农民工子女留守原因分析

农民工子女留守农村是国家现行城乡分割的二元体制的结果,也是城乡两种不同社会与文明推拉合力作用的产物,同时是作为父母的农民工在迁移流动中的理性抉择与意识建构。城市生存境遇、乡村归属意识及城乡分割的义务教育体制等是农民工子女留守的重要因素。解决农民工子女问题,需要城乡相关体制的建立。     

战后德国的男性人口短缺——规模、结构及其影响因素分析

本文对战后德国男性人口短缺的规模、结构及其影响因素进行了认真的分析.研究表明战后德国男性人口短缺非常严重,但随着时间的推移,男性短缺矛盾逐年趋于缓和.究其原因,性别结构因素在其中扮演了绝对重要的角色,但其影响逐年减弱,年龄结构因素的影响有限,而人口规律因素的影响则有所增强.     

Evaluation of Embedded Intelligent Real‐time Systems*

Over the past two decades, questions have surfaced about the effectiveness and contribution of intelligent systems to decision makers in a variety of settings. This paper focuses on the evaluation challenges associated with intelligent real‐time software systems that are embedded in larger host systems. With the proliferation of such systems in operational settings such as aerospace, medical, manufacturing, and transportation systems, increased attention to evaluations of such systems, and to resulting software safety, is warranted. This paper describes one such evaluation and proposes a set of evaluation criteria for embedded intelligent real‐time systems (EIRTS). Implications of the evaluation and the evaluation criteria are discussed.     

An appraisal of key factors in the implementation of occupational stress interventions

Empirical research on stress intervention in organizations, and experience from organizational change programmes in general, indicates that obtaining intended change is often more difficult than it had been conceived to be at the outset. In order to facilitate the accomplishment of stress prevention and effective organizational change, this paper examines the importance of the social and cognitive processes influencing the implementation of any intervention. It states that if change is to be managed skilfully, it is important (1) to create a social climate of learning from failure, (2) to provide opportunities for multi-level participation and negotiation in the design of interventions, (3) to be aware of tacit behaviours that possibly undermine the objectives of interventions, and (4) to define roles and responsibilities before and during the intervention period.     

基于认知分层理论的外语思辨能力研究

思辨能力培养是我国外语专业教学的薄弱环节,更是外语人才培养的软肋。外语专业教学必须以培养学生的思辨能力为导向,纠正影响思辨能力发展的外部因素。文章基于布鲁姆认知能力分层理论,以具体的写作课、语言学课、英语演讲课为例,从不同角度、不同内容和不同层次对思辨能力的培养纳入外语专业的教育过程进行了详实阐述,所以只有提升外语专业学生的思辨能力,才能提高外语人才的培养质量。     

依赖与脆弱性：农民养老问题的一个实证分析——基于全国十个省份1000余位农民的调查数据

文章基于2009年全国十个省份30个行政村1000余位农民的调查数据,从“依赖性一脆弱性一养老困境”的逻辑关系出发．以农民养老的经济依赖途径为切入点。利用Multinomial Logistic回归模型,实证分析了农民养老的脆弱性及其影响因素。结果显示,那些同时具备女性、年龄较大、养儿防老观念比较强、家庭收入比较低、没有儿子、家庭整劳力比较少、纯农户和所在村经济情况比较差特征的农民,是依赖性最强的农民,他们面临的养老脆弱性程度也最高。由于现实生活中。全部具备上述所有条件的农民毕竟是少数。但农村社会政策刺定部门可以根据农民满足上述条件的多寡．来判断其养老脆弱性程度的高低。并以此为依据选择农村社会政策的重点关注对象。     

Causal inferences on the effectiveness of complex social programs: Navigating assumptions,sources of complexity and evaluation design challenges

This paper explores avenues for navigating evaluation design challenges posed by complex social programs (CSPs) and their environments when conducting studies that call for generalizable, causal inferences on the intervention’s effectiveness. A definition is provided of a CSP drawing on examples from different fields, and an evaluation case is analyzed in depth to derive seven (7) major sources of complexity that typify CSPs, threatening assumptions of textbook-recommended experimental designs for performing impact evaluations. Theoretically-supported, alternative methodological strategies are discussed to navigate assumptions and counter the design challenges posed by the complex configurations and ecology of CSPs. Specific recommendations include: sequential refinement of the evaluation design through systems thinking, systems-informed logic modeling; and use of extended term, mixed methods (ETMM) approaches with exploratory and confirmatory phases of the evaluation. In the proposed approach, logic models are refined through direct induction and interactions with stakeholders. To better guide assumption evaluation, question-framing, and selection of appropriate methodological strategies, a multiphase evaluation design is recommended.     

A bibliographic study of public relations in Spanish media and communication journals, 2000–2012

This study analyses the trends and visibility of research on public relations in the most relevant Spanish media and communication journals between the years 2000 and 2012. Bibliometrics and content analysis are used to show the reduced presence of articles on public relations in these publications. A trend towards gender parity in authorship is confirmed in the sample, as well as a plurality of universities and a variety of research themes. The study also proves preference for generic questions rather than for specialised topics. Another finding is that almost one fourth of the specific articles on this discipline do not contain the term “public relations”. This can hint towards the need to have a specific high-impact publication on public relations to bring together and provide visibility to the contributions of researchers in this field.     

The Food Crisis and its Impacts on Poverty in Senegal and Mali: Crossed Destinies

This article uses two CGE macro‐micro models to analyse the distributional impact of the food crisis and policy responses in two neighbouring African countries, both of which are strongly dependent on agriculture. The approach captures structural differences at both the macro and micro level for household income and expenditure structures, and the results reveal differences for poverty impact at the national and sub‐group levels, as well as for inequality and pro‐poor analysis. The importance of country‐specific analysis and the risk of extrapolating conclusions from one country to another are also highlighted.