苏浙边界的水利纠纷与政府运作——以20世纪50-60年代吴江县联圩引起的省际纠纷为例

20世纪50-60年代,江苏省吴江县在农田水利建设过程中进行的联圩并圩,虽取得一定的成效,但因当地水系结构的改变致使浙江来水下泄不畅,洪涝威胁加重,同时杭嘉湖地区的农业生产也遭受严重影响,从而引起苏浙边界的水利矛盾和纠纷。为解决纠纷,苏浙两省行政部门进行了积极的努力,展开充分的调研与协商,最终使纠纷得以化解,这从一个侧面体现了政府运作在解决水利纠纷中的重要作用。然而水利纠纷的产生及解决过程也给我们留下深刻的经验与教训。     

Lectures,murder, and a phony terrorist: managing “Jewish power and danger” in 1960s communist Czechoslovakia

The Slánský Affair of 1952 introduced a specific matrix of ideas about Jewish power and the danger that Jews posed to the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic. These ideas, with roots in earlier discourses, conditioned Jewish–state relations for decades, providing party-state officials and even Jewish functionaries with a language for articulating demands of the government and a framework for understanding the place of Jewish citizens in the socialist nation. Inter- and intra-ministerial conflicts reveal that differences in purview and philosophy often led officials to prioritise different aspects of the Jewish power–danger matrix. The paternalistic responsibility to protect domestic Jewry from the negative influences of foreign “Zionists” frequently clashed with the objective of appeasing Western Jewry, whose influence in the US Czechoslovak communists overestimated. While the latter consideration – and others – often moved the Ministry of Culture to advocate in favour of the Czechoslovak Jewish communities, the former concern – taken remarkably seriously – led the secret police to oppose them at every turn, often in the most conspiratorial of ways. To that end, this article introduces new information and perspective on the murder of Charles Jordan in 1967 and its repercussions and political uses in the years that followed.     

“Every Jew is a Zionist,and every Zionist is a spy!” The story of Jewish social assistance networks in Communist Czechoslovakia

This article explores some of the major operations of the Czechoslovak secret police (State Security Forces, StB) against individuals involved in organising Jewish social assistance networks during the 1950s, as documented by fragments of case files preserved in the Security Services Archive in Prague. While there is much focus on victims of the Prague show trial of the so-called “Conspiracy Centre,” all of whom were members of the top echelons of the Communist Party, the individuals who tried to revive Jewish life and secure the well-being of the needy in a country swept by anti-Jewish sentiment raked up by that trial remain largely unknown. In this work, we learn who these people were and what they did, and how the Communist regime punished them for their involvement. As an original contribution, the article details the search for safe methods of delivering humanitarian aid to Czechoslovak Holocaust survivors after the expulsion of the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC) in 1950, from the initial attempts to use Israeli channels to the gradual legalisation of JDC aid under Swiss cover organisations.     

对向犯基本问题研究

对向犯是构成要件预定必须由复数人在对立的意思支配下实施对向性行为才能完成的犯罪。对向犯是单独犯罪而非共同犯罪,双方不构成共同实行犯,不适用主从犯的规定。对于法律没有规定应予处罚的一方,不能以对方犯罪的教唆犯或帮助犯处罚。实践中还应注意对向犯理论的适用范围。     

A new absolute continuous bivariate generalized exponential distribution

The generalized exponential is the most commonly used distribution for analyzing lifetime data. This distribution has several desirable properties and it can be used quite effectively to analyse several skewed life time data. The main aim of this paper is to introduce absolutely continuous bivariate generalized exponential distribution using the method of Block and Basu (1974). In fact, the Block and Basu exponential distribution will be extended to the generalized exponential distribution. We call the new proposed model as the Block and Basu bivariate generalized exponential distribution, then, discuss its different properties. In this case the joint probability distribution function and the joint cumulative distribution function can be expressed in compact forms. The model has four unknown parameters and the maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in explicit form. To compute the maximum likelihood estimators directly, one needs to solve a four dimensional optimization problem. The EM algorithm has been proposed to compute the maximum likelihood estimations of the unknown parameters. One data analysis is provided for illustrative purposes. Finally, we propose some generalizations of the proposed model and compare their models with each other.     

A game-theoretic model for co-promotions: Choosing a complementary versus an independent product ally

This paper studies the optimal choice of promotional partners in a three-firm market where two firms sell complementary products and a third firm sells an independent product. Game-theoretic models are developed to investigate the following scenarios: no promotional partnership, partnership between the two complementary products, partnership between a complementary product and the independent product, and partnership between the three products. Equilibrium Nash solutions are obtained and conditions under which each of the four scenarios above can be implemented are identified. Results show that these conditions depend on various parameters, mainly the degree of product complementarity, the effectiveness of individual promotion, the effectiveness of joint promotion, and the base demand for each product. Commonly, a partnership between a complementary product and the independent product is optimal when the price effect of the complementary product is large, while the partnership between the two complementary products is more appealing when the effect of individual promotion is large enough. When feasible, a promotional partnership between the three products is preferred, except in some specified conditions.     

Joint Integrated Importance Measure for Multi-State Transition Systems

Joint reliability importance (JRI) evaluates the interaction of two components in contributing to the system reliability in a system. Traditional JRI measures mainly concern the change of the system reliability caused by the interactive change of the reliabilities of the two components and seldom consider the probability distributions, transition rates of the object component states, and system performance. This article extends the JRI concept of two components from multi-state systems to multi-state transition systems and mainly focuses on the joint integrated importance measure (JIIM) which considers the transition rates of component states. Firstly, the concept and physical meaning of JIIM in binary systems are described. Secondly, the JIIM for deterioration process (JIIMDP) and the JIIM for maintenance process (JIIMMP) in multi-state systems are studied respectively. The corresponding characteristics of JIIMDP and JIIMMP for series and parallel systems are also analyzed. Finally, an application to an offshore electrical power generation system is given to demonstrate the proposed JIIM.     

Relative Price Changes and Inequality in the Size Distribution of Various Components of Income

This article uses a comprehensive model of economic inequality to examine the impact of relative price changes on inequality in the marginal distributions of various income components in which the marginal distributions are derived from a multidimensional joint distribution. The multidimensional joint distribution function is assumed to be a member of the Pearson Type VI family; that is, it is assumed to be a beta distribution of the second kind. The multidimensional joint distribution is so called because it is a joint distribution of components of income and expenditures on various commodity groups. Gini measures of inequality are devised from the marginal distributions of the various income components. The inequality measures are shown to depend on the parameters of the multidimensional joint distribution. It is then shown that the parameters of the multidimensional joint distribution depend on the relative prices of various commodity groups and several other specified exogenous variables. Thus, knowledge of how changes in relative prices affect the parameters of the multidimensional joint distribution is deductively equivalent to knowledge of how changes in relative prices affect inequality in the marginal distributions of various components of income. It is found that relative price changes have a statistically significant impact on inequality in various components of income.     

Mixed Correlated Bivariate Ordinal and Negative Binomial Longitudinal Responses with Nonignorable Missing Values

Regression models with random effects are proposed for joint analysis of negative binomial and ordinal longitudinal data with nonignorable missing values under fully parametric framework. The presented model simultaneously considers a multivariate probit regression model for the missing mechanisms, which provides the ability of examining the missing data assumptions and a multivariate mixed model for the responses. Random effects are used to take into account the correlation between longitudinal responses of the same individual. A full likelihood-based approach that allows yielding maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters is used. The model is applied to a medical data, obtained from an observational study on women, where the correlated responses are the ordinal response of osteoporosis of the spine and negative binomial response is the number of joint damage. A sensitivity of the results to the assumptions is also investigated. The effect of some covariates on all responses are investigated simultaneously.     

Statistics for Extreme Sea Currents

Estimates of various characteristics of extreme sea currents, such as speeds and their directions, are required when designing offshore structures. This paper extends standard statistical methods for extreme values to handle the directionality, temporal dependence and tidal non-stationarity that are present in sea current extremes. The methods are applied to a short period of data from the Inner Dowsing Light Tower in the North Sea. Substantial benefits, over existing methods, are obtained from our analysis of the sea current by decomposing it into tide and surge currents. In particular, we find that at the Inner Dowsing the strong directionality in extreme sea current speeds is completely explained by the tidal current and directionality in the non-extreme surge currents. This finding aids model fitting and extrapolation.