Some aspects of probability forecasting

The problems of assessing, comparing and combining probability forecasts for a binary events sequence are considered. A Gaussian threshold model (analytically of closed form) is introduced which allows generation of different probability forecast sequences valid for the same events. Chi - squared type test statistics, and also a marginal-conditional method are proposed for the assessment problem, and an asymptotic normality result is given. A graphical method is developed for the comparison problem, based upon decomposing arbitrary proper scoring rules into certain elementary scoring functions. The special role of the logarithmic scoring rule is examined in the context of Neyman - Pearson theory.     

Robust tests for the common principal components model

When dealing with several populations, the common principal components (CPC) model assumes equal principal axes but different variances along them. In this paper, a robust log-likelihood ratio statistic allowing to test the null hypothesis of a CPC model versus no restrictions on the scatter matrices is introduced. The proposal plugs into the classical log-likelihood ratio statistic robust scatter estimators. Using the same idea, a robust log-likelihood ratio and a robust Wald-type statistic for testing proportionality against a CPC model are considered. Their asymptotic distributions under the null hypothesis and their partial influence functions are derived. A small simulation study allows to compare the behavior of the classical and robust tests, under normal and contaminated data.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.     

Binary probability maps using a hidden conditional autoregressive Gaussian process with an application to Finnish common toad data

The Finnish common toad data of Heikkinen and Hogmander are reanalysed using an alternative fully Bayesian model that does not require a pseudolikelihood approximation and an alternative prior distribution for the true presence or absence status of toads in each 10 km×10 km square. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior probability estimates of the square-specific presences of the common toad and these are presented as a map. The results are different from those of Heikkinen and Hogmander and we offer an explanation in terms of the prior used for square-specific presence of the toads. We suggest that our approach is more faithful to the data and avoids unnecessary confounding of effects. We demonstrate how to extend our model efficiently with square-specific covariates and illustrate this by introducing deterministic spatial changes.     

模糊语义研究方法论纲

研究模糊语义必须以查德的“模糊集”理论作指导．运用现代语言学和现代语义学以及相关学科的研究成果来进行研究。这样也就使得研究方法具有多角度、多层次的特点,从而形成一个方法论系统：从整体方法上看,可实行宏观研究与微观分析相结合、定性研究与定量描述相结合、一般规律研究与特殊规律研究相结合的方法;从具体方法上看,应该注重模糊语义学的“综合性的边缘学科”属性,强调不同学科之间的渗透,融合各相关学科的理论和知识,来对模糊语义展开全面而深入的研究。     

管理运筹学课程教学改革“ 3+ 2”模式研究

文章从管理运筹学教学特征出发,针对学生运筹思维能力、实际应用能力和实际操作能力的培养和提高,提出了"3+2"教学模式.研究了实用案例教学法、趣味教学法、计算机"伴侣"教学法这3种教学方法以及布置作业与认真批改的2种教学控制手段.并将为经济管理类管理运筹学教学改革提供思路.     

高校货币资金控制的具体方法和内容

通过对高校货币资金管理实践的研究,提出了货币资金控制的具体内容和方法,从程序上保证货币资金的安全.高校可以根据货币资金安全理论、对策和具体内容,修正或完善本校货币资金管理制度,实现货币资金安全的目的.     

论行政规范合法性审查的法学方法

行政规范合法性审查是指有权国家机关审查行政规范是否合法的活动,可分为合规则的审查、合原则的审查与合体系的审查三个阶段。基于各审查阶段的内容,可以选用相应的法学方法。合规则的审查需要采用文义解释等法解释学方法。合原则的审查,除了采取前述方法之外,还需要采用法原则识别法、法原则选择法以及法原则权衡法。合体系的审查则需综合运用前述方法重新审视、检查行政规范是否符合法体系的整体意义、脉络和精神。     

事业单位养老保险制度改革的路径与对策

事业单位养老保险改革严重滞后于企业养老保险改革,已成为我国养老保险制度改革和资源整合的瓶颈。坚持基本养老保险统一原则,实现与企业养老保险制度并轨,是事业单位养老保险改革的基本路径。为此,需要建立统帐结合的基本制度、妥善解决改革成本、建立职员年金以及完善相关养老保险法律制度。     

论业务过失犯罪的处罚

我国刑法中的“业务”与“职务”是两个不同的概念。因此,业务过失犯罪不同于职务过失犯罪,在研究中应予以区分。我国《刑法》分则中规定的业务过失犯罪主要有18种。当前对这些业务过失犯罪的处罚存在规范层面、理念层面与实践层面的问题,表现为：一是法定刑配置问题,二是刑罚目的偏重于惩罚而忽视预防,三是刑罚效果不容乐观。这些问题的存在,一方面不利于业务过失犯罪的处罚,另一方面无助于预防和减少该类犯罪的发生。因此,有必要通过贯彻罪刑均衡原则、协调刑罚的目的、关注刑罚的伦理性与注重非刑罚处罚措施等方法及时解决业务过失犯罪的处罚中存在的问题,进而预防和减少该类犯罪的发生。