Endogenous Adaptation: The Effects of Technology Position and Planning Mode on IT‐Enabled Change*

The redesign of information technology (IT)‐enabled work processes often necessitates fundamental design changes to the intended work process, the IT platform hosting the work process, or both. Research suggests that such design changes often can be traced to earlier decisions involving endogenous adaptation or internal organizational change. Two such decisions are a firm's technology position and planning mode. This study examines the relationship between technology position and planning mode in predicting the magnitude of design change in process redesign projects. The conceptual frame applied in examining these relationships involves a synthesis of Miles and Snow's adaptive cycle with elements central to concurrent engineering. Our results indicate that the magnitude of design change is related to differences in technology position and planning mode. To effectively implement organizational change, firms must leverage their IT platform by carefully timing IT investments in accordance with their adopted technology position. Directing the trajectory of a firm's IT platform and deploying it so as to complement the firm's technology position reduces design uncertainty, promoting reengineering success.     

Marginal Trust in Risk Managers: Building and Losing Trust Following Decisions Under Uncertainty

Although a considerable amount of research has examined correlates of baseline public trust in risk managers, much less research has looked at marginal changes in public trust following specific events. Such research is important for identifying what kinds of events will lead to increases and decreases in public trust and thus for understanding how trust is built and lost. Using a taxonomy based upon signal detection theory (SDT), the current article presents two experimental studies examining marginal trust change following eight different types of events. Supporting predictions, cautious decisionmakers who accepted signs of danger (Hits and False Alarms) were more likely to be trusted than those who rejected them (All Clears and Misses). Moreover, transparency about an event was associated with higher levels of marginal trust than a lack of transparency in line with earlier findings. Contrary to predictions, however, trust was less affected by whether the decisions were correct (i.e., Hits and All Clears) or incorrect (i.e., False Alarms and Misses). This finding was primarily due to a "False Alarm Effect" whereby Open False Alarms led to positive increases in trust despite being incorrect assessments of risk. Results are explained in terms of a cue diagnosticity account of impression formation and suggest that a taxonomy of event types based on SDT may be useful in furthering our understanding of how public trust in risk managers is gained and lost.     

产业结构高级化与第三产业现代化

随着产业结构高级化,中外第三产业比重日趋增大,与人均GDP呈幂函数型相关关系。第三产业内部结构升级表现为流通部门比重下降,生活生产服务部门比重提高,传统服务业比重下降,现代服务业比重上升。由于对产业结构高级化趋势缺乏了解,对第三产业的性质、现代化与就业的关系存在误解,中国长期没有把第三产业现代化战略提上议事日程。在产业结构高级化、第三产业比重日趋增大的形势下,我国很有必要全面推进第三产业现代化。     

Some Recent Developments in Econometric Inference

Abstract

Recent results in information theory, see Soofi (1996; 2001) for a review, include derivations of optimal information processing rules, including Bayes' theorem, for learning from data based on minimizing a criterion functional, namely output information minus input information as shown in Zellner (1988; 1991; 1997; 2002). Herein, solution post data densities for parameters are obtained and studied for cases in which the input information is that in (1) a likelihood function and a prior density; (2) only a likelihood function; and (3) neither a prior nor a likelihood function but only input information in the form of post data moments of parameters, as in the Bayesian method of moments approach. Then it is shown how optimal output densities can be employed to obtain predictive densities and optimal, finite sample structural coefficient estimates using three alternative loss functions. Such optimal estimates are compared with usual estimates, e.g., maximum likelihood, two‐stage least squares, ordinary least squares, etc. Some Monte Carlo experimental results in the literature are discussed and implications for the future are provided.     

A Characterization of probability densities with expected log likelihood

In the class of all densities with constraints E b_i(X) = c,(i = 1,....,q), it is well known that the entropy is maximized by the density belonging to the exponential family specified by b_i(x), i = 1,....,q. Our aim in this note is to generalize theresult by using expected log likelihood.     

汉语篇章结构标注的理论支撑

国外研究者以修辞结构理论为支撑对大批量的英语语篇结构进行标注,取得了可观的成绩,这为汉语语篇标注带来很多启示。鉴于英汉语篇之间的差异,提出以汉语的句群理论为支撑对汉语语篇结构进行标注。首先,汉语的句群理论与RST理论的根本假设、主要性质是一致的;其次,RST理论的分析基于从句和小句,这顺应了英语重形合的特征。然而,对于汉语重意合的特征RST理论很难发挥其应有的作用;最后,清华的多层级中文树库中已经涉及到篇章层面句群的识别,为以句群理论为支撑的汉语篇章结构标注奠定了基础。     

Information-statistical pattern based approach for data mining

This paper presents information theory and statistical analysis as two fundamental conceptual tools for data mining. A data mining technique based on these two conceptual tools consists of three steps. The first step is a statistical approach for discovering data patterns. The second step is an information-theoretic approach for identifying models that encapsulate the statistical behavior of the data patterns. The last step is a probabilistic approach for pattern-based inference that uncovers unknown significant event patterns.     

Tests of fit for the Laplace distribution based on correcting moments of entropy estimators

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we first consider the entropy estimators introduced by Vasicek [A test for normality based on sample entropy. J R Statist Soc, Ser B. 1976;38:54–59], Ebrahimi et al. [Two measures of sample entropy. Stat Probab Lett. 1994;20:225–234], Yousefzadeh and Arghami [Testing exponentiality based on type II censored data and a new cdf estimator. Commun Stat – Simul Comput. 2008;37:1479–1499], Alizadeh Noughabi and Arghami [A new estimator of entropy. J Iran Statist Soc. 2010;9:53–64], and Zamanzade and Arghami [Goodness-of-fit test based on correcting moments of modified entropy estimator. J Statist Comput Simul. 2011;81:2077–2093], and the nonparametric distribution functions corresponding to them. We next introduce goodness-of-fit test statistics for the Laplace distribution based on the moments of nonparametric distribution functions of the aforementioned estimators. We obtain power estimates of the proposed test statistics with Monte Carlo simulation and compare them with the competing test statistics against various alternatives. Performance of the proposed new test statistics is illustrated in real cases.     

老年个案工作问题的分析及解决思路——低保户孤寡老人的个案研究

传统孤寡老人的个案工作注重个人的觉醒和充权的培养以达致恢复老人身份认同和认知能力以适应社会发展的需要,从而改善自我困境。但是,传统的思想却忽视了其问题的形成的根本原因,即结构性问题。由于结构性问题是贯穿于问题的始终,因而分析孤寡老人的问题形成及探讨解决思路需要置身于结构性的背景中,从其关系网络、家庭结构、互动关系对其角色和能力影响角度去考量。     

Competition network as a source of competitive advantage: The dynamic capability perspective and evidence from China

The search for competitive advantage is the defining inquiry of strategic management research. In this study, we draw on the dynamic capability lens to develop a counterintuitive view that positions competitors of a firm as an important source of competitive advantage. We argue that a firm's competitors form a competition network from which it can collect information about innovative ideas, product market, and related industries. Such information helps it calibrate market opportunities, update the resource base, and, eventually, strengthen its competitive advantage. This positive effect of competition network on competitive advantage will reasonably be contingent upon the proactive information search by the firm. The empirical results based on the survey data of 631 Chinese firms strongly support our theoretical model. This study identifies another distinctive source of competitive advantage than industry context or organizational resources as well as advancing our understanding of competition network.