The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.     

习近平关于人民健康重要论述的思想内涵与实践价值研究

人民健康是人民福祉之本、强国建设之基。习近平关于人民健康重要论述基于“健康中国”战略和全面建成小康社会的 时代背景下，针对突发公共卫生事件应急管理能力滞后以及传染病等问题，系统阐述了习近平把人民群众生命安全和身体健 康放在第一位；以人民为中心，以健康为根本的思想；大卫生、大健康新理念；人民健康是最大的生产力；人民健康是全面的健 康以及习近平关于新冠肺炎防控的思想内涵。通过研究习近平关于人民健康重要论述的实践价值，有利于推进国家治理体系 和治理能力现代化，更好地应对国内出现的重大疫情，实现“健康中国2030”战略，维护国家安宁与国际稳定，更好地体现中国 防疫经验的世界意义。     

卓越教师培养的有效探索——我国台湾地区“卓越师资培育奖学金计划”述评及启示

当前国际教师教育改革转为以卓越为取向的发展趋势。我国台湾地区的"少子化"问题引发了该区域师资供需失调的矛盾，同时多元化的师资培育模式又导致教师素质不断下降。在此背景下，2006年我国台湾地区推行"卓越师资培育奖学金计划"。该计划旨在提升师资培育过程质量、加强绩效管理、建立完善的奖励与竞争机制，通过实现优胜劣汰来保障实施该计划的各院校取得成效。经过试行与正式实施，该计划的成效整体良好。"卓越师资培育奖学金计划"对新时代卓越教师培养具有一定的借鉴意义，如以奖励与竞争的方式优化卓越师资结构、建立卓越教师培养计划退场机制、改革高校教师教育培养模式，等等。     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

我国企业品牌定位的五层次研究

近年来中国企业的品牌建设取得了可喜的成绩,出现了许多优秀品牌,这些品牌凭借独特、合适的定位取得了成功。但企业在品牌定位方面存在许多误区,如把品牌定位看作产品定位、品牌定位模糊,缺乏差异性和明确的核心价值、品牌盲目延伸导致定位混淆等问题。因此,产品品牌定位必须树立正确的定位理念,应用正确的品牌定位方法。正确的品牌定位方法可分为产品特征定位、物质利益定位、情感利益定位、个性定位以及价值观定位共五个层次。     

能源安全体系建构的理论与实践

在我国能源安全面临的一系列重大问题中，能源领域的政策规划薄弱，法律保障制度建设与管理体制改革滞后，能源供应与能源安全保障体系缺乏相关政策、法律和制度的保障。只有真正做到政策、法律和管理体制“三位一体”，才能确保国家能源安全。本文从能源安全体系建构的理论和实践出发，借鉴西方能源安全战略实践，从政策、法律和管理体制等角度，对我国能源安全体系的内在机制建构进行分析，旨在为我国与中东能源合作提供借鉴与参考。     

浅论近代青海女性社会地位变迁及其原因

近代是青海女性社会地位发生变迁的时期,本文从女性形体观的转变、女性教育等方面,论述了近代青海女性社会地位的变迁及其原因。     

唐宋时期回族先民对西北商业经济的开发与贡献

重视商业经济,是伊斯兰教的特点之一。唐宋时期,伴随着伊斯兰教的传入,回族先民对西北商业经济进行了开发。他们一方面继承了阿拉伯商业的传统,另一方面在新的环境下,又有所创新、有所发展。在长期不断的开发中,为西北区域经济的繁荣与发展,做出了重要的贡献。