Assumptions,conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development

Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles’ heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming.     

战后国民政府涉港事务处置个案研究——以张添祥事件为例

太平洋战争期间,国民政府争取香港主权的努力遭遇挫折,战后英国重返香港,中国在涉港事务中试图积极应对,争取国家利权。1946年12月3日,中国内地与香港边境的文锦渡发生一起英军越界开枪事件,造成宝安县居民张添祥死亡,即＂张添祥事件＂。事件发生后,广东地方当局和民意机构主张强硬外交,积极组织援助;国民政府外交当局亦介入善后,在民意舆论的压力下展开外交维权。最终,张添祥事件不了了之。     

Insecure times? Workers' perceived job and labor market security in 23 OECD countries

By examining the association between employees' perceptions of job security and central labor market policies and characteristics, this paper seeks to understand the mechanisms through which institutions generate confidence and positive expectations among individuals regarding their economic future. The analyses distinguish between different facets of perceived job security and different institutional mechanisms. My multilevel analyses of a data set that contains information on 12,431 individuals and 23 countries show that some labor market policies and characteristics are more likely than others to provide workers with subjective security. Unemployment assistance in particular is an effective means of reducing workers' worries about job loss. Dismissal protection, by contrast, only unleashes its psychologically protective effects under certain conditions. The paper's main conclusion is that the effectiveness of policies varies and that different types of labor market institutions serve as complements rather than as substitutes.     

Icons,Itinerary, and Identity: Associations of Boundary and Mobility within the Contemporary US Passport

Regulatory shifts in US border policy set in motion through implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative are concurrent with recent formal and functional changes to the US passport. This article examines these modifications interweaving themes of boundary, mobility, and identity. The study focuses on the tripartite means by which the state employs the passport: as the primary affixer of national identity; as a mediator of contact and mobility across national boundaries; and as a mode for the projection of a certain territorial discourse to its citizenry and ‘others.’ These concepts are developed through an analysis of the narrative and iconic representations contained within the new book itself; material sources from government archives; as well as discussions and interviews with US State Department functionaries closely associated with the design and distribution of the new e-passport. Through the latter examination, a view is afforded into the process by which key state documents are crafted and an inherent tension revealed within an agency charged with establishing a particular unifying ‘brand’ for the preeminent instrument of national identification, whilst dutifully acknowledging the diverse constituency of a nation that historically fashions itself as one constructed from the many. In conclusion, the study suggests that the new passport is the handiwork of a plethora of state actors and a servant of many masters, for it is not only a facilitator of mobility and a vouchsafe for the identity of the bearer, but also, a tiny but significant piece of US property, itself an agent of border maintenance and boundary construction that enables the state to lay claim to its citizenry.     

Towards a Society for All Ages

Summary

Any social action plan, scheme, or program for welfare or intervention can be formulated only on the basis of data generated by research findings. Empirical data forms the backbone of the formulation of policy. This paper outlines the summary of the Indian research effort in the area of aging. An examination of the research trends shows both strengths and weaknesses. The generation of large and varied pieces of data across disciplines is a strength, while the absence of methodological rigor, integration of research effort, and the building of theory are the lacunae. The needs of the elderly, elder-care issues, State vs. family care, elder abuse, interventional and action plan research are some areas that need accentuation. Documentation of data, creation of databases, and a national body for overseeing research are requirements that cannot be delayed any longer.     

中国价格水平的国际比较：差距及影响因素

基于世界银行2011年国际比较项目（ ICP）数据结果,分析中国价格水平的国际差距,研究其影响因素,剖析世界银行推算的中国购买力平价和价格水平指数的合理性和局限性。研究表明,中国价格总水平相对较低,但在多重因素作用下,呈大幅上升趋势,与国际的差距缩小,价格的国际竞争优势逐渐减弱。在现阶段,中国价格水平与经济发展水平大体相适应。从长期趋势看,中国价格水平继续上升的压力较大,须控制通胀预期,稳定人民币汇率,谨防价格水平上升超出经济发展水平的正常范围。     

汉语国际教育中的安徽文化传播 ——以安徽某大学为例

汉语国际教育是传播安徽文化的重要舞台.在汉语国际教育中要树立对外汉语教师地域性教学意识和地方文化意识,充分发挥对外汉语教学中安徽文化各传播途径的作用,结合语言教学多角度展示安徽文化,加强留学生体验安徽优秀传统文化的实践.     

Conditional VAR and Expected Shortfall: A New Functional Approach

We estimate two well-known risk measures, the value-at-risk (VAR) and the expected shortfall, conditionally to a functional variable (i.e., a random variable valued in some semi(pseudo)-metric space). We use nonparametric kernel estimation for constructing estimators of these quantities, under general dependence conditions. Theoretical properties are stated whereas practical aspects are illustrated on simulated data: nonlinear functional and GARCH(1,1) models. Some ideas on bandwidth selection using bootstrap are introduced. Finally, an empirical example is given through data of the S&P 500 time series.     

应用型本科院校国际化人才培养模式研究——以三明学院为例

国际通识教育课程项目是由教育部下属留学服务中心审批,在通识教育理念的基础上培养人才的国际化办学项目。三明学院作为应用型本科院校,以培养有特色应用技术型人才为目标,积极推进人才培养模式改革。结合三明学院的实际情况,从课程设置、教师资源、授课方式、教学质量保障体系和第二课堂等方面,对国际通识教育课程项目的国际化人才培养模式进行研究,希望能够为应用型本科院校创新人才培养模式提供经验。