Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

How Large Are Your G-Values? Try Gosset’s Guinnessometrics When a Little “p” Is Not Enough

Abstract

A crisis of validity has emerged from three related crises of science, that is, the crises of statistical significance and complete randomization, of replication, and of reproducibility. Guinnessometrics takes commonplace assumptions and methods of statistical science and stands them on their head, from little p-values to unstructured Big Data. Guinnessometrics focuses instead on the substantive significance which emerges from a small series of independent and economical yet balanced and repeated experiments. Originally developed and market-tested by William S. Gosset aka “Student” in his job as Head Experimental Brewer at the Guinness Brewery in Dublin, Gosset’s economic and common sense approach to statistical inference and scientific method has been unwisely neglected. In many areas of science and life, the 10 principles of Guinnessometrics or G-values outlined here can help. Other things equal, the larger the G-values, the better the science and judgment. By now a colleague, neighbor, or YouTube junkie has probably shown you one of those wacky psychology experiments in a video involving a gorilla, and testing the limits of human cognition. In one video, a person wearing a gorilla suit suddenly appears on the scene among humans, who are themselves engaged in some ordinary, mundane activity such as passing a basketball. The funny thing is, prankster researchers have discovered, when observers are asked to think about the mundane activity (such as by counting the number of observed passes of a basketball), the unexpected gorilla is frequently unseen (for discussion see Kahneman 2011 Kahneman, D. (2011), Thinking Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. [Google Scholar]). The gorilla is invisible. People don’t see it.     

Promoting Children's Welfare by Inter‐professional Practice and Learning in Social Work and Primary Care

Social work in the United Kingdom is an activity that benefits from, and often requires, co‐operation between different staff and across different professions. How this is to be achieved has been a central dilemma for practice and policy for many years. Primary care health services often play a key role. New policy and practice developments are designed to promote inter‐professional working with children, where research has shown significant problems in the community‐based health care of looked after children, children leaving care, and children at serious risk. There is, however, little evidence from research that supports current developments in inter‐professional practice; analysis of the particular nature of the inter‐professional problems is lacking, as are therefore the relevant inter‐professional solutions. A framework for better analysis, linked to developments in practice‐based research, one that would yield significant improvements for children's welfare, is presented here.     

在国家创新系统内优化配置科技资源

科技资源、科技财力资源和科技人力资源是当今的“第一资源”. 因而如何优化配置科技 资源已成为决策者、管理者提高国家竞争力、企业竞争力的核心问题. 本文提出在“国家创新系 统”中优化配置科技资源的观点, 并从实践方面, 包括我国科研院所转制、中国科学院的知识创 新工程和科技中介机构建设等加以论证.     

From pension funds to piggy banks: (Perverse) consequences of the Stability and Growth Pact since the crisis

As part of their strategy for economic and monetary union, European governments committed themselves to fiscal discipline – particularly by placing limits on annual deficits and on public debt. Subsequently, and as they sought to respond to the “current crisis”, they embraced the view that only if public finances were kept under control would sustainable recovery be possible. Rules of fiscal governance were strengthened. To help them meet these rules, the governments of many member States of the European Union made changes to their pension systems or to funds they had established specifically to pay the costs of population ageing. The intention was not to cut retirement benefits or to improve the efficiency of the relevant pension schemes and institutions. Rather, it was to free up resources immediately. Funded pension schemes and pension funds were treated like “piggy banks” that were raided when times became hard. Moreover, the policies pursued succeeded in meeting their objectives only because the system of national accounts according to which outcomes are judged does not recognize the way in which most of the fiscal gains are matched by future fiscal liabilities.     

当代中国国家哲学是建设性后现代主义的先进理论——兼与吴伟赋教授商榷

当代中国国家哲学是自觉超越现代性所带来问题的哲学思想体系,反映了世界现代化发展对社会主义道路的内在要求,在时间上先于西方建设性后现代主义思潮,是真正指导社会主义现代化的先进理论和思维范式,它必然与＂建设性后现代主义＂有某些相通之处,不仅有利于消除中国在现代化过程中出现的问题,而且对世界现代化也有深刻影响。     

Divorced mothers' self‐perception of their divorce‐related communication with their children

This is a qualitative study of divorce‐related communication between mothers and children, as recounted by 20 Jewish Israeli mothers. We adopt the communication privacy management theory, focusing on mothers' subjective experiences of communication, their management of dialectic tension between concealment and disclosure – namely, not only what mothers choose to disclose to and hide from their children, but also the feelings, concerns and perceptions that drove their communication. The mothers' reports convey the challenges and dilemmas they faced when communicating with their children about their divorce and its repercussions; the main one being their obligation to maintain a good father image and their wish to preserve a strong maternal figure. The ‘child's well‐being’ was the dominant criterion in the mothers' decision to reveal or conceal divorce‐related information. Clinical suggestions are made.     

冲突的城市形象：政府与媒体的建构

新世纪以来,地方政府将城市建设当作一项重要议程,通过传统媒体宣传,接连不断地展示各种＂爱民工程＂,让政府议题长期凸显,塑造着美好的城市形象。城市发展遭遇越来越大的困境,拆迁毁房、交通拥堵、雾霾等问题越发严重,媒体被动反映揭示的是另外一种城市形象,这种正负面并存的反差暴露出媒体建构城市形象的片面性及失衡问题。     

Combining Multivariate Bioassays: Accurate Inference Using Small Sample Asymptotics

For several independent multivariate bioassays performed at different laboratories or locations, the problem of testing the homogeneity of the relative potencies is addressed, assuming the usual slope‐ratio or parallel line assay model. When the homogeneity hypothesis holds, interval estimation of the common relative potency is also addressed. These problems have been investigated in the literature using likelihood‐based methods, under the assumption of a common covariance matrix across the different studies. This assumption is relaxed in this investigation. Numerical results show that the usual likelihood‐based procedures are inaccurate for both of the above problems, in terms of providing inflated type I error probabilities for the homogeneity test, and providing coverage probabilities below the nominal level for the interval estimation of the common relative potency, unless the sample sizes are large, as expected. Correction based on small sample asymptotics is investigated in this article, and this provides significantly more accurate results in the small sample scenario. The results are also illustrated with examples.