略论口述资料的解读

对口述史料的解读关系到对历史事实的把握、判断和理解,这是进行口述史研究的一个重要内容。要准确地分析口述史料,必须以完整的口述访谈过程为基础,正确认识个体记忆的形成规律,分析影响记忆的各种因素,在此基础上判断口述资料真实性。     

近代丛书编纂的巨擘——张元济——以古籍丛书编纂为例

张元济承天降之大任,投身商务印书馆60年,在总结前人汇刻经验的基础上,通过收书、藏书、整理出版古籍丛书,将丛书的广博气象和校印水平推向极致,成为近代丛书编纂的巨擘。他主持编纂的涵芬楼秘笈、四部丛刊、百衲本二十四史、续古逸丛书、丛书集成初编、四库全书珍本初集、孤本元杂剧等七部丛书如北斗七星,在中华文化的灿烂星空中熠熠发光。     

试析近年来朝鲜半岛核问题的演化以及中国的作为

近几年来,朝鲜半岛无核化进程出现严重逆转,六方会谈一直陷入沉寂.半岛核问题恶化的一个主要原因是朝鲜国内的权力过渡引发了各方政策关注点的再调整.朝鲜的核能力在过去几年里取得了一些重大进展,加深了国际社会的忧虑.为了推动六方会谈重启,中国做出了种种努力,但要成功实现早日复谈,仍需要美朝展示灵活性,发挥主动性,彼此合作并与其他各方共同努力,使半岛核问题重新驶回正确的轨道.     

社会心理测量中降低主观性偏差的方法探索——一项关于组织认同的测量思路与量表设计及其结果

对作为一种社会心理现象的组织认同的测量思路，从大的视野看，应该既从组织成员对组织与自己关系的内在体验和感受，也从其对这种关系表现出的外显性行为两个方面实施；从具体操作言，还应寻求组织认同中个体的主我认知与他我认知的统一，把二者的测量得分合二为一后，求对同一个问题的整合结果。测量量表的设计与编制应该同时考虑两个方面：一是在设计心理倾向测量的同时必须考虑测量内在心理和外显性行为表现两个层次；二是在测量这种主观意向倾向时应注意从主我与他我的两个方面。实际的测量结果有降低测量的主观性偏差和提高测量的精确度两个特点。     

Welfare generosity, pregnancies and abortions among unmarried AFDC recipients

Even before the 1996 overhaul of the U.S. welfare system, a number of states had ended the practice of paying extra benefits to families who have additional children while receiving welfare. Proponents believe that this reform can reduce births to recipients, however many worry that it may encourage women to obtain abortions. Using a sample of unmarried AFDC recipients from the NLSY, we estimate a bivariate probit model of pregnancy and, conditional on becoming pregnant, the probability of abortion. Our results lend some support for the proposition that reducing incremental AFDC benefits will decrease pregnancies without increasing abortions. Received: 16 April 1998/Accepted: 11 March 1999     

A goodness of fit test for multilevel survival data

No satisfactory goodness of fit test is available for multilevel survival data which occur when survival data are clustered or hierarchical in nature. Hence the aim of this research is to develop a new goodness of fit test for multilevel survival data and to examine the properties of the newly developed test. Simulation studies were carried out to evaluate the type ? error and the power. The results showed that the type I error holds for every combination tested and that the test is powerful against the alternative hypothesis of nonproportional hazards for all combinations tested.     

Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated poisson regression profiles

The objective of this paper is to study the Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated Poisson profiles where the response values within each profile are autocorrelated. Two charts, the SLRT and the Hotelling's T², are proposed along with an algorithm for parameter estimation. The detecting power of the proposed charts is compared using simulations in terms of the signal probability criterion. The performance of the SLRT method in estimating the change point in the regression parameters is also evaluated. Moreover, a real data example is presented to illustrate the application of the methods.     

Response‐adaptive designs for binary responses: How to offer patient benefit while being robust to time trends?

Response‐adaptive randomisation (RAR) can considerably improve the chances of a successful treatment outcome for patients in a clinical trial by skewing the allocation probability towards better performing treatments as data accumulates. There is considerable interest in using RAR designs in drug development for rare diseases, where traditional designs are not either feasible or ethically questionable. In this paper, we discuss and address a major criticism levelled at RAR: namely, type I error inflation due to an unknown time trend over the course of the trial. The most common cause of this phenomenon is changes in the characteristics of recruited patients—referred to as patient drift. This is a realistic concern for clinical trials in rare diseases due to their lengthly accrual rate. We compute the type I error inflation as a function of the time trend magnitude to determine in which contexts the problem is most exacerbated. We then assess the ability of different correction methods to preserve type I error in these contexts and their performance in terms of other operating characteristics, including patient benefit and power. We make recommendations as to which correction methods are most suitable in the rare disease context for several RAR rules, differentiating between the 2‐armed and the multi‐armed case. We further propose a RAR design for multi‐armed clinical trials, which is computationally efficient and robust to several time trends considered.     

Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exact sample size determination in a weibull test plan when there is time censoring

Engineers who conduct reliability tests need to choose the sample size when designing a test plan. The model parameters and quantiles are the typical quantities of interest. The large-sample procedure relies on the property that the distribution of the t -like quantities is close to the standard normal in large samples. In this paper, we use a new procedure based on both simulation and asymptotic theory to determine the sample size for a test plan. Unlike the complete data case, the t -like quantities are not pivotal quantities in general when data are time censored. However we show that the distribution of the t -like quantities only depend on the expected proportion failing and obtain the distributions by simulation for both complete and time censoring case when data follow Weibull distribution. We find that the large-sample procedure usually underestimates the sample size even when it is said to be 200 or more. The sample size given by the proposed procedure insures the requested nominal accuracy and confidence of the estimation when the test plan results in complete or time censored data. Some useful figures displaying the required sample size for the new procedure are also presented.