中国月度数据的季节调整：一个新方案

 本文针对中国特定的节假日效应和交易日效应对季节调整问题提出了新的方案,包括移动节假日效应（如春节、中秋节、清明节、端午节等）、黄金周效应、五天工作制效应等;论文利用新的调整方案对我国社会消费品零售总额的月度数据进行了季节调整,诊断结果表明,新方案能比较充分地提取各种季节特征;论文对我国季节调整问题提出了针对性建议。     

Agricultural policy modelling under imperfect competition

This study evaluates the role of imperfect competition in determining the agri-food policies impact assessment outcomes. In most impact studies, the supply chain between agricultural production and final consumption is modelled in a perfectly competitive framework. However, there is a growing attention of stakeholders for the presence of imperfectly competitive markets, with the retail sector often being under investigation. This issue is empirically analysed with an application to the dairy industry. First, the degree of market power is estimated using a multi-output demand and price transmission equation system. Then, this model is used for policy simulation with the perfect competition outcome taken as a benchmark to evaluate the impact of imperfect competition. Results show a significant degree of market power in the dairy industry with implications on the projected policy scenarios. Moreover, the imperfect competition model alters the price transmission mechanisms, generating more flexible price trends.     

The influence of retail outlet and FSMA information on consumer perceptions of and willingness to pay for organic grape tomatoes

The primary objective of this research was to determine the effect of retail outlet (supercenter, supermarket, farmers market, fresh format) on consumer perceptions of and willingness to pay (WTP) for organic grape tomatoes. Also examined was whether information on the proposed Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) regulations, with and without information on tomato safety, altered these aspects across retail outlets. Field experiments were conducted with 207 participants in two U.S. states in fall 2014 to address these questions. Consumers’ perceptions and WTP varied significantly by retail outlet, with farmers markets and fresh format stores receiving the most favorable evaluations and supercenters the least. With FSMA information, safety perceptions fell significantly for the favored outlets and mostly increased for supercenters. Participants’ felt no producers should be exempt from the FSMA and viewed farmers markets vendors as most likely to be exempt. Unexpectedly though, these changes seldom translated into changes in WTP. Further, in treatments with added tomato safety information, supercenters saw no safety rating benefit. Overall, it was clear the organic label was not viewed equally across different retail outlets.     

Wages, taxes and publicly provided day care

Public employment growth has been parallelled by increased female labour force participation, while real wages for typical female public sector occupations have not increased. In a theoretical model we, first, show that there is a tradeoff between day care provision and gross wages for occupations for which day care is a complement. It is possible to combine increased public labour demand with public day care provision leaving the wage unaffected. Second, non-parents will be in favour of increasing day care as long as day care productivity is higher than the inverse of the tax rate. This is because the effective labour supply and, therefore, the tax base increase. Third, parents want to push day care provision even further. They are prepared to accept a lower day care productivity than non-parents because day care provision relaxes the constraint on their desired labour supply. The Pareto efficient day care provision is between parents‘ and non-parents‘ preferred levels. Received: 12 December 1995 / Accepted: 17 September 1997     

Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany

Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth. Using a flexible duration dependence estimation technique for proportional hazards due to Prentice and Gloeckler (1978) and applied to grouped durations by Meyer (1987, 1990), we estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs.The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support by the National German Science Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) (Grant No. Wa 547/2-1). The authors would like to thank Richard Burkhauser, Barbara Butrica, John F. Ermisch, Joachim Frick, Siv Gustafsson, Philip Merrigan, Johannes Schwarze, Eileen Trzcinski, Jan-Dirk Vlasblom, Gert Wagner, Sheng Zhu and two anonymous referees for their help and suggestions. Remaining errors are of course, our own. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Women's transitions in the labour market: a competing risks analysis on German panel data

This paper analyses the transitions between the three states of non-employment, part-time and full-time work of a sample of married women living in West Germany. The questions addressed concern the dynamics of women's labour market transitions and the association of the probability of transition with household and individual characteristics. A non-parametric duration analysis shows that women have a similar attachment to full-time and part-time work in terms of survival, and that survival in non-employment is shorter than in the other two states. Estimates of a parametric discrete-time competing risks duration model show that wives of retired husbands go into full-time work, children under 3 years have a disincentive effect on part-time work and that part-time work is a state that German women prefer to stay in and not a first step to full-time employment, whereas foreign women living in West Germany prefer full-time jobs.I thank Rebecca Blank, John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, John Micklewright, Pravin Trivedi, Jane Waldfogel and two anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments, and Hans-Peter Blossfeld for providing access to these data through his research project at the European University Institute of Florence. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch     

云南民族地区的贫困代际传递

“十三五”时期是全面建成小康社会的决胜阶段,必须彻底解决全国目前尚未脱贫的7000多万农村贫困人口的贫困问题。其中,农村贫困问题又集中表现在民族地区,云南是集边疆、民族、山区、贫困为一体的欠发达省份,是脱贫攻坚难啃的硬骨头。从贫困代际传递的视角,分析了家庭内部包括家庭结构、生育观念、监护状况、受教育程度以及社区范围内的宗教信仰、丧葬习俗方面的致贫因素并呼吁少数民族地区干部群众抓住当前发展的有利时机,凝聚各方力量,发挥内生动力,充分实现自身发展,同时认真学习党的各项民族政策,树立对待宗教的正确态度,进而加速脱贫,共享小康。     

The impact of industry IPOs on acquisitions of new ventures: An information spillovers perspective

The announcements of initial public offerings (IPOs) in an industry can convey to potential acquirers information about the growth prospects of the rivals of ventures undertaking IPOs, thereby increasing their likelihood of being acquired. We investigate several information diffusion mechanisms to examine how information conveyed by industry IPOs shape such acquisitions. We also develop a contingency perspective on how the value of such information spillovers will vary across acquirers. Our empirical evidence indicates that information in the IPO market channeled via media coverage, analyst coverage, and IPO underpricing raises an acquirer's likelihood of acquiring a private venture. Thus, the information intermediated as a consequence of IPOs relaxes the constraints of an acquirer's information environment, and this is particularly the case for diversifying acquirers.     

参蛤散对COPD稳定期肺功能及血清IL-、TNF-α影响的研究

目的本研究通过口服参蛤散与吸入舒利迭粉剂进行对比，观察参蛤散对COPD稳定期患者肺功能及血清IL-8、TNF-α的影响。方法测定COPD稳定期患者60例，随机分为治疗组和对照组各30例，治疗组口服参蛤散，对照组常规吸入舒利迭粉剂，观察用药前和治疗3个月及6个月后的各项指数。结果治疗3个月、6个月后，治疗组血清IL-8及TNF-α明显下降，肺功能较前有明显改善，两组患者临床疗效比较，治疗组症状明显改善。结论参蛤散能较明显改善COPD稳定期患者肺功能，降低血清IL-8及TNF—α水平。