对不足额保险下代位求偿权的探讨

不足额保险下,当保险标的由于第三者责任造成保险损失后,保险人在履行赔偿义务的前提下,取得对第三者的代位追偿权。同时,被保险人也有权就未获得足额赔偿的部分向第三者索赔。由于《保险法》及相关法律并没有规定谁拥有优先索赔权,也没有对不足额保险下保险人的代位求偿权益大小的确定依据作明确规定,从而导致了对追偿所得的不同处理意见。作者认为不足额保险下,保险人应以保险金额与保险价值的比例作为确定保险人代位追偿权益的依据。     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

浅谈战国时秦国的后勤经济战略

秦国能统一中国,除了政治、军事方面的原因,还有一个被史学界忽略的因素：建立了完整的经济战略体系。这套体系包括后勤基地建设、经济改革以及交通路网络。这套体系为秦统一战争提供了巨大的后勤保障。     

非营利组织视角中的农村养老保险资金筹措与管理研究

文章通过对非营利组织介入我国农村养老保险资金筹措与管理的理论依据和必要性的分析，从非营利组织的视角出发，提出了如何建立健全我国农村养老保险资金筹措与管理机制的对策性建议。希望以此来推进我国社会主义新农村建设进程中的农村养老保险的改革与发展。     

‘I’m not really sure but I hope it’s better’: early thoughts of parents and carers in a regional trial site for the Australian National Disability Insurance Scheme

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is one of the most significant initiatives in Australian social policy history. Its complexity has been compounded by a fast-paced introduction and ongoing refinement throughout the initial trial phase. Parents and carers of very young disabled children face particular challenges accessing and navigating NDIS systems. This article presents findings from a mixed-method pilot study examining the perspectives of parents and carers of disabled children in one NDIS trial site – the Hunter Region of New South Wales. The research highlights a number of policy assumptions potentially impacting on NDIS take up for young disabled children and their families in regional contexts. Based on research findings a number of policy suggestions and improvements for disabled children and their families entering the NDIS and other individualised funding schemes are outlined.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

The price of risk with incomplete knowledge on the utility function*

When a risk is exchanged, the exact value for the minimum price (positive or negative) that the purchaser (investor, or insurer) is willing to pay is given by the certainty equivalent wealth level, which in turn depends on his specific utility function. When this utility function is unknown, then only a sufficient condition on the price can ever be found. This paper provides methods for calculating such a sufficient condition, when only limited information on the utility function is known.     

新型农村医疗保险中医方道德风险成因及对策分析

我国新型农村合作医疗保险从2003年开始推行,其采用第三方支付的方式,在解决农民因病返贫、致贫方面产生了积极的效果,但医方道德风险的普遍存在,对新型农村合作医疗保险存在很大的危害,本文通过对医方道德风险产生原因的分析,提出防范医方道德风险的对策。     

流动人口参加工伤保险影响因素的定量分析——以北京、绍兴、东莞为例

工伤保险是流动人口社会保障的重要组成部分,相关领域的定量实证研究相对缺乏。本文基于北京、绍兴和东莞三城市1516名就业流动人口的调查数据,对流动人口工伤保险参与情况及影响因素进行分析,以定量的方式确定不同因素对流动人口参加工伤保险的影响作用。结果发现,工作情况(工作角色、工作性质及工作稳定性)是影响流动人口参加工伤保险的最重要因素。从政府角度,应对现有政策进行调整,制定适用于流动人口工作生活特点的,以流动人口为参保主体的可携带易衔接的工伤保险制度,加大企业对流动人口用工规范性监管;从流动人口角度,应培养流动人口的权益意识,提高社会保险参保主动性。     

Gender differences in risk behaviour in financial decision-making: An experimental analysis

This paper examines whether gender differences in risk propensity and strategy in financial decision-making can be viewed as general traits, or whether they arise because of context factors. It presents the results of two computerised laboratory experiments designed to examine whether differences in risk preference and decision strategies are explained by the framing of tasks and level of task familiarity to subjects. The results show that females are less risk seeking than males irrespective of familiarity and framing, costs or ambiguity. The results also indicate that males and females adopt different strategies in financial decision environments but that these strategies have no significant impact on ability to perform. Because strategies are more easily observed than either risk preference or outcomes in day to day decisions, strategy differences may reinforce stereotypical beliefs that females are less able financial managers.