演愈烈的情况下,企业间竞争的另一个重点区域——企业培训工作也开始被众多成功的或发展较快的企业所认识、重视。企业培训工作的常态化、制度化和规范化为促进企业本身的竞争力与发展奠定了基础,成为目前人力资源管理问题中的重中之重。     

延安《解放日报》广告经营理念与广告特色分析

延安《解放日报》登有大量广告,这些广告反映和记录了当时特殊条件下边区政府和人民的政治、经济与文化生活,体现了注重社会效益、服务政治大局的经营理念,具有鲜明的政治色彩和解放区特色。     

ON THE USE OF VERBAL PROTOCOLS IN CONJOINT ANALYSIS STUDIES

A recent study by Olshavsky and Acito helped gain insight into (a) the decision process used by respondents when asked to do a conjoint task, (b) the predictive validity of conjoint models compared to models derived from verbal protocols, and (c) the reasons for prediction errors. In this article, the author argues that the Olshavsky and Acito results do not lead one to believe that the compensatory conjoint models can be potentially more misleading than models that try to represent more accurately the underlying evaluation process with noncompensatory and compensatory rules. Hence, it does not seem necessary to try to identify noncompensatory rules in a conjoint study.