Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review

Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as ‘mortality clustering’. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent.     

The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress).     

Collecting text messages from college students: Evaluating a novel methodology

Social interaction, particularly in older adolescents, increasingly involves computer‐mediated communication. Although studies of public computer‐mediated communication are increasingly common, studies of private text messaging remain rare. As approaches for obtaining such data evolve with technological advances, developmental scientists need designs in which to use such approaches that reduce sampling biases in both participants and text messages. In this study (n = 854; 46% male; 22% African American, 60% European American), we examined selection biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors associated with actual participation), procedural biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors related to failed data capture due to technological or procedural issues), and selection biases in the sample of text messages (i.e., based on self‐reported reasons for texting). Findings from our study suggest that studying human interaction directly through analysis of text message data is not only feasible, but also may be successfully undertaken with minimal biases regarding sample selection and text message selection among those who are engaged in research and engaged in text messaging outside of the study context. However, biases may occur depending on the type of platform (iPhone vs. Android) used by participants for texting.     

Using complexity theory in kinship practice

This reflective discussion draws on data from a collaborative enquiry into kinship or family and friends practice. It introduces perspectives from complexity and chaos theory as a way of re‐examining the challenges of kinship practice. The discussion highlights the enduring challenges for practitioners, not least, managing anxiety and uncertainty, sustaining continuity and containment, becoming experienced and taking account of the complex developmental needs of the children and their families. The discussion particularly raises questions about appropriate settings for practitioners to undertake such a demanding area of child and family social work.     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.     

White international transracial adoptive mothers' reflections on race

Through the use of qualitative data analysis of in‐depth interviews with eight white international transracial adoptive mothers, four properties emerged that describe these mothers' racial views. These properties varied in the degree that they integrated perspectives different from the white dominant culture. The mothers did not experience significant changes in their perspective on race subsequent to adoption. This paper includes a discussion of white racial identity and implications for social work practice with transracially adoptive parents.     

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates—successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths—are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.     

体育课教法与学法新探

任何教学行为都是通过教法和学法来完成的,在体育课中表现形式更为具体。如何在有限的时间里,探索出一条 科学、高效的教学方法,教师不仅要在教法上下功夫,还要以学生为主体,在学法上做文章。