农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

The Other Le Grand? Evaluating the 'Other Invisible Hand' in Welfare Services in England

Competition and choice have become central means of improving public services in England. The former adviser to the Blair government Julian Le Grand has suggested that increased choice and competition should be the cornerstone of policy that aims to deliver more responsive and fairer results for the public. This article explores Le Grand's claims, deploying the conditions earlier suggested by him to examine the conditions which 'quasi-markets will have to meet if they are to succeed as instruments of social policy'. Claims about the efficacy of choice and competition policies in 2007 are assessed against the earlier conditions of market structure, information, transaction costs, uncertainty, motivation and cream-skimming, to examine the extent to which the reforms Le Grand has most recently proposed meet the conditions he earlier suggested would be necessary for markets to work in the public sector.     

经济新常态下合作创新模式探究

我国经济已进入新常态,合作创新作为重要的技术创新战略纳入国家创新体系。从新常态的显著特征、国际经济形势、国家创新战略、科技快速发展等方面分析了合作创新面临的新环境,从合作创新的动力和目的的角度,将合作创新模式分为有明确的创新目标、有清晰的创新方向、立足战略领域和行业发展等三个层次进行剖析,并对经济新常态下合作创新模式的选择提出了思路。     

固定效应模型对知情选择政策影响的再验证——以已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的变化为例

利用固定效应模型对1988-2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查数据进行了再次分析,以量化考察知情选择政策对中国已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的影响。研究发现,知情选择与已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的变化之间呈现一定的因果关联。知情选择导致了育龄个体避孕措施选择的改变,表现为短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性随着知情选择的开展在逐步升高,而长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低。     

Trapped in Poor Places? An Assessment of the Residential Spatial Patterns of Housing Choice Voucher Holders in 2004 and 2008

ABSTRACT

This study examines the residential spatial patterns of Housing Choice Voucher holders in Western New York in 2004 and 2008 (n = 4,600 and n = 4,759, respectively). It seeks to answer two questions: Has the concentration of voucher holders in impoverished and same race neighborhoods diminished overtime; and are voucher holders, particularly African Americans, relocating in patterns that would lead to reghettoization or the reconcentration of race and poverty? This type of residential pattern puts voucher holders at risk for resettling in neighborhoods that limit economic and social mobility. Data from the public housing agency contracted to distribute Housing Choice Vouchers were examined. Exploratory spatial analysis techniques were used to identify spatial outliers and to form a hypothesis on spatial patterns of relocation. Spatial clustering analyses were conducted to test the hypothesis on the reghettoization of African American voucher holders in recently relocated neighborhoods. Analyses indicate that African American voucher holders are moving out of impoverished, hypersegregated areas into historically White neighborhoods. A limited number of voucher holders are moving in clustered patterns, which lead to reghettoization. Future research is needed that highlights the role that housing assistance providers play in the residential location choices of low-income clients.     

A Historical,Interdisciplinary Analysis of the Animal and Human Social Ecosystem

No abstract available for this article.     

Using large classes to positive advantage: Involving students as research subjects and active learners

The large lecture format, with all its disadvantages, is becoming increasingly prevalent in undergraduate social work education in many countries. In some cases it can present opportunities other teaching formats cannot. One such opportunity is the implementation of surveys exploring students' own experiences and background with regard to key course content. This can help students 'connect' more easily with the concepts and theories presented in the lecture. An example of this method, including context and selected findings, is presented here with regard to a course on the Psychosocial Aspects of Disability and Illness.     

On the Use of Buy Up as a Model of Customer Choice in Revenue Management

We consider settings in which a revenue manager controls bookings over a sequence of flights. The revenue manager uses a buy‐up model to select booking limits and updates estimates of the model parameters as data are accumulated. The buy‐up model we consider is based upon a simple model of customer choice, wherein each low‐fare customer who is not able to purchase a low‐fare ticket will, with a fixed probability, “buy up” to the high fare, independent of everything else. We analyze the evolution of the parameter estimates (e.g., the buy‐up probability) and chosen booking limits in situations where the buy‐up model is misspecified, that is, in situations where there is no setting of its parameters for which its objective function gives an accurate representation of expected revenue as a function of the booking limit. The analysis is motivated by the common situation in which a revenue manager does not know precisely how customers behave but nevertheless uses a parametric model to make decisions. Under some assumptions, we prove that the booking limits and parameter estimates converge and we compare the actual expected revenue at the limiting values with that associated with the booking limits that would be chosen if the revenue manager knew the actual behavior of customers. The analysis shows that the buy‐up model often works reasonably well even when it is misspecified, and also reveals the importance of understanding how parameter estimates of misspecified models vary as functions of decisions.     

农村“宗教热”原因探究：宗教社会风险假说

基于宗教理性选择理论,提出宗教风险假说,认为风险以及风险应对能力是人们做出宗教选择的一个重要因素。从市场经济、贫困和弱势群体等角度,根据作者调查数据、国家统计数据以及其他全国和局部调查数据,对上述假设进行了检验。结果表明:(1)市场经济中的宗教需求要高于计划经济;(2)市场经济越发达的地区,信教密度就越高;(3)弱势群体的宗教需求要高于强势群体。这些结果证明了宗教风险假说的合理性。最后依据该假说,提出针对当前农村"宗教热"政策建议主要有两点:(1)降低农村人口所面临的风险;(2)提高其应对风险的能力。