农户种植业风险及其认知比较研究

通过对浙江、上海、山东、湖北和安徽五个不同地区660户农户实地访问调查资料的分析发现:目前我国农户从事种植业生产经营的风险主要来源于气候等自然因素、农产品市场价格和农业生产资料价格;农户更关注农产品产量而非市场价格波动;在地区和作物层面上,具有不同生产特征和家庭特征的农户对种植业生产经营风险的认知具有一定的差异性;目前农户弱化种植业风险主要倾向于依靠自身的力量而较少依靠农业保险、农业组织及政府等外部力量。政府需要从完善信息发布体系、加强对农资市场管理、促进农村合作经济组织及农业保险的发展等方面入手,提高农户弱化生产经营风险的能力。     

对建立我国外资银行风险防范法律机制的探讨

介绍了外资银行风险防范的法律机制的具体内容,围绕风险监管指出金融宏观调控法律机制、外资银行风险监管法律机制、外资银行风险监管国际合作法律机制三者之间的关系。     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

“十一五”期间江苏安全生产面临的潜在风险、主要特征及其防范对策

“安全生产风险”是指在生产过程中因安全生产隐患可能引发的,致使大面积生命财产安全遭受重大损失的灾难性社会后果,它已成为现代社会典型的“社会风险”之一。“十一五”期间,江苏安全生产仍面临危险化学品灾害、人员密集场所特大事故及道路桥梁安全隐患三大潜在风险的挑战。江苏安全生产潜在风险具有分布行业的差异性、表现形式的多样性、诱发原因的趋同性、识别信号的隐蔽性、防范要求的系统性等主要特征。防范安全生产风险应在实施“科学发展”战略、深化专项整治、加强源头治理、建立健全安全生产控制指标体系与安全生产激励约束机制等方面制定相应对策。     

企业战略联盟风险防范体系的架构研究

在对企业战略联盟存在的风险及规避措施进行理论透析的基础上,给出了企业战略联盟伙伴选择机制的权值排序模型。提出了企业战略联盟的3种风险防范整合架构,并论述了三者之间的相关关系。最后通过实例对企业战略联盟伙伴选择机制的权值排序模型和风险防范整合体系进行了验证。     

业务外包风险分析与控制

结合现代企业理论中的交易费用理论和“委托-代理”理论,对业务外包风险进行了深入的剖析,详细分析了外包决策和执行两个阶段的风险,并提出了相应的风险控制策略。     

论概率安全评价中的组织风险因素

核电站组织风险已经成为核电站安全运行重要的影响因素,在概率安全评价中考虑组织风险因素是核电安全研究的重要课题。文章在建立组织风险因素与PSA之间转换的概念框架的基础上,对组织风险因素进行分类。分类后的组织风险因素受人员行为形成因子的影响,其影响在人因可靠性分析中进行分析。计算和评估这些人员行为形成因子对于事故后操纵员的影响可以计算组织因素对核电站安全的影响。     

会计核算软件逆向操作的利弊分析

为了迎合财务会计的需求,软件公司开发了不少带有逆向操作功能的软件,虽然在使用中对更正会计差错、减少系统数据冗余和提高工作质量等起到了一定的作用,但同样也给财务会计系统的安全带来了威胁。这里在简略介绍会计核算软件逆向操作内涵和功能作用的基础上,针对其可能产生的隐患和危害等进行了分析,并针对其弊端和可能的风险提出了防范性完善措施。     

Community Wise: The Development of an Anti-Oppression Model to Promote Individual and Community Health

Communities with histories of oppression have shown great resilience, yet few health interventions focus on structural oppression as a contributor to health problems in these communities. This article describes the development and active ingredients of Community Wise, a unique behavioral health intervention designed to reduce substance use frequency, related health risk behaviors, and recidivism among individuals with a history of incarceration and substance abuse residing in distressed and predominantly African American communities. Community Wise, developed through the collaborative efforts of a board of service providers, researchers, consumers, and government officials, is a 12-week group intervention that aims to address behavioral health problems by raising critical consciousness in distressed communities.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.