美国视频通信市场的转型——付费视频内容转向互联网

本文概述了当前美国有线电视行业／付费视频行业的局势，以及一些重要问题和面临的挑战，展望了未来的视频市场，概述了一个未来视频／宽带市场的战略愿景，然后回归到政策建议及具体的立法和管制行动。这将帮助我们在最短的、可操作的时间内通向一个开放的、非歧视性的、无处不在的宽带网络。     

Adolescents,Online Marketing and Privacy: Predicting Adolescents’ Willingness to Disclose Personal Information for Marketing Purposes

The present study aims at exploring which factors predict the willingness of adolescents to disclose personal information in response to online marketing requests. Our analyses show that especially privacy concerns and perceived benefits explain a considerable portion of variance in both willingness to disclose profile data (e.g. age, hobbies, favourite products) and contact data (e.g. phone number, e‐mail address, home address). An interesting interrelationship was found between profile data and contact data disclosure. Contrary to our expectations, parental mediation strategies were only a weak predictor of teenagers’ willingness to disclose contact information. Policy implications that emerge from the central findings of this study are discussed.     

Improving TAIEX forecasting using fuzzy time series with Box–Cox power transformation

Box–Cox together with our newly proposed transformation were implemented in three different real world empirical problems to alleviate noisy and the volatility effect of them. Consequently, a new domain was constructed. Subsequently, universe of discourse for transformed data was established and an approach for calculating effective length of the intervals was then proposed. Considering the steps above, the initial forecasts were performed using frequently used fuzzy time series (FTS) methods on transformed data. Final forecasts were retrieved from initial forecasted values by proper inverse operation. Comparisons of the results demonstrate that the proposed method produced more accurate forecasts compared with existing FTS on original data.     

A generalization of the compound rayleigh distribution: using a bayesian method on cancer survival times

In this paper the generalized compound Rayleigh model, exhibiting flexible hazard rate, is high¬lighted. This makes it attractive for modelling survival times of patients showing characteristics of a random hazard rate. The Bayes estimators are derived for the parameters of this model and some survival time parameters from a right censored sample. This is done with respect to conjugate and discrete priors on the parameters of this model, under the squared error loss function, Varian's asymmetric linear-exponential (linex) loss function and a weighted linex loss function. The future survival time of a patient is estimated under these loss functions. A Monte Carlo simu¬lation procedure is used where closed form expressions of the estimators cannot be obtained. An example illustrates the proposed estimators for this model.     

GENERALIZED SIGNED-RANK ESTIMATORS FOR AUTOREGRESSION PARAMETERS

ABSTRACT

A new class of weighted signed-rank-based estimates for estimating the parameter vector of an autoregressive time series is considered. The Wilcoxon signed-rank estimate and the GR-estimates of Terpstra et al. (GR-Estimates for an Autoregressive Time Series. Statistics and Probability Letters 2001, 51, 165–172; Generalized Rank Estimates for an Autoregressive Time Series: A U-Statistic Approach. Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes 2001, 4, 155–179) can be viewed as special cases of the so-called GSR-estimates. Asymptotic linearity properties are derived for the GSR-estimates. Based on these properties, and a symmetry assumption, the GSR-estimates are shown to be asymptotically normal at rate n ^1/2. The theory of U-Statistics along with a characterization of weak dependence that is inherent in stationary AR(p) models are the primary tools used to obtain the results. Tests of hypotheses as well as standard errors for confidence interval procedures can be based on such results. An efficiency study indicates that, for an appropriately chosen set of weights, the GSR-estimate is more efficient than the GR-estimate. Furthermore, the GSR-estimate has an added advantage in that an intercept term can be estimated simultaneously; unlike the GR-estimate. Two examples and a small simulation study are used to illustrate the computational and robust aspects of the GSR-estimates.     

A diagnostic statistic for functional-coefficient autoregressive models

In this paper, functional coefficient autoregressive (FAR) models proposed by Chen and Tsay (1993) are considered. We propose a diagnostic statistic for FAR models constructed by comparing between parametric and nonparametric estimators of the functional form of the FAR models. We show asymptotic properties of our statistic mathematically and it can be applied to the estimation of the delay parameter and the specification of the functional form of FAR models.     

母语在藏族大学生识记中的作用

通过对藏族大学生在识记不同语言材料时表现出不同效果的分析,从信息加工的角度阐述了母语是识记的基础,是识记表象建立的关键,母语所反映的认知取向决定了识记的侧重点。     

再谈西平亭与西平郡城

该文对西汉元鼎年间所设的西平亭的性质、设立时间、位置及其与东汉建安年间所设的西平郡的位置和相关方位做了简要考证,针对不同意见,提出了西平亭与西平郡在方位上有凭依关系,位置在西宁明清城恒之内的学术观点。     

花儿会:二元结构下的特定时空--试作花儿会上回族群众的角色转换的分析

回族群众在花儿会上,不同于日常世俗生活的表现说明,花儿会是回族社会生活中二元结构下的特定时空。在这个特定时空里,回族群众完成了角色转换,以弥合现实生活和精神心理上的矛盾。     

Female Labor Supply,Human Capital,and Welfare Reform

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.