以古为是：钱大昕与“古学”群体的形成、实践及理念

惠栋汉学的核心价值是"以古为是",其与相关的信仰和技术系统,共同构成了乾嘉考据学最初的"范式"。这一"范式"对钱大昕、王鸣盛等人的影响至深至远,使之得以迅速地进入到考据学的天地之中。不过,"古学"依旧是当时最主要的称名,并产生了广义和狭义的分化,其中狭义的"古学"即专指汉学而言。而乾隆十九年(1754)的进士考试,不但促成了王鸣盛、钱大昕、纪昀等考据学者的聚集,还推动了"古学"群体的形成。众人随即展开了诸多的学术实践,并共同承担起《五礼通考》的编撰任务。这一系列的事件,意味着考据学即将由边缘走向中央,并逐步取代理学,而成为主流的学术形态。     

新四军在江苏抗日根据地的反“清乡”斗争政策述论

为确保对华中占领区的统治,消灭该地区内的新四军,1941年7月至1944年底,日汪在江苏大部分地区掀起了罪恶的“清乡”活动。针对日汪掀起的“清乡”活动,活跃在江苏抗日根据地的新四军在中共中央及华中局的领导下,坚持党的一元化领导,把武装斗争、统一战线与群众动员紧密结合在一起,积极展开反“清乡”运动,最终赢得了反“清乡”斗争的胜利。     

18世纪朝鲜北学思想探源

18世纪朝鲜北学思想堪称朝鲜走向近代社会的前奏.它主要是在部分朝鲜入华燕行使臣深切感受到清初中国政治稳定、人民生活繁盛、文化事业发达的过程中逐渐形成的,更准确地说是在使臣为解决其传统华夷观与现实所产生的矛盾中,在其"攘清夷"观逐渐被打破的过程中形成的.虽然它率先提出打破"华夷之辨"的口号,但根本上还是对中国传统儒家文化认同的一种回归.     

“两伊问题”困扰中的美国海湾战略选择

伊战后,美国的海湾战略屡屡受挫,在中东面临危机多元化和扩散化的严重挑战。在伊拉克陷阱和伊朗核问题的双重困扰下,小布什政府及其后任可能的战略选择包括坚持原有“主导和预防行动”、采取“崩溃预防型”、恢复“稳定、威慑和遏制”、考虑“合作型秩序”等。但除非美国放弃独家主导海湾的霸权战略并调整其战略目标,否则难以在“支配”海湾地区和摆脱困境之间找到两全出路。     

A LOWER BOUND FOR THE SINGLE-LEVEL DYNAMIC HORIZON LOT-SIZING PROBLEM

Conventional production planning methods assume the existence of a medium- or longrange demand horizon. However, demand usually is known over a much shorter range; scheduling decisions must be made within this “decision window,” which rolls forward in time. This paper presents a new lower bound for lot-sizing heuristics in a rolling-horizon framework and compares it to the well-known Wagner-Whitin bound. The new bound indicates heuristic schedules that have costs close to the optimum. Rolling-horizon schedule costs are compared to corresponding static-horizon schedule costs (assuming the whole horizon is known in advance), using the ratio of decision-window size to the natural order cycle as a parameter. For values below unity, the rolling-horizon policy is significantly more costly. For values above one, the two policies have similar costs and actually converge as the parameter value increases.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS IN A COMPETITIVE OLIGOPOLY

Previous stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) models have assumed that the firm was operating under either perfect competition or monopolistic conditions. This paper presents a stochastic CVP model applicable to oligopolistic competition. Each firm is assumed to maximize a linear function of the expected value and the standard deviation of its random profits. The result is a game-theoretic model that is solved using the concept of a Nash equilibrium. The results of the model are used to examine a firm's competitive strength. The model can be easily modified to accommodate a measure of risk based on the capital asset pricing theory.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AT THE SUBUNIT LEVEL: A MULTITRAIT-MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS*

Environmental scanning activities of over 400 top management subunits in 108 European manufacturing firms provided the data base for this research. Four traits (constructs) of scanning using three methods (interest, frequency, and time) were examined. A confirmatory factor analysis approach to multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data was employed. Verification of the reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity of the scanning scales are reported and discussed. The viability of confirmatory factor analysis in providing a precise analysis of partitioning variance according to trait, method, and error is demonstrated.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.