影视文化与和谐文化的构建

和谐文化是构建社会主义和谐社会建设的精神支柱和道德保障,影视文化则在促进和谐文化的形成、推动和谐文化的发展、确保和谐文化的传播中发挥着极为重要的作用.面对当前全球金融危机,影视文化可以潜移默化地增强受众战胜困难的勇气和信心,用暖心来暖经济.     

Model comparison of linear and nonlinear Bayesian structural equation models with dichotomous data

In this article, dichotomous variables are used to compare between linear and nonlinear Bayesian structural equation models. Gibbs sampling method is applied for estimation and model comparison. Statistical inferences that involve estimation of parameters and their standard deviations and residuals analysis for testing the selected model are discussed. Hidden continuous normal distribution (censored normal distribution) is used to solve the problem of dichotomous variables. The proposed procedure is illustrated by a simulation data obtained from R program. Analyses are done by using R2WinBUGS package in R-program.     

Varieties of political support in emerging democracies: A cross-national analysis

Political support is a multidimensional construct encompassing evaluations of political leaders and institutions (specific support) as well as adherence to basic regime principles (diffuse support). Scholars have traditionally assumed that diffuse and specific support are driven by different forces and evolve largely independently. Prior empirical work, however, has struggled to untangle the two support dimensions and focused predominantly on cross-national differences, ignoring their dynamics. This paper develops an analytical and empirical approach to examine the levels and dynamic interplay of both support dimensions and estimate their determinants, applying it to South American democracies between 1996 and 2015. Contrary to received wisdom, we show that both dimensions are quite volatile and closely linked in this region. In particular, negative economic shocks not only undermine support for government actors, but also fuel democratic disenchantment. Nonetheless, while regime support is rather fickle in South America, it can be ultimately resistant to performance fluctuations.     

中国城镇化:历史道路、制度根源与国际经验

中国城镇化发展的每一个历史阶段,都对应了中国经济社会发展中需要解决的核心问题。当前中国城镇化发展面临的瓶颈,其形成有深刻的社会历史制度根源。要从全球及中国发展大战略的角度,历史性地考察中国城镇化道路的历史演变及其逻辑,探寻中国城镇化发展瓶颈的社会历史制度根源,并借鉴国际经验,推动新型城镇化的健康发展。为此,需要在战略认知方面,突破城镇化发展传统思维的束缚,形成创新性的新型城镇化发展战略的理念;在制度建构方面,形成推动和保障城镇化发展的有针对性的战略框架;在动员多元主体力量与资源方面,要实行多元主体间的协调合作,打造城镇化发展的组织化支持系统。     

Looking for homogeneous groups of respondents and nonrespondents using latent class analysis

Concerns about decreasing response rates have led to many nonresponse studies. Unfortunately, usually only a limited amount of data is available on nonrespondents. Linking administrative data makes information available on all the sampled units including nonrespondents. Statistics Netherlands has constructed a database in which several administrative records and several surveys are connected. In this explorative study we use this dataset to look for homogenous groups of respondents and nonrespondents in survey research using latent class cluster analysis. Latent class techniques can provide insight into the problem of selective nonresponse and currently under-represented societal groups. We identify four different latent classes in a recent Dutch survey and replicate the findings for the same survey conducted 4 years later. Two of the types of sampled units have above-average response rates and the other two have below-average response rates. We also evaluate various latent class models with other response outcomes to gain insight into the contact and cooperation process.     

人本德育研究的唯物史观向度

以人为本是当代德育研究的核心话语与崭新范式。目前关于人本德育的理论探索主要是一种限于德育系统内部的抽象理念阐释与具体方法策略构建的研究模式,它尚未真正触及人本德育的根本性问题(如人本德育缺失的社会根源、人本德育实现的根本条件等)。人本德育研究的视角需要有所突破。从唯物史观的角度来看,政治与德育的关系问题是人本德育的根本性问题,而意识形态与人类基本价值的辩证统一是人本德育实现的根本性条件。只有站在唯物史观的高度,才能有效解答人本德育的根本性问题,才能为人本德育奠定彻底、完整的理论基础。人本德育研究唯物史观向度的确立不仅具有必要性,而且具有可能性。     

“根”文化背景下的人性呼唤——以小说《春去春来》为例

文化作为一个民族或者一个团体的生活方式,应该有共同遵守的价值标准。在中国,道德根文化影响着民族的生活方式。路一凡生活在特定的环境中,受到道德根文化的熏染,具有君子之德。他性格的形成具有两方面的原因:周围智者的教化,秀美山水的滋养。由此造就了他肉身欲求与精神欲求和谐一体的美,锤炼了他的文化自信。     

长江流域的消费函数:基于非稳定面板数据的分析

运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究长江流域的消费函数。基于10省(市)1981-2003年的宏观消费与收入的面板数据,研究发现消费与收入存在显著的面板协整关系,边际消费倾向也非常稳定,稳定在0.7-0.85之间。为此,应采取鼓励消费的政策,从而促进经济长期增长。     

字母d的根表意及其在英语构词中的应用

字母d=c（弯曲身子的人）＋l（直立的人）,其字面上的词义大致为：B在A面前弯曲身子,即B在A面前卑躬屈膝/俯首称臣/鞠躬。由此可以推论字母d的第1个根表意大致为：某人被征服/奴役/统治/约束,等等。在先民时代,A之所以能让B在其面前俯首称臣,是因为A用武力战胜了B,即B被撂倒/打倒/死亡,等等。这是字母d的第2个根表意。基于字母d的这2个根表意,破译了前缀de-/di-/dia-/dis-,词根dom/fid/cede/mand/mod/dem（o）/dic/vade/duce/clude/scend/lude等的图画特征。     

On the Bootstrap of the Maximum Score Estimator

This paper shows that the bootstrap does not consistently estimate the asymptotic distribution of the maximum score estimator. The theory developed also applies to other estimators within a cube‐root convergence class. For some single‐parameter estimators in this class, the results suggest a simple method for inference based upon the bootstrap.