沪市认购权证与其标的股票价格走势的Granger因果检验

运用G ranger因果检验的方法,检验沪市6只认购权证与其标的股票之间的因果关系。分析结果表明:在大样本条件下,认购权证与其标的股票之间存在单向的G ranger因果关系,权证的价格走势影响其标的股票的价格走势,说明从长期来看,认购权证发挥了其潜在的投资杠杆的作用,其价值发现与风险对冲功能在市场中得到实现;在小样本条件下,认购权证与其标的股票之间不存在显著的G ranger因果关系,表明短期内权证与其标的股票价格走势相互独立,市场中有可能存在对权证投机炒作,人为放大权证的投资风险,使权证背离其正常的投资价值。     

A person-centered perspective in assessing career adaptability: Potential profiles,outcomes, and antecedents

This study explored the career adaptability profiles and corresponding characteristics with a person-centered method as well as the correlation between career adaptability and various antecedents such as supervisor feedback setting and person-organization (P–O) fit, and outcomes such as psychological safety and self-efficacy. We employed a convenience sampling technique to invite more than 1000 employees from five provinces in China in 2 studies. There are 535 valid questionnaires in Study 1 and 377 valid questionnaires in Study 2. We performed latent profile analysis (LPA) using Mplus 7.31. For the antecedents, we ran the three-step estimation (R3STEP) command. In terms of outcomes, Binary Coded Hexadecimal (BCH) analysis was conducted. LPA identified four career adaptability profiles, namely, optimal, high, moderate, and low career adaptability. The four different profiles varied in the level, but not the shape. These profiles were predicted by antecedents of supervisor feedback environment and P–O fit, and these profiles impacted psychological safety and self-efficacy. We used a new approach to better understand career adaptability under the framework of career construction theory. A person-centered method, compared with a variable-centered approach, can elucidate the interactions among four dimensions of career adaptability in an employee. Thus, we demonstrated that (1) various career adaptability profiles at work generally do not consistently occur, and (2) latent profiles can distinguish antecedents from outcomes.     

Leveraging risk assessment for foodborne outbreak investigations: The Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model

Root cause analysis can be used in foodborne illness outbreak investigations to determine the underlying causes of an outbreak and to help identify actions that could be taken to prevent future outbreaks. We developed a new tool, the Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model (QRA-EC), to assist with these goals and applied it to a case study to investigate and illustrate the utility of leveraging quantitative risk assessment to provide unique insights for foodborne illness outbreak root cause analysis. We used a 2019 Salmonella outbreak linked to melons as a case study to demonstrate the utility of this model (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2019). The model was used to evaluate the impact of various root cause hypotheses (representing different contamination sources and food safety system failures in the melon supply chain) on the predicted number and timeline of illnesses. The predicted number of illnesses varied by contamination source and was strongly impacted by the prevalence and level of Salmonella contamination on the surface/inside of whole melons and inside contamination niches on equipment surfaces. The timeline of illnesses was most strongly impacted by equipment sanitation efficacy for contamination niches. Evaluations of a wide range of scenarios representing various potential root causes enabled us to identify which hypotheses, were likely to result in an outbreak of similar size and illness timeline to the 2019 Salmonella melon outbreak. The QRA-EC framework can be adapted to accommodate any food–pathogen pairs to provide insights for foodborne outbreak investigations.     

苏东演变的主要历史教训与反腐败问题

本文概述了苏东演变的两个主要历史教训。并根据我国国情，提出如何反对腐败，建立制度化、法律化的民主制的若干看法。     

两姐妹与蛇丈夫——"蛇郎”故事的中华文化特色

“蛇郎”是一个覆盖欧亚土陆,以它的奇光异彩与丰富内涵为世界所注目的幻想故事.中国“蛇郎”     

简论高校基层党组织作用的有效发挥

在改革开放不断深入、素质教育全面铺开、高校办学规模日益扩大的新形势下 ,高校基层党组织特别是院系党总支应彻实贯彻江泽民同志“三个代表”思想落 ,加强领导班子自身建设 ,切实加强党组织的政治核心作用和保证监督作用 ,积极参与行政决策     

寻找与背离：寻根派小说论

寻根派小说作为最近几十年以来惟一自觉的小说流派 ,一直是中国当代文学的研究重点。寻根派小说纠结于传统文化与现代文化之间 ,暧昧的传统特色与模糊的现代特征导致了寻根派小说具备着罗杰·福勒所说的“文本间性”的特征 ;寻找与背离 ,是寻根派小说的文本品性。     

安徽省金融发展与经济增长的因果关系检验

文章从实证角度研究了安徽省金融发展与经济增长的关系,得出两个主要结论:一是安徽省金融发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因,是单方向的,即金融发展推动了经济增长而经济增长没有促进金融的发展;二是资本市场还不规范,它不构成经济增长的显著影响因素。通过对安徽省经济运行特点的分析,对产生结论的原因给出了合理解释并且提出了相应的政策建议。     

产业结构对经济增长贡献的实证分析

在CES和Cobb-Dauglas生产函数的基础上,以湖南省数据为样本考察了三次产业结构的不同边际产出,同时在计量模型的基础上分析了产业结构转型对经济增长的促进作用,通过单位根检验,验证了结构转型与经济增长之间的关系。     

国有企业融资结构变化与企业绩效关系实证分析

本文在已有的规范研究基础上,对我国的国有企业经营绩效与其融资结构的关系,利用时间序列技术,从实证角度给出了进一步的分析。结果发现,融资结构变化可能在一定程度上影响经营绩效,但二者之间并不存在一个稳定互动的均衡关系。