Capacity Updating Rules and Rational Belief Change

Choquet expected utility substitutes capacities for subjective probabilities to explain uncertainty aversion and related phenomena. This paper studies capacities as models of belief. The notions of inner and outer acceptance context are defined. These are shown to be the natural acceptance contexts when belief expansion is described by naïve Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer updating of capacities respectively. We also show that Eichberger and Kelsey's (1999b) use of Dempster–Shafer updating as a model of belief revision may lead to violations of the AGM axioms for rational belief change.     

Do what (you think) the rich will do: Inequality and belief heterogeneity in public good provision

Beliefs about others’ cooperativeness are among the strongest determinants of cooperative behaviours. Beliefs about different others, however, are not necessarily uniform, nor necessarily related to past behaviours: Different expectations about different others might solely originate from differences in observed individual characteristics. Finally, not all such beliefs need drive conditional behaviour alike.In a public good game with heterogeneous endowments, I find that rich subjects are expected to cooperate more by both rich and poor individuals, and that behaviours of both the rich and poor correlate only with beliefs about the rich. An intervention aimed at increasing perceived group cohesion has no impact on beliefs and mixed impacts on cooperation. I conclude with implications for information dissemination about uncooperative behaviour in the mass media and avenues for further research.     

Replication: Belief elicitation with quadratic and binarized scoring rules

Researchers increasingly elicit beliefs to understand the underlying motivations of decision makers. Two commonly used methods are the quadratic scoring rule (QSR) and the binarized scoring rule (BSR). Hossain and Okui (2013) use a within-subject design to evaluate the performance of these two methods in an environment where subjects report probabilistic beliefs over binary outcomes with objective probabilities. In a near replication of their study, we show that their results continue to hold with a between-subject design. This is an important validation of the BSR given that researchers typically implement only one method to elicit beliefs. In favor of the BSR, reported beliefs are less accurate under the QSR than the BSR. Consistent with theoretical predictions, risk-averse subjects distort their reported beliefs under the QSR.     

宗教会自行消亡吗?

马克思、恩格斯曾预言 ,宗教会自行消亡 ,其根据是宗教的认识根源、阶级根源、社会根源将被消除。费尔巴哈揭示了宗教的另一个根源 :心理根源。这个根源是不能被彻底消除的。宗教的消亡只能是宗教特殊形态的消亡 ,而不会是宗教本身或一切宗教形态的消亡     

Capturing and Integrating Knowledge for Managing Risks in Tunnel Works

Risk‐related knowledge gained from past construction projects is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. This article describes a proposed approach to capture and integrate risk‐related knowledge to support decision making in construction projects. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert judgment is elicited to augment available information. Particularly, the article provides an overview of judgment‐based biases that can appear in the elicitation of judgments for constructing Bayesian Networks and the provisos that can be made in this respect to minimize these types of bias. The proposed approach is successfully applied to develop six models for top risks in tunnel works. More than 30 tunneling experts in the Netherlands and Germany were involved in the investigation to provide information on identifying relevant scenarios than can lead to failure events associated with tunneling risks. The article has provided an illustration of the applicability of the developed approach for the case of “face instability in soft soils using slurry shields.”