永做最广大人民群众利益的忠实代表

江泽民总书记"七一"重要讲话全面阐述了"三个代表"的科学内函.本文分析指出了如何当好最广在人民根本利益的忠实代表是实现"三个代表"的核心和关键问题,同时,高等院校应当成实践为代表最广大人民群众根本利益的重要阵地.     

探索以工为主的综合性大学文科学报的办刊之路

国家新闻出版署开通了学报系列之后,一大批以工科为主的综合性大学的文科学报拥有了公开出版权,但与老牌的以文为主的综合性大学（例如北京大学、人民大学等）的文科学报相比,这些新兴的学报存在着诸多不足,差距很大。如何发挥这些新兴学报（指获得公开出版权以后的学报,以前虽有刊号,但为内部刊号）的作用,在学报界找准自己的位置．是这些学报面临的急待解决的问题。为此,笔者结合办刊经验,提出了准确定位、突出特色;贯彻标准化、规范化的办刊方针,提高刊物质量及编辑素质;立足校内、扶植作者、培养人才、服务学校等对策,以期探索以工为主的综合性大学文科学报的办刊之路。     

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.     

Approaches to conflict modeling: A study of a possible USA-USSR nuclear confrontation

A possible nuclear confrontation between the USA and USSR is analyzed using five different models from game theory in order to compare the various approaches that can be taken in the analysis of conflicts. Of particular importance is an improved metagame analysis model that provides a comprehensive procedure for analyzing not only the nuclear conflict but also any other type of real world conflict that can arise in practice. When the improved metagame analysis model is linked with a new state transition model, the dynamics of the game can be thoroughly studied.     

The relative career advancement of men and women engineers in the United States

Despite the fact that women engineering students perform as well as their male classmates during college, women engineers report lower salaries and supervisory responsibility levels after about five years in the labour force. Several hypotheses concerning the reasons for the differences in career advancement of men and women engineers were investigated in a national survey of engineers in the United States. The gender differences in career advancement could not be explained by differences in education level or in self-perceptions of ability. The fact that women were more likely to have taken a career break than were men did decrease their salaries and supervisory levels. However, gender differences were still apparent even when this factor was controlled. The careers of both men and women were affected by conflicts arising from the multiple roles of worker, spouse, and parent, but many women engineers avoided such conflicts by remaining single and childless. These results challenge several popular explanations for the differential advancement of men and women, but the actual causes remain unknown.     

基于学生发展的高校学生事务管理研究

鉴于当今高等教育的发展以及我国高校的现状,学生事务管理在高校人才培养中发挥着十分重要的作用。高校当下的学生事务管理模式很难满足社会教育和学生发展的需要。高校应借鉴欧美高校的学生事务管理经验以及哲学、心理学、社会学等学科的理论,探索适合学生发展的学生事务管理。     

基于独立学院学生特点的教学管理研究

独立学院是我国高等教育体系改革的新生事物。文章通过分析独立学院学生特点及独立学院教学管理工作中存在问题,旨在寻找制约独立学院教学管理的主要原因,提出解决这些问题的可行方法与措施,为独立学院健康、稳定、快速发展提供依据。     

教育、宗族与地域社会——清中叶江西万载书院再考

地处江西省西北边陲的万载县,在清中叶的嘉庆道光年间出现了兴建书院的热潮,地方宗族也参与其中。宗族参与的方式是以创建族学书院为主以及购置学田、奖以花红盘费、创建试馆等助学措施。宗族创建书院的资料在县志和族谱中均有记载,但各有侧重。县志中收录的族学,强调的是作为书院教的一面,同时也是地方宗族实力兴替的一种体现。族谱中收录的族学,突显的是其养的一面,甚至因此纠缠于义学与义田的兼行分理纠纷之中。宗族组织的积极参与地方教育,与同时期活跃的族群、士绅等群体,使得地域社会的凸显成为清中叶的时代特征之一,有助于帮助理解19世纪以后大历史的发展演变。     

Bootstrap inference in local polynomial regression of time series

In this paper we consider the inferential aspect of the nonparametric estimation of a conditional function , where X _t,m represents the vector containing the m conditioning lagged values of the series. Here is an arbitrary measurable function. The local polynomial estimator of order p is used for the estimation of the function g, and of its partial derivatives up to a total order p. We consider α-mixing processes, and we propose the use of a particular resampling method, the local polynomial bootstrap, for the approximation of the sampling distribution of the estimator. After analyzing the consistency of the proposed method, we present a simulation study which gives evidence of its finite sample behaviour.     

Optimal tests in AR (m) time series model

In the univariate framework, two problems of testing the nonlinearity are investigated in Hwang and Basawa. The first one is concerned with the testing problem for a nonlinear class contiguous to the AR(1) process. The second one is focused on the testing problem of the ARCH model contiguous to the AR(1) models. In each case, an efficient test of linearity was obtained, the local asymptotic normality (LAN) was proved, an efficient test of linearity was constructed, and the asymptotic power function was derived. All these results were obtained under the assumption where the parameter of the time series model is assumed to be known. In practical situation, this parameter is unspecified and its estimation induces an error that has an impact on the asymptotic limit distribution. A new method for the good evaluation of this error is introduced and investigated in the present article. Consequently, its application allows us to preserve the local asymptotic optimality with the estimated parameter. An extension to testing in class of ARCH models contiguous to p-order autoregressive processes is obtained. The LAN property plays a fundamental role in the present study.