Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey

Summary.  We analyse patterns of consent and consent bias in the context of a large general household survey, the 'Improving survey measurement of income and employment' survey, also addressing issues that arise when there are multiple consent questions. A multivariate probit regression model for four binary outcomes with two incidental truncations is used. We show that there are biases in consent to data linkage with benefit and tax credit administrative records that are held by the Department for Work and Pensions, and with wage and employment data held by employers. There are also biases in respondents' willingness and ability to supply their national insurance number. The biases differ according to the question that is considered. We also show that modelling questions on consent independently rather than jointly may lead to misleading inferences about consent bias. A positive correlation between unobservable individual factors affecting consent to Department for Work and Pensions record linkage and consent to employer record linkage is suggestive of a latent individual consent propensity.     

Measures of mortality in the study of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus in the UK haemophilia population

Two statistical issues that have arisen in the course of a study of mortality and disease related to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the haemophilia population of the UK are discussed. The first of these concerns methods of standardization for age and it is shown that, when the mortality of HIV-infected individuals with different severities of haemophilia are compared, an analysis based on the ratio of observed to national expected deaths suggests that mortality in HIV-infected individuals depends on the severity of their haemophilia. This conclusion is inappropriate and mortality in HIV-infected individuals is, in fact, similar regardless of severity of haemophilia. The second part of the paper discusses the effect of using various end points for studies of survival and progression of HIV-related disease. In the present example it was possible to calculate relative survival in HIV-infected individuals, i.e. survival after correcting for mortality expected in the absence of HIV infection. An analysis based on absolute survival gave a very similar picture of the effect of age at infection to an analysis based on relative survival, whereas an analysis based on the time to diagnosis of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) underestimated the effect substantially and the possible alternative end point of time to AIDS or HIV-related death was shown to be subject to considerable misclassification error.     

‘They follow the wants and needs of an institution’: Midwives’ views of water immersion

BackgroundA midwife’s ability to fully support women’s autonomy and self-determination with respect to midwifery care is often challenging. This is particularly true of water immersion for labour and birth. However, the woman’s agency over what happens to her body and that of her unborn baby should be key considerations for maternity care provision.ObjectivesA three phased mixed-methods study was undertaken to examine how water immersion policies and guidelines are informed. Phase three of this study captured the knowledge and experiences of Australian midwives, their support for water immersion and their experiences of using policies and guidelines to inform and facilitate the practice.MethodsCritical, post structural, interpretive interactionism was used to examine more than 300 responses to three open-ended questions included in a survey of 233 midwives. Comment data were analysed to provide further insight, context and meaning to previously reported results.FindingsFindings demonstrated a complex, multidimensional interplay of factors that impacted on both the midwife’s ability to offer and the woman’s decision to use water immersion under the themes ‘the reality of the system’, ‘the authoritative ‘others’’ and ‘the pseudo decision-makers’. Multiple scaffolded levels were identified, each influenced by the wider macro-socio-political landscape of Australian midwifery care.ConclusionsThe insight gained from examining midwives’ views and opinions of water for labour and birth, has aided in contextualising previously reported results. Such insight highlights the importance of qualitative research in challenging the status quo and working towards woman-centred practice and policy.     

The Other Le Grand? Evaluating the 'Other Invisible Hand' in Welfare Services in England

Competition and choice have become central means of improving public services in England. The former adviser to the Blair government Julian Le Grand has suggested that increased choice and competition should be the cornerstone of policy that aims to deliver more responsive and fairer results for the public. This article explores Le Grand's claims, deploying the conditions earlier suggested by him to examine the conditions which 'quasi-markets will have to meet if they are to succeed as instruments of social policy'. Claims about the efficacy of choice and competition policies in 2007 are assessed against the earlier conditions of market structure, information, transaction costs, uncertainty, motivation and cream-skimming, to examine the extent to which the reforms Le Grand has most recently proposed meet the conditions he earlier suggested would be necessary for markets to work in the public sector.     

经济新常态下合作创新模式探究

我国经济已进入新常态,合作创新作为重要的技术创新战略纳入国家创新体系。从新常态的显著特征、国际经济形势、国家创新战略、科技快速发展等方面分析了合作创新面临的新环境,从合作创新的动力和目的的角度,将合作创新模式分为有明确的创新目标、有清晰的创新方向、立足战略领域和行业发展等三个层次进行剖析,并对经济新常态下合作创新模式的选择提出了思路。     

On the Use of Buy Up as a Model of Customer Choice in Revenue Management

We consider settings in which a revenue manager controls bookings over a sequence of flights. The revenue manager uses a buy‐up model to select booking limits and updates estimates of the model parameters as data are accumulated. The buy‐up model we consider is based upon a simple model of customer choice, wherein each low‐fare customer who is not able to purchase a low‐fare ticket will, with a fixed probability, “buy up” to the high fare, independent of everything else. We analyze the evolution of the parameter estimates (e.g., the buy‐up probability) and chosen booking limits in situations where the buy‐up model is misspecified, that is, in situations where there is no setting of its parameters for which its objective function gives an accurate representation of expected revenue as a function of the booking limit. The analysis is motivated by the common situation in which a revenue manager does not know precisely how customers behave but nevertheless uses a parametric model to make decisions. Under some assumptions, we prove that the booking limits and parameter estimates converge and we compare the actual expected revenue at the limiting values with that associated with the booking limits that would be chosen if the revenue manager knew the actual behavior of customers. The analysis shows that the buy‐up model often works reasonably well even when it is misspecified, and also reveals the importance of understanding how parameter estimates of misspecified models vary as functions of decisions.     

农村“宗教热”原因探究：宗教社会风险假说

基于宗教理性选择理论,提出宗教风险假说,认为风险以及风险应对能力是人们做出宗教选择的一个重要因素。从市场经济、贫困和弱势群体等角度,根据作者调查数据、国家统计数据以及其他全国和局部调查数据,对上述假设进行了检验。结果表明:(1)市场经济中的宗教需求要高于计划经济;(2)市场经济越发达的地区,信教密度就越高;(3)弱势群体的宗教需求要高于强势群体。这些结果证明了宗教风险假说的合理性。最后依据该假说,提出针对当前农村"宗教热"政策建议主要有两点:(1)降低农村人口所面临的风险;(2)提高其应对风险的能力。     

淮安市老年人养老模式选择意愿实证分析

以淮安市869例老人的问卷调查数据为依据,运用Logistic模型对淮安市老年人养老模式的选择意愿进行了实证分析.研究发现:年龄、性别、文化程度、健康状况对养老方式的选择没有显著影响,而婚姻状况、家庭类型、居住地、月收入和最担心的问题有显著影响.     

Using Choice Experiments to Assess People''s Preferences for Railway Transports of Hazardous Materials

This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.