战后鲁尔问题与西欧早期一体化

鲁尔问题的解决对欧洲保持持久和平与繁荣有着重要的意义。在”舒曼计划”出台之前，法国曾提出过一系列解决鲁尔问题的方案，但却无一成功。鲁尔问题最终是通过欧洲煤钢共同体才得到较为完满的解决的，它对西欧早期一体化起到了巨大的推动作用。     

高校内部控制存在的问题与对策

随着高等教育改革的不断深入,高校的经济活动日趋多样化、复杂化,高校对内部控制有了新的认识和需求,建立和完善内部控制制度,加强内部控制管理,确保高等教育事业快速健康的发展。文章分析了我国高校内部控制中存在的问题及其成因,并提出了加强高校内部控制管理的几点具体措施,从而更好地提高高校管理水平。     

Newsvendor Problems with Demand Shocks and Unknown Demand Distributions

In today's competitive market, demand volume and even the underlying demand distribution can change quickly for a newsvendor seller. We refer to sudden changes in demand distribution as demand shocks. When a newsvendor seller has limited demand distribution information and also experiences underlying demand shocks, the majority of existing methods for newsvendor problems may not work well since they either require demand distribution information or assume stationary demand distribution. We present a new, robust, and effective machine learning algorithm for newsvendor problems with demand shocks but without any demand distribution information. The algorithm needs only an approximate estimate of the lower and upper bounds of demand range; no other knowledge such as demand mean, variance, or distribution type is necessary. We establish the theoretical bounds that determine this machine learning algorithm's performance in handling demand shocks. Computational experiments show that this algorithm outperforms the traditional approaches in a variety of situations including large and frequent shocks of the demand mean. The method can also be used as a meta‐algorithm by incorporating other traditional approaches as experts. Working together, the original algorithm and the extended meta‐algorithm can help manufacturers and retailers better adapt their production and inventory control decisions in dynamic environments where demand information is limited and demand shocks are frequent      

来华犹太人的国籍和法律问题(1840-1945)

1840年后,来华的犹太人主要有三大群体:第一是从中东、南亚和东南亚来华经商办实业的塞法迪犹太人;第二是为逃避反犹恶浪、革命和内战来华谋生的俄国犹太人;第三是从纳粹统治下的欧洲亡命来华的犹太难民。对这三大犹太移民群体来华概况及其法律地位,特别是国籍问题进行比较研究,是在来华犹太人研究方面的深化和新领域。     

黑龙江省普通高校休闲体育的现状与问题研究

对黑龙江省8所普通高校学生休闲体育的参与动机调查发现:学生参与积极性不高,参与形式较为单一,现有的体育场馆、设施无法满足学生参与休闲体育活动的需求,缺乏专业指导员,既影响了大学生参与休闲体育的积极性,也不能保证其活动质量。因此,加强校园体育文化的建设的同时更应该重视对大学生休闲体育教育,加大学校体育场馆建设力度,最大限度地提高现有场馆的利用率,逐步加大对休闲体育教育方面经费的投入,通过引进和培训较为专业的指导老师,最大限度地满足学生在休闲体育方面的诉求。     

试论我国社会中介组织存在的问题及发展思路

改革开放以来,我国社会中介组织有了飞速的发展,但是,目前我国社会中介组织还不够完善,不够成熟,牵制着政府改革。本文从我国社会中介组织在发展中存在的问题出发探讨发展我国社会中介组织的思路,完善中介组织发展的制度。     

A multiple model discrimination procedure

The case of selecting between a set of fixed models is considered. The true model is assumed to be contained in the set of proposed models and errors are taken to be normally distributed. A sequential procedure which yeilds probabilities of incorrect selections is proposed. The procedure is shown to have optimal properties and is extended to the estimated model case by a bootstrap procedure.     

Time-based goal chasing method for mixed-model assembly line problem with multiple work stations

In sequencing problems for mixed-model assembly line in JIT production system, the Goal Chasing method (GC) is widely used for parts used leveling goal. The difference in assembly time of each product is not taken into consideration in the Goal Chasing method. Assembly time usually varies with product types. In recent years, the Time-Based Goal Chasing method (TBGC) has been proposed. The advantage of TBGC is to consider the influence of different assembly time of each product and idle time in production period. TBGC, however, has been only applied to single work station problems. In this paper, TBGC is applied to an assembly line problem with multiple work stations. Furthermore, the sequencing method and use of Simulated Annealing (SA) or Local Search (LS) for this problem are proposed.     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.