个人教育收益率的估计与比较: 一个半参数方法

 本文运用一种变系数部分线性模型扩展了传统的明瑟人力资本收入函数,并提出了对明瑟函数中“平行性”假设的一种检验方法,以分析个人教育收益率如何受到工龄等因素的影响。通过对1991、2000以及2004等年度国家统计局城镇居民收入调查数据的分析,揭示出近二十年来我国城镇居民中不同工龄的人们的教育收益率存在明显区别,其中人教育收益率最高的始终是在1980年代中后期参加工作的群体。对导致我国教育收益率这种特殊现象的原因作了分析。     

Time-varying clustering of multivariate longitudinal observations

Abstract

We propose a statistical method for clustering multivariate longitudinal data into homogeneous groups. This method relies on a time-varying extension of the classical K-means algorithm, where a multivariate vector autoregressive model is additionally assumed for modeling the evolution of clusters' centroids over time. Model inference is based on a least-squares method and on a coordinate descent algorithm. To illustrate our work, we consider a longitudinal dataset on human development. Three variables are modeled, namely life expectancy, education and gross domestic product.     

Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields with applications in human brain mapping

Summary.  Functional magnetic resonance imaging has become a standard technology in human brain mapping. Analyses of the massive spatiotemporal functional magnetic resonance imaging data sets often focus on parametric or non-parametric modelling of the temporal component, whereas spatial smoothing is based on Gaussian kernels or random fields. A weakness of Gaussian spatial smoothing is underestimation of activation peaks or blurring of high curvature transitions between activated and non-activated regions of the brain. To improve spatial adaptivity, we introduce a class of inhomogeneous Markov random fields with stochastic interaction weights in a space-varying coefficient model. For given weights, the random field is conditionally Gaussian, but marginally it is non-Gaussian. Fully Bayesian inference, including estimation of weights and variance parameters, can be carried out through efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Although motivated by the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging data, the methodological development is general and can also be used for spatial smoothing and regression analysis of areal data on irregular lattices. An application to stylized artificial data and to real functional magnetic resonance imaging data from a visual stimulation experiment demonstrates the performance of our approach in comparison with Gaussian and robustified non-Gaussian Markov random-field models.     

Bayesian analysis of human movement curves

Summary.  We consider the Bayesian analysis of human movement data, where the subjects perform various reaching tasks. A set of markers is placed on each subject and a system of cameras records the three-dimensional Cartesian co-ordinates of the markers during the reaching movement. It is of interest to describe the mean and variability of the curves that are traced by the markers during one reaching movement, and to identify any differences due to covariates. We propose a methodology based on a hierarchical Bayesian model for the curves. An important part of the method is to obtain identifiable features of the movement so that different curves can be compared after temporal warping. We consider four landmarks and a set of equally spaced pseudolandmarks are located in between. We demonstrate that the algorithm works well in locating the landmarks, and shape analysis techniques are used to describe the posterior distribution of the mean curve. A feature of this type of data is that some parts of the movement data may be missing—the Bayesian methodology is easily adapted to cope with this situation.     

以改善人际关系促进大学生心理健康发展

和谐人际关系是大学生心理健康的重要评判标准,心理健康问题突出表现在人际关系方面,亲密人际关系的丧失极易导致身心疾病甚至死亡。应针对大学生人际交往特点培养其交往品质、养成交际技能,引导大学生主动、积极交往,以促进大学生心理健康水平的提高。     

论儒家道德的自由因素

在道德领域,没有绝对自由的道德,也不存在无条件的自由。儒家道德作为一种规范,在某种意义上是对自由的否定,但从道德的目的来讲,儒家道德又是追求自由的。因此,仅仅看到儒家道德文化对人性的束缚是片面的,还应对其进行多方面的思考,进一步认清儒家道德的自由本质,使自由在儒家道德中得以真正的诠释。     

高校双语教学管理中学生的性质与类型

在教学管理的范畴中,学生属于管理对象之一.本文从双语教学的视角出发,对高校双语教学管理中的学生进行了研究,剖析和探讨了学生的性质与类型,为促进双语教学提供有益的思路.     

大众文化语境中的异化

早在古希腊时期,异化现象就已经被人们所关注;到了文艺复兴时期,对异化问题的思考已经较为普遍和自觉.对异化问题的学术见解有两类:一是把异化与私有制度联系起来;二是将异化理解为人类生存的普遍形式.异化的根源在于匮乏,生产力的发展、科学技术的进步并不能消除匮乏;异化是人类文明发展到一定程度的必然结果,并将随着大众文化的发展而进一步加剧.     

高校党的先进性教育的基本依据与现实要求

国际环境、国内形势、高校现状等因素的变化,使现阶段高校深入开展保持党的先进性教育活动显得极为迫切。我们只有纠正认识误区、坚持正确导向、加强党性修养、健全工作机制,才能不断增强、切实提高先进性教育活动的针对性和实效性。     

我国“反黑”刑事立法反思

为了配合目前对黑社会性质组织或黑社会组织犯罪的打击力度,完善相关的“反黑”刑事立法制度是关键,本文分析了“反黑”立法目前存在的问题,并提出完善相关刑事立法的建议,以期达到惩治之目的。