“十三五”时期中国经济社会发展面临的环境与发展新要求

“十三五”时期是中国现代化建设过程中的关键时期,然而展望“十三五”时期,中国经济社会发展面临着国内外环境复杂多变的考验:一方面面临世界经济增长不确定性增强、全球生产组织方式剧烈变化、全球投资和贸易规则酝酿新变化、大宗商品价格持续降低等国际环境;另一方面,面临经济增长换挡、产业转型压力紧迫、人口问题突出、产能过剩严重、资源环境压力大等国内环境。同时,随着国内外环境的变化,“十三五”时期中国多数原有的增长点将出现动力不足,但是也要看到当前中国经济发展过程中正孕育着一些新的增长点,关键是在发展战略、思路和具体的政策等方面做出调整。     

九世班禅与十三世达赖失和原因探析

达赖、班禅两大活佛系统,同领藏传佛教格鲁派。清中叶以前的历辈达赖、班禅均能彼此相安,和好相处,各执领地。然而到了清朝末年,在多方因素的制约下,双方产生矛盾并不断升级,最终九世班禅与十三世达赖关系破裂。其矛盾演变结果,对近代西藏地方的发展和中央与西藏地方的关系产生了一定影响。     

The effects of ROS in prostatic stromal cells under hypoxic environment

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study is to explore the effects of reactive oxygen species (ROS) under hypoxic environment in prostatic stromal cells (PSC).

Methods and materials: To detect the expression of ROS in PSC and the tissues of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) by flow cytometry; under hypoxic conditions, to observe the changes of cells growth and ROS in PSC; quantitative PCR was used to detect hypoxia inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α), androgen receptors (AR), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and interleukin-8 (IL-8) in PSC; After edaravone intervening, to examine the changes of cells growth, ROS, HIF-1α, AR, VEGF, and IL-8 under hypoxic conditions.

Results: The expression of ROS in tissues and cells which under hypoxic condition was significantly increased. 3% O₂ promoted the proliferation. The HIF-1α, AR, VEGF, and IL-8 were upregulated under 3% O₂. After edaravone intervening, ROS significantly decreased, HIF-1α and VEGF were downregulated, and cell proliferation declined.

Conclusions: Hypoxia stimulates the generation of ROS, and the ROS may play a key role in BPH.     

The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999     

ESTIMATION OF DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH MINIMAL VARIATION OF ALTERNATIVE-SPECIFIC VARIABLES

The paper states conditions for minimal variation within the explanatory variables such that the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient vector in the discrete choice logit model is unique. Special emphasis is given to the case that (almost) all individuals observe the same set of alternative-specific explanatory variables. The aspect of 'experimental design' in discrete choice models is discussed.     

Family size and optimal income taxation

This paper studies the role of family size in the design of optimal income taxation. We consider a second best setting where the government observes the number of children and the income of the parents but not their productivity. With a linear tax schedule the marginal tax rate is shown to decrease with the number of children, while the relationship between the demogrant and family size appears to be ambiguous. With two ability levels, optimal non-linear income tax implies zero marginal tax rates for the higher ability parents; low ability parents have positive marginal tax rates that decrease with family size. Received: 4 September 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001     

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Geography, demography, and early development

This paper explores the role of geography in early development. It presents a model where the odds of survival are higher in geographically favorable regions. In such regions, higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enables them to invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth, helps geographically-favorable economies to attain high levels of a more educated population that is necessary for sustained economic growth. The empirical evidence is generally supportive of the view that geographic attributes influenced regional population levels in Europe and its colonial offshoots around 1500 A.D. and that they affected population levels and educational attainment in low-income countries of the 1990s. For useful comments and suggestions I thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Ann Carlos, Phil Graves, Naci Mocan, Oded Stark, seminar participants at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and the 2002 Royal Economic Society Annual Conference. I owe a special debt of gratitude to my advisor Herschel Grossman who passed away in October 2004 after leaving his mark on many of us in the profession. The standard disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Dynamic factor models

Summary Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be usefu in investigating macroeconomic problems.     

A Comment on Ali Tas˛ıran's `Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and in the United States'

This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data. Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001 I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.