省域经济洼地区域中心城市发展战略研究——以江苏淮安为例

省域经济洼地地区是实现区域协调发展的重要板块和关键区域。以江苏省淮安市为例,从战略角度审视淮安建设成为苏北重要中心城市的意义和基础,并提出淮安在区域经济和流域经济层面上两个维度的发展定位和三个方向的发展路径。通过纵向融入京沪高铁和京杭运河两条复合发展轴,横向建设淮河流域生态经济带,打造苏皖在江北地区的跨界合作示范区等战略,推动淮安苏北重要中心城市的建设和省域经济协调发展格局的形成。     

我国跨行政区流域生态补偿机制研究 ——以淮河流域、太湖流域为例

流域生态补偿是利用经济手段对流域生态的外部性进行矫正的一种手段。政府强干预型与市场主导型的流域生态补偿机制都各有优缺点。当前,我国流域生态补偿存在法律机制尚不完善,水资源的产权模糊,补偿主体不明确,补偿方式单一,公民参与渠道不畅等困境。为构建高效的跨行政区流域生态补偿机制,必须制定专门性的流域生态补偿法律,充分发挥地方立法的自主性,健全流域生态补偿的法律体系;既要在近期充分发挥政府在流域生态补偿中的主导作用,又要在远期着眼于建立市场手段为主的流域生态补偿机制;拓宽公众参与途径,建立信息公开机制以及公众参与的经济激励机制,以提升流域生态补偿的制度认可度与制度效用。     

Regression models to dependence for exceedance

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) aims to study the tails of probability distributions in order to measure and quantify extreme events of maximum and minimum. In river flow data, an extreme level of a river may be related to the level of a neighboring river that flows into it. In this type of data, it is very common for flooding of a location to have been caused by a very large flow from an affluent river that is tens or hundreds of kilometers from this location. In this sense, an interesting approach is to consider a conditional model for the estimation of a multivariate model. Inspired by this idea, we propose a Bayesian model to describe the dependence of exceedance between rivers, where we considered a conditionally independent structure. In this model, the dependence between rivers is captured by modeling the excess marginally of one river as a consequence of linear functions of the other rivers. The results showed that there is a strong and positive connection between excesses in one river caused by the excesses of the other rivers.     

“渝江流域”开发构想及其对策

依托沿江沿河资源优势,发展流域经济进而带动整个地区的发展,被众多发达国家的经济发展过程证明是一种行之有效的方式,因此,研究借鉴发达国家流域开发模式对重庆沿江开发具有重要的现实意义。在此,将重庆沿江（长江）两岸称为“渝江流域”,划分为“渝江西带”和“渝江东带”,对加快推进“渝江流域”开发提出了具体思路,并指出工作重点及发展策略。     

A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

洪江十大会馆神祉文化解读

洪江十大会馆的主要功能是祀神,祀神既是会馆的教化方式,又是会馆移民的精神寄托所在。洪江十大会馆神祉文化具有区域性、世俗性、象征性和兼容性等特征。     

三峡库区次级河流富营养化及其生态治理

三峡水库蓄水水位已达165米,其水环境性质为半封闭型的缓流水体,水体自净能力下降.库区次级河流水质的状况直接影响着三峡库区的水环境与生态安全.在分析库区次级河流水体富营养化现状与发生条件的基础上,结合国内外河流整治的生态观念和思路,对库区次级河流污水生态工程治理技术进行了的初步探讨.     

城市景观河流生态修复的产出研究及有效性可靠性检验——基于上海城市内河水质改善价值评估的实证分析

意愿价值评估法(CVM)为具有显著外部性的生态环境服务的价值评估提供可能,但只有经过有效性和可靠性检验的CVM成果才能应用于环境公共政策与治理。本文以CVM评价上海市城市景观内河——漕河泾港的生态恢复的产出,在国内经常采用的线形对数模型基础上,加入二值响应的Logit概率模型对受访者社会经济变量进行回归分析,验证本次CVM应用的理论有效性。回归中首次引入反映我国特殊社会结构的户籍变量、收入差距变量两者的交互项,并纳入间接反映环境问题历史成因的居民沿河居住期变量,以验证调查结果与一般经济理论的相容性和与我国特殊社会构成、经济态势以及环境历史成因的吻合性。以预调查和正式调查为试验—复试样本验证了研究结果的可靠性。结果表明:平均支付意愿是160元/(a.户),改善漕河泾水环境的年经济效益至少在6.1×106元。     

雍正帝整饬河员述论

通过详细阐述雍正帝如何整饬河员、协调河道官员与地方官员关系、厘清与河政相关的夫役所存在的弊病,肯定了雍正帝整饬河政的成就。     

长江下游安庆复式分汊河段整治关键部位研究

分汊型河道是冲积平原河流中的常见河型,分汊型河段与单一河段的最大不同是分汊型河段具有两汊或多汊过流,分流区和汇流区的水沙具有与单一河道不同的运动特点,并容易因分汊口门的放宽,水流分散,泥沙在此淤积造成水深不够,产生碍航问题。分汊河型又包括很多不同类型,其中对复式分汊型河段航道问题的研究较少,整治技术也不成熟。以长江安庆复式分汊河段为研究对象,采用河工模型试验研究与实测资料分析相结合的方法,在分析安庆河段水流运动规律的基础上,探讨了不同整治部位实施工程的效果,通过综合比较提出了安庆复式分汊河段的整治关键部位。