辛亥革命时期的锡金军政分府述略——纪念辛亥革命100周年

辛亥革命时期,革命党人秦毓鎏领导无锡和金匮两县的光复事业,起义成功后建立的锡金军政分府,成为当时很有影响的地方政权的代表。锡金军政分府从1911年11月成立至1912年5月结束,存在半年左右时间。在此期间,军政分府组建军政领导核心、接管地方旧有政权、举办民团等,强化了对地方政权的控制;通过废除厘金、催租征税、镇压农民抗租斗争,来稳定地方的经济秩序;积极废除地方的陈旧陋习,移风易俗,注重市政建设,推进了无锡社会事业的发展。锡金军政分府的存在,对周边地区如常州、镇江等地方政权的稳固,对革命党人光复南京起了积极的作用,甚至对后来的"二次革命"也有很大的影响。     

农村人力资本投资视阈下的地方农业高校作为

农村人力资本是一种提供未来经济价值的资本。新农村建设对农村人力资本的培育提出了更高的要求。地方农业高校处于中心城市的区位优势,加之长久服务三农的经验及得天独厚的信息、人才、科技优势决定了其在农村人力资本的投资中应积极作为:建立农村劳动力培训体系,探索各形式的科技推广服务,并致力于学习型农村的构建,提升农村人力资本的学习能力与科技素质,为新农村建设提供强有力的智力支持与人才支撑。     

选择神祗:明代公祀体系的包容与排斥——以地方公祭神祠为中心

明代地方公祭内容当中,各类神祗祭祀的变化最为频繁,大致经历了洪武朝定制期,成化、弘治迅速发展期,以及嘉靖以后的持续增长期三个阶段,祭祀内容不断增加,以致繁复.地方公祭对象的选择标准主要考虑其是否有功于国家、惠爱在民、具有保佑功能,或学识德行昭著.这样的选择标准是基于对公共利益的考量,即通过对这些神祗的公祭,发挥崇德报功、示范表率,及舆论导向的功用.因此,明代公祀体系具有明显的“为公”属性.整体来看,明代地方公祀体系是开放的,并处于不断变动中,其包容和排斥性构成理解明代地方祭祀信仰层级结构的一个视角.这种层级结构显示出明朝政府对国家所倡导的儒家信仰、制度性的宗教信仰,以及各类民间信仰的基本态度.     

论万历《顺天府志》的体例纂修特点与文献价值

万历《顺天府志》是北京历史上第一部保存完整的府志,也是现存最完整的一部明代官修北京志书,具有重要的文献价值。作者从分析其体例结构和纂修特点入手,将它与清人纂修的康熙、光绪《顺天府志》和乾隆《日下旧闻考》作了基本比较,指出志书究竟是篇幅宏大好还是简明扼要好,何为质量上乘的精品佳志,不能一概而论,要作系统研究和具体分析,认为从版本学、方志学、文献学和历史研究而言,万历《顺天府志》都具有不可或缺的重要意义。     

Asymptotic normality of the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional time-series data

This article focuses on the conditional density of a scalar response variable given a random variable taking values in a semimetric space. The local linear estimators of the conditional density and its derivative are considered. It is assumed that the observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Under some regularity conditions, the joint asymptotic normality of the estimators of the conditional density and its derivative is established. The result confirms the prospect in Rachdi et al. (2014 Rachdi, M., A. Laksaci, J. Demongeot, A. Abdali, and F. Madani. 2014. Theoretical and practical aspects of the quadratic error in the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 73 :53–68.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and can be applied in time-series analysis to make predictions and build confidence intervals. The finite-sample behavior of the estimator is investigated by simulations as well.     

On the Use of GLS Demeaning in Panel Unit Root Testing

One of the most well-known facts about unit root testing in time series is that the Dickey–Fuller (DF) test based on ordinary least squares (OLS) demeaned data suffers from low power, and that the use of generalized least squares (GLS) demeaning can lead to substantial power gains. Of course, this development has not gone unnoticed in the panel unit root literature. However, while the potential of using GLS demeaning is widely recognized, oddly enough, there are still no theoretical results available to facilitate a formal analysis of such demeaning in the panel data context. The present article can be seen as a reaction to this. The purpose is to evaluate the effect of GLS demeaning when used in conjuncture with the pooled OLS t-test for a unit root, resulting in a panel analog of the time series DF–GLS test. A key finding is that the success of GLS depend critically on the order in which the dependent variable is demeaned and first-differenced. If the variable is demeaned prior to taking first-differences, power is maximized by using GLS demeaning, whereas if the differencing is done first, then OLS demeaning is preferred. Furthermore, even if the former demeaning approach is used, such that GLS is preferred, the asymptotic distribution of the resulting test is independent of the tuning parameters that characterize the local alternative under which the demeaning performed. Hence, the demeaning can just as well be performed under the unit root null hypothesis. In this sense, GLS demeaning under the local alternative is redundant.     

中国地方政府债务的结构性风险

在或有债务不确定触发地方政府代偿的现实背景下,本文对地方政府显性债务和或有债务的结构性风险进行了模型刻画,给出了两类债务违约概率的显示解及其估计方法。基于地方政府报告的显性债务和审计署的有关公告等,本文对地方政府的显性债务和或有债务规模进行了结构性分解和估算,多视角估计了不同久期（或平均债务到期时间）下的两类债务的结构性风险状态,同时对比分析了其变动趋势。模型估计表明：地方政府债务风险的主要形态是或有债务的不确定触发,在部分时段内,地方政府的结构性代偿压力明显较大,但债券置换等旨在拉长债务久期的政策设计有助于缓释地方政府债务的信用风险边界,降低地方政府的结构性代偿压力。本文用具体数字揭示了地方政府债务的结构性风险状况及其变动趋势,以及地方政府债务久期之伸缩与其代偿压力之间的定量关系。     

住房价格、土地价格与地方政府行为

本文基于中国35个大中城市2005至2015年的面板数据,通过构建具有“空间依赖”性质的房价地价空间面板联立方程模型,深入研究房价与地价关系、地方政府行为对房价和地价的作用机制以及城际间的相互作用。研究表明,临近城市间的房价相互“模仿”并一同推动地价上涨,房价对地价的影响呈现“模仿促进”的作用特征;各城市通过尽可能抬高本地地价来拉大与临近城市地价水平的差距,进而推高房价,实现“以地生财”。此外,研究还证实地方政府通过“价格途径”和“政策途径”均能对房价进行有效调控,且“价格途径”具有一定的传染性;而“数量途径”和“结构途径”作为地方政府控制地价的有效手段,具有较强的溢出效应。     

我国地方政府性债务及其风险防范

加强地方债务风险的控制和管理是确保当前我国经济"稳中有进"方针的重要举措,要正确看待我国地方政府性债务存在的问题,通过分析其产生的原因,借鉴发达国家防范地方债务风险的经验和美国底特律市政府破产的教训,进一步完善针对地方政府融资行为的约束机制,引导地方政府合理控制债务规模。具体做法是:继续规范和清理地方融资平台;建立科学合理的地方政府性债务管理模式;充分利用民间资本缓解地方政府债务压力;建立地方干部问责制;加快财税体制改革。     

The Influence of Gaming Expenditure on Crime Rates in South Australia: A Local Area Empirical Investigation

Although there has been much speculation about the possible links between gambling and crime rates, relevant quantitative evidence has been practically non-existent in Australia to date. This paper reports the results of research that utilised a model designed to investigate the potential relationship between electronic gaming machine expenditures and property (income-generating) crime rates reported to police in local areas in South Australia in 2002–2003. The research found that the higher the expenditures on gaming machines in a particular local area per adult, the higher the income-generating crime rate in that area. No such relationship was found between gaming machine expenditure and non-income-generating crime rates. However, further research is required before any policy-relevant conclusions can be drawn.