Robust Smoothed Rank Estimation Methods for Accelerated Failure Time Model Allowing Clusters

Smoothed Gehan rank estimation methods are widely used in accelerated failure time (AFT) models with/without clusters. However, most methods are sensitive to outliers in the covariates. In order to solve this problem, we propose robust approaches based on the smoothed Gehan rank estimation methods for the AFT model, allowing for clusters by employing two different weight functions. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods outperform existing smoothed rank estimation methods regarding their biases and standard deviations when there are outliers in the covariates. The proposed methods are also applied to a real dataset from the “Major cardiovascular interventions” study.     

Government Intervention in Public Sector Industrial Relations: Lessons from the Alberta Teachers’ Association

In the public sector, Canadian governments intervene frequently in labor disputes by suspending collective bargaining and curtailing legal strikes. Previous research has focused on the contours of government intervention, such as its overall effects on collective bargaining and strikes. The discussion highlights one actor, a government, restricting the behavior of another actor, a union, using legislation and policy making. As a result, we know less about more micro-level elements and implications of the process of government intervention. I address these themes using a detailed case study of the Alberta Teachers’ Association and the strikes it coordinated in 2002.

工业取用水监测奇异数据挖掘与重构方法

提高工业取用水监测数据质量是目前国家水资源监控能力建设的重要内容,而奇异值问题已成为影响监测数据质量的关键短板。本文在解析现阶段工业取用水监测数据奇异值主要类型基础上,以国家水资源管理系统数据库中工业取用水监测数据为样本,利用小波变换模极大值模型提取工业取用水监测数据时频变化特征,并利用傅里叶函数对其残差序列进行修正,进而运用相对误差控制方法挖掘监测数据奇异值。在此基础上,采用混沌粒子群优化的最小二乘支持向量机模型重构填补奇异值数据。研究结果表明：小波变换模极大值模型能够较好地提取工业取用水监测数据序列的时频变化特征,但是同时容易导致监测数据的信息损失,利用傅里叶函数对小波变换进行残差修正则可进一步提升取用水监测数据序列的特征提取效果;以小波变换模极大值特征序列为基础,通过相对误差控制可实现对监测数据奇异值的高效挖掘;对于挖掘出的奇异值重构填补问题,可选取混沌粒子群优化的最小二乘支持向量机模型,其重构精度要优于多项式曲线拟合等传统统计学方法和普通最小二乘支持向量机模型。上述工业取用水监测数据奇异值挖掘重构策略为现阶段国家水资源监控能力建设的推进提供了重要技术方法支持。     

要素匹配与中国投资效率空间差异性——基于双层嵌套型函数的分解研究

本文基于四要素双层嵌套的生产函数,利用1990-2016年全国层面及省际层面数据测算投资效率,并分析其空间结构特征及演变轨迹,检验投资效率匹配效应影响因素。研究发现：①1990-2016年我国整体投资效率呈下降趋势,资本-技能劳动匹配效应与整体投资效率走势趋同,快速累积的资本存量和不断升级的资本质量与短缺的技能劳动之间矛盾突出。②东中西部地区投资效率增长非一致性明显。东部地区资本相对投资效率明显高于中西部,但下降幅度大于中西部,中西部与东部地区之间差距缩小,其中匹配效应是区域间投资效率非平衡的主要成因。③若产业结构升级的技能劳动需求不能满足,将引发要素错配,不利于有效投资。房价与工资提升分别通过影响技能劳动供给和需求抑制要素匹配效率;教育和公路设施会对地区要素匹配产生积极影响,改善地区间投资效率非均衡性;地区投资效率存在显著正向空间相关性,毗邻地区的要素流动和经济发展相近地区的技术溢出均对投资效率产生积极的影响。     

Three notes on a political economy of youth

The paper seeks to makes a contribution to a recent debate in the Journal about what a political economy of youth might look like. The paper will take up aspects of Sukarieh and Tannock’s [2016. ‘On the political economy of youth: a comment.’ Journal of Youth Studies 19 (9): 1281–1289] response to the initial contributions by Côté [2014. ‘Towards a New Political Economy of Youth.’ Journal of Youth Studies 17 (4): 527–543, 2016. ‘A New Political Economy of Youth Reprised: Rejoinder to France and Threadgold.’ Journal of Youth Studies.] And France and Threadgold [2015. ‘Youth and Political Economy: Towards a Bourdieusian Approach.’ Journal of Youth Studies], and will take the form of three ‘notes’: Capitalism: From the first industrial revolution to the third industrial revolution; Youth as an artefact of governmentalised expertise; The agency/structure problem in youth studies: Foucault’s dispositif and post-human exceptionalism.

These notes will suggest that twenty-first century capitalism is globalising, is largely neo-Liberal, and is being reconfigured in profound ways by the Anthropocene, bio-genetics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). A political economy of twenty-first century capitalism, let alone a political economy of young people, must be able to account for a capitalism that in many ways looks like the capitalism of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions, but which is at the same time profoundly different as it enters what has often been described as the Third Industrial Revolution. It is these profound emergences that pose the greatest challenges for engaging with a political economy of youth.     

从贸易救济措施谈及河北省流通行业安全保护问题

在经济全球化和贸易自由化的趋势下,处于WTO后过渡时期的中国面临着出口产品屡遭反倾销、反补贴与保障措施等贸易救济措施的挑战。这不但影响了河北省的出口贸易环境,更关系到河北省产业的发展和经济安全。本文从实体和程序两大角度对"两反一保"进行了解析,并在此基础上,对当前河北省产业安全面临的严峻形势及其应对策略进行了阐释。     

工业革命时期英国的结社法研究

英国的结社法是政府为限制工人结社而制定的法律。在18世纪之前,英国并没有特别针对结社的立法,多半是在一些劳工法令中有限制劳工结社的条款。1720年英国通过了第一个结社法,此后历经数次修正。工业革命时期英国的结社法对于工人结社以及工会运动的发展起到了很大的阻碍作用。1871年,结社法不复存在而代之以工会法,工会取得合法地位,工会运动得到了一定发展。     

我国制造业集聚变迁与全要素生产率增长研究

本文选取我国29个省市区和17个制造行业1990～2009年的面板数据,对相对专业化与相对多样化集聚度进行了计算及变迁分析,利用Malmquist指数测算了全要素生产率的增长,并分析了产业集聚变迁对全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:我国东部地区呈现多样化与专业化集聚均衡发展的特征,而中西部地区则具有相对较高的专业化集聚水平,呈现产业结构单一化与非均衡化;东部地区全要素生产率增长较快,中西部地区相对滞后;相对专业化与多样化集聚对东部、中部与西部地区的影响存在地区差异。基于此,本文提出了加快产业结构调整、实施均衡的区域发展政策和提高经济组织制度绩效的政策建议。     

新疆产业结构变迁与恩格尔系数协整关系的实证研究

通过构造一个由消费结构、城镇居民收入水平、第二产业结构和第三产业结构四个变量组成的VAR模型,对新疆城乡居民的消费结构与产业结构相互作用的关系及其动态特征进行了实证研究。根据设定的模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、预测方差分解和协整检验,发现新疆城镇居民消费结构会影响第二产业结构的转换,随着居民收入水平的提高,恩格尔系数呈下降趋势。城乡居民收入水平对产业结构升级产生一定影响。     

产业升级必须关注开放性与拓展国际视野

促进我国产业升级,必须高度重视经济全球化发展的新态势,而这主要体现在3个方面:区域性合作势头增强,国际产业转移速度加快并形成多向特点;跨国公司作为经济全球化的主要载体,其全球拓展的组织形态尤其是总部形态呈现多样化。在产业升级的过程中,关注开放性和拓展国际视野应采取6项举措,即:在继续扩大对外开放中,促进产业增量升级;在国际购并中推进产业升级;在优化出口结构中带动产业升级;在创造跨国公司总部、地区分部以及功能性组织发展环境中优化产业升级;在帮助企业"走出去"的过程中扶持产业升级;在融入区域合作经济发展中支撑产业升级。