Self-perception of Gambling Problems among Adolescents Identified as At-risk or Problem Gamblers

The relative influence of perceived familial addictive behaviors and personal gambling behaviors on adolescents' self-perceptions of gambling problems was examined. Students from five high schools in Connecticut (N = 3,886) were surveyed. Of those between the ages of 14 and 17 who scored two or more on the South Oaks Gambling Screen--Revised for Adolescents (n = 532; 72% male; 43% Caucasian), 14.3% reported having a current or past problem with gambling. Wagering larger amounts in a single day, gambling on a daily basis, and perceived presence of a family member with a gambling problem were associated with increased odds of self-perception of a gambling problem. Thus, adolescents who may be less likely to be identified for prevention efforts (due to lack of engagement in high stakes gambling or the real/perceived absence of a problematic gambler in the home) appear less likely to perceive a gambling problem. To advance prevention and treatment strategies, the apparent discrepancy between adolescents' self-perceptions and objective reports of problem gambling behaviors warrants further investigation.     

关于广西社会主义新农村建设的几个问题及其对策

广西是我国经济社会发展相对滞后的地区之一,也是我国社会主义新农村建设任务更为艰巨的地区之一。由于多方面的原因,广西的社会发展相对滞后,进一步提高农村生产劳动力、创造力和可持续发展能力问题,是建设社会主义新农村必须面对的一个重要课题。为了更快更好地建设我区的社会主义新农村,使我区农村生产更加发展、农民生活更加富裕,乡风更加文明,村容更加整洁,管理更加民主,我们必须对我区的农业产业化问题、农民专业合作经济组织问题、新型农民培养造就问题等进行研究和探讨。     

The Impact of a Structured-Argument Approach on Group Problem Formulation*

Despite advances in decision analysis and decision support systems, few formulaic procedures exist for undertaking problem formulation, particularly in group settings. This leaves managers with little procedural support for the important task of carefully structuring problems. In a laboratory experiment of 29 intact student teams, we contrasted two problem formulation methodologies: a structured argument approach (based on application of formal reasoning) and a group process approach (based on private idea generation prior to public sharing and evaluation of ideas). The structured argument approach took more time to use and failed to bring about more information search and equivocality reduction in group discussions. On the positive side, however, the structured argument approach led to a greater combination of both coverage of critical issues and consensus on those issues. Use of the structured argument approach also resulted in higher satisfaction with the problem definition and commitment to implementing results of the group meeting. Overall, the results reveal cost/benefit tradeoffs associated with developing argumentation-based procedures for problem formulation.     

浅析高校大学生兼职现象

随着我国高等教育的进一步深入,特别是高校扩招政策的实施,大学生就业形势日益严峻。当前各大高校都出现了一个类似的现象,大批刚刚进入校门的学子第一件事就是找一份好的兼职工作,他们以各种不同形式的兼职来磨练自己的意志力和勇气。在锻炼自己的同时,又很好地为家庭分忧解难。     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

Shrinkage inverse regression estimation for model-free variable selection

Summary.  The family of inverse regression estimators that was recently proposed by Cook and Ni has proven effective in dimension reduction by transforming the high dimensional predictor vector to its low dimensional projections. We propose a general shrinkage estimation strategy for the entire inverse regression estimation family that is capable of simultaneous dimension reduction and variable selection. We demonstrate that the new estimators achieve consistency in variable selection without requiring any traditional model, meanwhile retaining the root n estimation consistency of the dimension reduction basis. We also show the effectiveness of the new estimators through both simulation and real data analysis.     

On distribution-weighted partial least squares with diverging number of highly correlated predictors

Summary.  Because highly correlated data arise from many scientific fields, we investigate parameter estimation in a semiparametric regression model with diverging number of predictors that are highly correlated. For this, we first develop a distribution-weighted least squares estimator that can recover directions in the central subspace, then use the distribution-weighted least squares estimator as a seed vector and project it onto a Krylov space by partial least squares to avoid computing the inverse of the covariance of predictors. Thus, distrbution-weighted partial least squares can handle the cases with high dimensional and highly correlated predictors. Furthermore, we also suggest an iterative algorithm for obtaining a better initial value before implementing partial least squares. For theoretical investigation, we obtain strong consistency and asymptotic normality when the dimension p of predictors is of convergence rate O { n ^1/2/ log ( n )} and o ( n ^1/3) respectively where n is the sample size. When there are no other constraints on the covariance of predictors, the rates n ^1/2 and n ^1/3 are optimal. We also propose a Bayesian information criterion type of criterion to estimate the dimension of the Krylov space in the partial least squares procedure. Illustrative examples with a real data set and comprehensive simulations demonstrate that the method is robust to non-ellipticity and works well even in 'small n –large p ' problems.     

Analysis of quality-of-life adjusted failure time data in the presence of competing, possibly informative, censoring mechanisms

We derive estimators of the mean of a function of a quality-of-life adjusted failure time, in the presence of competing right censoring mechanisms. Our approach allows for the possibility that some or all of the competing censoring mechanisms are associated with the endpoint, even after adjustment for recorded prognostic factors, with the degree of residual association possibly different for distinct censoring processes. Our methods generalize from a single to many censoring processes and from ignorable to non-ignorable censoring processes.     

Statistical inference for α-series process with the inverse Gaussian distribution

Statistical inferences for the geometric process (GP) are derived when the distribution of the first occurrence time is assumed to be inverse Gaussian (IG). An α-series process, as a possible alternative to the GP, is introduced since the GP is sometimes inappropriate to apply some reliability and scheduling problems. In this study, statistical inference problem for the α-series process is considered where the distribution of first occurrence time is IG. The estimators of the parameters α, μ, and σ² are obtained by using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Asymptotic distributions and consistency properties of the ML estimators are derived. In order to compare the efficiencies of the ML estimators with the widely used nonparametric modified moment (MM) estimators, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. The results showed that the ML estimators are more efficient than the MM estimators. Moreover, two real life datasets are given for application purposes.     

私营经济发展问题研究

私营经济发展中存在的问题有：缺乏总体规划,缺乏科学管理,一些私营企业产权不清,雇员和私营企业主的关系有待调整,管理制度不健全,个别私营企业主的生活方式已产生不良社会效应等。加快我国私营经济健康发展需采取如下对策：正确认识和处理发展私营经济发展的各种关系,制定和完善有利于发展私营经济的政策,实行产权明晰和重组,加强政府对私营企业的管理,协调雇工与业主之间的关系,不断提高私营企业主的思想素质。