从《中国大学评价》看长江大学的发展现状

现行的大学评价指标体系和排名方式,需要不断改进和完善;但这种以定量为主的评价方法,与传统的单纯定性评价的方式相比,具有直观清晰、数据客观的特点,说服力更强。分析《中国大学评价》对长江大学的排名,可为长江大学开展战略管理和年度发展评价提供一种新的视角。     

Estimation of parameters in incomplete data models defined by dynamical systems

Parametric incomplete data models defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biostatistics to describe biological processes accurately. Their parameters are estimated on approximate models, whose regression functions are evaluated by a numerical integration method. Accurate and efficient estimations of these parameters are critical issues. This paper proposes parameter estimation methods involving either a stochastic approximation EM algorithm (SAEM) in the maximum likelihood estimation, or a Gibbs sampler in the Bayesian approach. Both algorithms involve the simulation of non-observed data with conditional distributions using Hastings–Metropolis (H–M) algorithms. A modified H–M algorithm, including an original local linearization scheme to solve the ODEs, is proposed to reduce the computational time significantly. The convergence on the approximate model of all these algorithms is proved. The errors induced by the numerical solving method on the conditional distribution, the likelihood and the posterior distribution are bounded. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation methods are illustrated on a simulated pharmacokinetic nonlinear mixed-effects model defined by an ODE. Simulation results illustrate the ability of these algorithms to provide accurate estimates.     

Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion

Many different methods have been proposed to construct nonparametric estimates of a smooth regression function, including local polynomial, (convolution) kernel and smoothing spline estimators. Each of these estimators uses a smoothing parameter to control the amount of smoothing performed on a given data set. In this paper an improved version of a criterion based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), termed AIC_C, is derived and examined as a way to choose the smoothing parameter. Unlike plug-in methods, AIC_C can be used to choose smoothing parameters for any linear smoother, including local quadratic and smoothing spline estimators. The use of AIC_C avoids the large variability and tendency to undersmooth (compared with the actual minimizer of average squared error) seen when other 'classical' approaches (such as generalized cross-validation (GCV) or the AIC) are used to choose the smoothing parameter. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the AIC_C-based smoothing parameter is competitive with a plug-in method (assuming that one exists) when the plug-in method works well but also performs well when the plug-in approach fails or is unavailable.     

宏观调控权纵向配置研究——以宏观调控法为视角

宏观调控权纵向配置的观点众多,主流观点多认为中央享有宏观调控权,但其中颇多疏漏。从理论结合实践的维度出发,因可得出宏观调控权的纵向配置应是中央和地方共享宏观调控权。在此基础之上,初步构建出中央与地方宏观调控权配置的体系。     

A class of local likelihood methods and near-parametric asymptotics

The local maximum likelihood estimate θ^ _t of a parameter in a statistical model f ( x , θ) is defined by maximizing a weighted version of the likelihood function which gives more weight to observations in the neighbourhood of t . The paper studies the sense in which f ( t , θ^ _t ) is closer to the true distribution g ( t ) than the usual estimate f ( t , θ^) is. Asymptotic results are presented for the case in which the model misspecification becomes vanishingly small as the sample size tends to ∞. In this setting, the relative entropy risk of the local method is better than that of maximum likelihood. The form of optimum weights for the local likelihood is obtained and illustrated for the normal distribution.     

大理国的乌蛮

从人口数量和分布区域看,乌蛮是大理国的主体民族,在大理国时正经历着以氏族(姓)为基础的社会组织向更高阶段的社会组织"部"发展,研究大理国境内的乌蛮和乌蛮到底有多少个"部",以及乌蛮在大理国境内静态和动态的地理分布及其变化,可以达到拓展乌蛮源流史研究的目的,进而丰富民族史学的学科内涵。     

试论我国高校国防职能的发挥

高校职能与社会需要直接相关,文章探讨了我国高校国防职能发挥的四种途径:搞好学生军训;依托高校做好后备军官的培养工作;做好征兵工作、鼓励大学生到军营建功立业;发挥科研优势、服务国防科技工业等。     

The Enchantment of Agriculture: State Decentering and Irrigated Rice Production in Bali

This article explores state involvement in the ‘enchanted’ aspects of irrigated rice production in Bali, Indonesia. Modernising states invariably forward what Max Weber called the rationalisation and disenchantment of the world. In irrigation management, the Indonesian colonial and postcolonial states operated staunchly on this model. ‘Enchanted’ elements of Balinese rice production involving temples and rituals were assumed irrelevant and sidelined. Recently, however, bursts of state-funded construction of irrigation temples and shrines suggest a surprising shift. The post-Suharto decentralised state appears to be supporting the enchantment of irrigated agriculture. This article deals with the relationship between legislation under the decentralised state and ritual building activities in Balinese irrigation associations (subak). We examine how contemporary farmers view the new emphasis on ‘ritual technology’. Does it constitute decentralised support of the farmers' world, of local priorities and variance, or a new homogenising project?     

Suitable Algorithm Associated with a Parameterization for the Three-Parameter Log-Normal Distribution

Associated with a parameterization for the three-parameter lognormal distribution, an algorithm was proposed by Komori and Hirose, which can find a local maximum likelihood (ML) estimate surely if it exists. Nevertheless, by Vera and Díaz-García it was shown that performance in finding a local ML estimate deteriorated by adopting the parameterization only and using other algorithm. In the present article, it will be shown that Komori and Hirose’s algorithm should be used for the parameterization. This work will also give MATLAB codes as a useful tool for the parameter estimation of the distribution.     

论芦焚乡土小说创作的荒野意象

芦焚小说创作的荒野意象凝聚着作家复杂而又深沉的乡土情结。透过荒野意象，芦焚的乡土小说表现了中原乡村大地的异化与挣扎。同时，对荒野意象的关注表现出作家强烈的人道主义和民主主义的情怀。