十月革命与中国共产党的初心构建

十月革命是影响世界历史进程的重大事件，中国共产党从来都把自己的事业看作是十月革命的继续。澄清唯心史观和历史虚无主义对十月革命的错误解读，对于补好理想信念的精神之钙具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。学习和借鉴十月革命的宝贵经验、坚持社会主义的前进方向、坚守共产主义的远大理想，共同构成了中国共产党初心的核心意蕴。     

To be or not to be valid in testing the significance of the slope in simple quantitative linear models with autocorrelated errors

In this article, the validity of procedures for testing the significance of the slope in quantitative linear models with one explanatory variable and first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] errors is analyzed in a Monte Carlo study conducted in the time domain. Two cases are considered for the regressor: fixed and trended versus random and AR(1). In addition to the classical t -test using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator of the slope and its standard error, we consider seven t -tests with n-2\,\hbox{df} built on the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator or an estimated GLS estimator, three variants of the classical t -test with different variances of the OLS estimator, two asymptotic tests built on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, the F -test for fixed effects based on the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimator in the mixed-model approach, two t -tests with n - 2 df based on first differences (FD) and first-difference ratios (FDR), and four modified t -tests using various corrections of the number of degrees of freedom. The FDR t -test, the REML F -test and the modified t -test using Dutilleul's effective sample size are the most valid among the testing procedures that do not assume the complete knowledge of the covariance matrix of the errors. However, modified t -tests are not applicable and the FDR t -test suffers from a lack of power when the regressor is fixed and trended ( i.e. , FDR is the same as FD in this case when observations are equally spaced), whereas the REML algorithm fails to converge at small sample sizes. The classical t -test is valid when the regressor is fixed and trended and autocorrelation among errors is predominantly negative, and when the regressor is random and AR(1), like the errors, and autocorrelation is moderately negative or positive. We discuss the results graphically, in terms of the circularity condition defined in repeated measures ANOVA and of the effective sample size used in correlation analysis with autocorrelated sample data. An example with environmental data is presented.     

西南联大时期的许宝騄与戴世光

许宝騄、戴世光是我国近现代数理统计和社会经济统计领域的两面旗帜。他们二位在上世纪30年代分别留学英国和美国，获得统计学博士和硕士学位。抗日战争爆发后，分别在1940年、1938年回到昆明，任教西南联大。在极其困难的条件下，他们不仅在算学系、经济学系系统讲授数理统计和社会经济统计等课程，而且作出了有重大国际影响的研究成果。艰苦而乐观的生活趣事既反映了当时特殊的时代背景，更彰显出他们高尚的人格品德。     

Non uniform exponential bounds on normal approximation by Stein’s method and monotone size bias couplings

It is known that the normal approximation is applicable for sums of non negative random variables, W, with the commonly employed couplings. In this work, we use the Stein’s method to obtain a general theorem of non uniform exponential bound on normal approximation base on monotone size bias couplings of W. Applications of the main result to give the bound on normal approximation for binomial random variable, the number of bulbs on at the terminal time in the lightbulb process, and the number of m runs are also provided.     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

新世纪以来大学题材长篇小说的基本类型

在当代文学领域，大学题材长篇小说创作长期处于边缘位置，直至进入新世纪，该类作品才大量出现。根据文本内容与现实生活的距离以及不同的艺术手法，可以将这些文本大致划分为三种类型：回忆型、体验型和想象型，其中后两者在内容方面有一定交互性，但在创作技法上却有显著不同，想象型文本虽也有现实底色，但艺术手法更为夸张。这三种类型的出现，既有文学题材自身的原因，也与作家们的身份和经历、文学自身艺术手法的多样以及日益宽松的创作环境有关。     

试论民族高校突发事件的应对

民族高校学生突发事件一直以来都是民族高校管理中一个不容忽视的问题，由于民族高校突发事件的特殊性，使民族高校在突发事件应对方面存在诸多困境。从危机管理的角度进行思考和应对，对预防民族高校突发事件的发生有一定的指导意义。     

Inverse gaussian accelerated test models based on cumulative damage

The failure of a system under environmental stress often can be described by an accelerated test model which incorporates the environmental variable L. Here, the failure of such a system at environmental level L is modeled as the first passage of accumulated damage to a critical threshold value. Assuming a discrete additive damage model leads to a Birnbaum–Saunders-type distribution for the failure time which can be closely approximated by an inverse Gaussian-type model. However, if a continuous damage model based on a Gaussian process is assumed, a more general family of inverse Gaussian accelerated test models is obtained. Three sets of failure data are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of this general family.     

华岗“政治大课”简论

为了贯彻《共同纲领》的文教政策，使山东大学顺利实现向新民主主义大学的转变，在建国初期山东大学思想政治教育中，校长华岗为全校师生所授政治大课，采取理论联系实际和以理服人的方针，系统地给山大师生讲授了党的政策和马克思主义基本原理，提高了山大师生的觉悟，为20世纪50年代山大的辉煌奠定了基础。