Rendite und Kapitalkosten

Zusammenfassung  Zur Bewertung von Investitionsprojekten mit mehrperiodigen Zahlungen werden die erwarteten Zahlungen mit geeigneten Kapitalkosten diskontiert. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass die erwarteten einperiodigen Renditen nur unter bestimmten Annahmen die geeigneten Kapitalkosten darstellen. Wenn zwischen den einperiodigen Renditen Autokorrelation auftritt, ist ein zus?tzlicher Korrekturterm bei der Ermittlung der Kapitalkosten zu berücksichtigen. Im Falle unkorrelierter Renditen entspricht der stochastische Prozess der Renditen dem Prozess der Risikoaufl?sung.

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Summary  In this paper it is argued that the discount rates used for the computation of the present values of an investment project with cash-flows to be realized over several years have to be adjusted when the one-period returns of the investment project are autocorrelated. The formula of the correct discount rate is deduced. In the case of uncorrelated returns of the investment, the stochastic process of the returns and of the cost of capital are closely related to the process of the arrival of information over time.

Ich danke zwei anonymen Gutachtern für wertvolle Verbesserungsvorschl?ge an einer früheren Version des Aufsatzes sowie dem Verein zur F?rderung der Zusammenarbeit zwischen Lehre und Praxis am Finanzplatz Hannover e.V. für seine Unterstützung.     

Profit efficiency analysis under limited information with an application to German farm types

Lack of information about technology and prices often hampers the empirical assessment of the profit maximization hypothesis (viz. by measuring the degree of profit efficiency). The non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology can deal with such incomplete information. We exploit the implicit but largely neglected profit interpretation of the DEA model that builds on assumptions of monotone and convex production possibility sets. We show how its embedded assessment of necessary conditions for profit maximization can be strengthened given partial information in the form of monetary sub-cost/-revenue data (that are often easier obtained than the pure quantity data). Finally, we argue that a ‘mix’ efficiency analysis is naturally complementary to such a profit efficiency analysis. An application to German farm types complements our methodological discussion. By using non-parametric statistical tests, we further demonstrate the potential of the non-parametric approach in deriving strong and robust statistical evidence while imposing minimal structure on the setting under study. In particular, we look for significant efficiency variation over regions.     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of joint mean‐covariance models

The class of joint mean‐covariance models uses the modified Cholesky decomposition of the within subject covariance matrix in order to arrive to an unconstrained, statistically meaningful reparameterisation. The new parameterisation of the covariance matrix has two sets of parameters that separately describe the variances and correlations. Thus, with the mean or regression parameters, these models have three sets of distinct parameters. In order to alleviate the problem of inefficient estimation and downward bias in the variance estimates, inherent in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the usual REML estimation procedure adjusts for the degrees of freedom lost due to the estimation of the mean parameters. Because of the parameterisation of the joint mean covariance models, it is possible to adapt the usual REML procedure in order to estimate the variance (correlation) parameters by taking into account the degrees of freedom lost by the estimation of both the mean and correlation (variance) parameters. To this end, here we propose adjustments to the estimation procedures based on the modified and adjusted profile likelihoods. The methods are illustrated by an application to a real data set and simulation studies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 225–242; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Generalized quasi-likelihood

The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations. The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results. This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University.     

动物反谚语中的隐喻认知解读

谚语是语言的重要组成部分,蕴涵着丰富的文化内涵。本文首先介绍了动物反谚语的构成规律,然后介绍了动物反谚语的隐喻功能,最后,通过对其中两条反谚语的隐喻认知分析,得出以下结论：读者对反谚语的解读取决于文本信息、读者自身的知识结构以及相关的社会阅历和日常生活知识等诸因素。旨在帮助英语学习者熟悉这种有趣的语言现象,进而了解这种现象所反映的社会现实。     

法院调解的存在逻辑与功能分析——以陕西省某市A区法院为实证考察

从清代和陕甘宁边区两种不同的案件案件调解模式来看,其背后成因是司法环境的改变。当代中国的司法环境为面子社会里的人情往来、差序格局下的私人道德、社会失范后的信仰缺失、权力体系内的司法弱小和乡土中国中的法律真空,这使得法院调解在现阶段依然有其存在的合理性与必然性。结合对陕西省某市A区法院的实证研究,借鉴棚濑孝雄的过程分析,可以发现法院调解在解决观念型、心理型、"熟人社会"型、矛盾激化型纠纷以及弥补司法能力不足方面,相比于正式审判制度有着独特的价值和功能。但是法院调解实践中出现的各种弊端也有待进一步规范。     

浅析朱熹《大学章句》

朱熹的《大学章句》将大学之道落实为"明明德"的内修外推过程,以"明明德"为根本,贯穿三纲领的始终。八条目与三纲领相对应,明明德也就是修身的内在表现。在实现止于至善的过程中,要按照八条目的近道顺序进行,即达到"明明德于天下"需要按照格物、致知、诚意、正心、修身、齐家、治国、平天下的顺序。     

论规范化量刑

规范化量刑是对量刑这种司法活动或制度的一种改革,是指使得量刑合乎约定俗成或法律明文规定的标准。规范化量刑不仅要求量刑公正而且要求其具有透明性,这就要求增加控辩双方关于量刑的话语权和将量刑工作纳入法庭审判;做到规范化量刑首先要遵循规范化量刑的必要原则,坚持量刑程序公开、检察监督、罪责相称的原则,其次要采取一些科学合理的量刑方法。只有做到规范化量刑才能坚持科学的量刑观,才能保证刑罚权的正确行使,才能树立司法的公信力和权威性,才能实现社会和谐。     

我国重大刑事冤案成因分析及应对策略——以公安司法机关的绩效考核机制为视角

近些年来,我国刑事司法领域发生了许多重大刑事冤案,危害极大,比较典型的如赵作海杀人冤案、佘祥林杀妻冤案等.刑事冤案的发生原因错综复杂,现行公安司法机关的绩效考核机制便是其中之一.文章以应对重大刑事冤案的发生为出发点,我国公安司法机关的绩效考核机制存在着一些不足,需要加以优化.只有建立了良好的法治观念与法治环境,构建完善的法律制度,才能从根本上遏制赵作海杀人冤案这样的人间悲剧再次发生.     

司法鉴定质证程序问题研究

由于历史和现实的诸多因素,我国在司法鉴定质证程序方面的法规还远未达到规范化、法制化的要求,还存在着缺乏审前程序、对鉴定人出庭作证没有强制要求、对鉴定结论的质证流于形式等问题,可以说目前司法鉴定领域出现的众多问题及争议,与此有着直接的因果关系。因此,建立一套统一的、科学合理的司法鉴定质证程序规则势在必行。