Profile of Some Patients Who Prematurely Terminate Analysis

This paper is concerned with cases in which patients who have been well established in treatment decide to end it prematurely. In examining the issue among my patients who left against my advice, I isolated in some of them a number of common traits, of which the existence of a long-standing idealizing transference was central. Four of these cases are presented, including two in which the resistance was successfully penetrated and two in which it was not and the patient left treatment. The definition of premature termination is seen in the context of that of a complete analysis.     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Almost Consistent Estimation of Panel Probit Models with “Small” Fixed Effects

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.     

论宋元之际江西遗民词的内容特质

文学作品是作家本性、人格精神的复现。江西遗民词作为江西遗民词人群个性、心灵之诗意表现 ,其中所表露出的欲挽狂澜于既倒、重整乾坤的雄心与壮志、对自身归属感的积极寻求和对自己所处时空的理性反思、及对社会人生的执著与关注等内容 ,正是这个词人群体在江西独特的地域文化环境中生成的豪逸之气、忠义之心、耿直之性等群体特征的文学表达 ,具有鲜明的地域共性与特色。     

试论建筑防灾中的人群管理和应急管理

从社会心理学和行为心理学视角分析紧急灾难情况下人群的心理反应,阐明控制人群恐慌的人群管理方法,并结合国内外实例从正反两个方面说明人群管理方法在建筑防灾方面的有效性,进一步论述了应急管理在国内的发展方向和重点。     

Risk,trust and knowledge networks in farmers’ learning

This study reports on New Zealand dairy farmers’ access to and use of information as mediated through conditions of risk and trust within the context of their interpersonal social networks. We located participants’ reports of their information use within their perceived environments of trust and risk, following Giddens's [1990. The consequences of modernity. Polity Press, Stanford, CA] typology of trust and risk in pre-modernity and modernity. The research participants were constant users of interpersonal and print information from numerous sources, and monitored their incoming data in the light of strategic needs, reflecting their roles as both farming practitioners and business owners. Socio-spatial knowledge networks (SSKNs) combine individuals’ explanatory cognitive models of information acquisition and use with a micro-geographical analysis of their interpersonal networks. The participants showed characteristics of pre-modern, modern and even post-modern society in respect of their use of complex interactional forms, as well as a blending of individualistic and communitarian practices and concerns in their professional and personal lives.     

The use of GIS in informal settlement upgrading: its role and impact on the community and on local government

The Urban Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Group within the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Cape Town has been coordinating a pilot informal settlement upgrading in Cape Town since 1998. The project objective has been the evolution of a model-based approach to informal settlement upgrading that is both structured and replicable. It was felt that the only way this could be achieved was through the use of a spatial data management system operated through a GIS system. The spatial database has been used for all facets of data collection and data process and forms the basis for all decision-making. Thus it covers all physical data pertaining to the site, cadastral and shack data, demographic and socio-economic data (with an in-depth review of every household) economic opportunities and physical planning and design data. The result is a comprehensive, integrated, settlement upgrading methodology that is built upon a GIS-based spatial data management framework. Such a framework is seen as the basic building block for large-scale informal settlement upgrading.     

Complex belief-desire reasoning in children

Previous research concerned with children's belief-desire psychology has examined the capacity to predict or interpret action on the basis of the implicit proposition that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, he or she will undertake that action’. The limitations of this formulation for understanding acts of omission are outlined and an elaborated version of belief-desire psychology introduced. This version holds that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, and when it is believed that there are no co-occurring outcomes of that action whose avoidance is desired more highly than is the originally conceived end, then the actor will undertake the action which will satisfy the original desire’. An experiment is reported which examines 4-, 5, and 7-year-olds' ability to predict story characters' actions on the basis of either their true or false beliefs concerning undesirable outcomes associated with the pursuit of a desired end. Children of all age-groups provided evidence of understanding the elaborated version of belief-desire psychology. However, a significant improvement was noted between the ages of 4 and 7 years in the ability to understand circumstances involving false beliefs.     

人力资源开发与高校办学定位

教育是人力资源开发的主导形式,高校办学定位直接影响着人才培养的类型和规格。适应科学技术的发展和社会经济增长方式的转变,高校办学定位必须与时俱进,不断调整和革新。在当前和今后相当长一段时间,高师院校必须走“以师为本、综合发展”之路。