社会保险立法中的政府干预与法律原则

我国社会保险法已经进入正式的立法进程。文章在探讨我国现行社会保险立法存在的问题基础上,提出要进一步加强政府在社会保险立法中的干预作用,并对确立中国特色社会保险立法的法律原则作出了探讨。     

异质性大数据的分布式估计

随着物联网技术的进步,大数据给网络带宽和计算机存储能力带来巨大挑战,传统的集中式数据处理难以实现,客观上促进了分布式统计学习的发展。在无迭代算法研究中,Zhang等(2013)证明了当数据集个数s=O(N) 时,基于局部经验风险最小化的分治(DC)简单平均估计量具有O(N-1)均方误差收敛速度,Huang和Huo(2019)在M估计框架下进一步提出分布式一步估计量,但上述方法均未考虑海量数据可能存在的异质性对分治估计效果的影响。本文在线性模型框架下提出海量异质数据的分治一步加权估计,证明了估计量的渐近性质并考虑了异质性检验问题。将本文提出的方法应用于美国医疗保险实际数据分析,结果表明该方法能更好地拟合数据的线性趋势且显著提高了计算效率。     

论我国保险法上的保险利益观——以损失补偿保险为主

保险利益不能等同于物本身,同一物上可以同时存在多个保险利益,并据此成立多个保险关系而不构成重复保险。在损失补偿保险中,风险损失是保险利益的反面,保险事故发生时的损失者才是保险利益的真正主体,权利和利益的复杂关系决定了物权人不一定是保险利益的主体。因此,我们应放弃形式主义的保险利益观而坚持实质性的保险利益观,即以风险归属作为保险利益的归属依据。     

存款保险制度研究与中国的选择

为了维持银行业的稳定发展,许多国家建立了由存款保险制度、最后贷款人制度和审慎监管三大要素组成的金融安全网。目前我国已建立了最后贷款人制度,并专门成立了中国银监会来负责对银行业的监管,但存款保险制度至今仍处于酝酿阶段。为何中国进入存款保险制度需要如此漫长的经历呢?本文将试述存款保险制度的优缺点及我国为何迟迟才准备建立存款保险的原因。     

Rural Victorian service provider responses to the National Disability Insurance Scheme

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has transformed the nature of funding available to health and human service organisations to provide services to people with disability in Australia. However, there is relatively scant literature on the rural implementation of the NDIS, particularly how rural NDIS service providers are affected by the NDIS. Researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with 20 health professionals employed by rural providers, and analysed data using rural and remote health and organisational change frameworks to understand how rural providers were impacted by and responded to the NDIS. The findings suggest rural providers were impacted to differing extents and responded to the NDIS in different ways. Participants reported that disability and community health services were affected more than hospitals and private allied health practices. Impacted rural providers responded by changing the nature and types of services, service processes and their workforce, and redefining organisational characteristics. Impacted rural providers may require additional support to continue providing services, and those less impacted may require other incentives to better engage with the NDIS. Rural proofing of NDIS policy could reveal suitable supports and incentives to ensure rural people with disability can access required services.     

Flood Risk,Flood Mitigation,and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals’ adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program—the Community Rating System (CRS)—on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS‐creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two‐stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals’ risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS‐creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.     

现阶段农村养老保险制度能有效提高农民土地流转意愿吗?———来自江苏沭阳县30镇49村的初步证据

基于江苏省沭阳县的调查数据,对农民参加养老保险情况与其土地流转意愿之间的关系进行了实证分析并得出结论:现阶段参加新型农村社会养老保险或商业养老保险的农民比没有参加的农民土地流转意愿更高. Logistic计量检验显示,农民是否参加养老保险与土地流转意愿呈显著正相关关系.拐点分析进一步表明,若农民没有任何养老保险,人均年收入需要达到10万元才能突破土地流转意愿的质变点,对于现阶段普遍只参加新农保的农民,土地流转意愿离质变点仍然有一定差距,而既参加新农保又参加商业养老保险的农民,人均年均收入仅需1600元以上就能达到较高的土地流转意愿水平.     

Households’ precautionary behaviors—the effects of the introduction of National Health Insurance in Taiwan

By reducing risk of large out-of-pocket medical expenses, comprehensive social health insurance may reduce households’ motivation to engage in precautionary behaviors such as saving, procurement of private insurance, and spousal labor-force participation. We use the natural experiment provided by the 1995 introduction of National Health Insurance in Taiwan to examine these effects, using pre-existing differences in access to health insurance (tied to the household head’s and spouse’s joint employment status) to identify the effects of increasing insurance coverage. We find that comprehensive health insurance has a statistically significant and large effect on household savings, but no significant effects on purchase of private accident insurance and spousal employment.

我国保险投资组合的模拟和金融风险测量研究

 本文利用Copula函数的概念研究了保险投资组合多元金融数据的统计模拟。根据我国保险投资的特殊性，我们选用沪深300指数、基金指数、企债指数和国债指数四种风险资产来模拟保险投资组合中的股票、基金、企债和国债收益。基于模拟的结果分别利用传统近似方法（Add-VaR、N-VaR和H-VaR）和Copula方法计算了投资组合的总风险；相对于Copula-VaR方法，Add-VaR显著高估了风险，N-VaR显著低估了风险，H-VaR对于Copula-VaR的近似效果比较好，但其也高估了风险，即H-VaR相对于Copula-VaR是一种比较保守的方法。另外，我们分析了投资组合权重变化和Copula函数的选择对投资组合总风险的影响。     

Utilizing Third-Party Inspections for Preventing Major Chemical Accidents

This paper proposes using certified third parties, coupled with Model Risk Management Programs (Model RMPs), to implement EPA's Proposed Rule on the prevention of chemical accidental releases. We concentrate on the insurance aspects of this third-party approach and show that it could enable insurers to more cost-effectively provide coverage against the risks of chemical accidental releases. The third-party approach may also signal the facility's safety and reduce the enforcement costs of regulations.