LOCAL INFLUENCE IN NONLINEAR REPRODUCTIVE DISPERSION MODELS

Nonlinear reproductive dispersion models (NRDM, Jorgensen 1997) include a wider range of distributions and nonlinear models such as the possibility of correlated errors and nonlinear hypotheses dropping the exponential family assumption. Based on the generalized Cook distance and the conformal normal curvature of Poon & Poon (1999), local influence of minor perturbations on the data set is investigated for NRDM. Two examples are used to illustrate our results.     

A test for abrupt change in hazard regression models with Weibull baselines

We develop a likelihood ratio test for an abrupt change point in Weibull hazard functions with covariates, including the two-piece constant hazard as a special case. We first define the log-likelihood ratio test statistic as the supremum of the profile log-likelihood ratio process over the interval which may contain an unknown change point. Using local asymptotic normality (LAN) and empirical measure, we show that the profile log-likelihood ratio process converges weakly to a quadratic form of Gaussian processes. We determine the critical values of the test and discuss how the test can be used for model selection. We also illustrate the method using the Chronic Granulomatous Disease (CGD) data.     

Local GMM Estimation of Semiparametric Panel Data with Smooth Coefficient Models

In this article, we consider the estimation of semiparametric panel data smooth coefficient models. We propose a class of local generalized method of moments (LGMM) estimators that are simple and easy to implement in practice. We show that the proposed LGMM estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our proposed estimator performs quite well in finite samples. An empirical application using a large panel of U.K. firms is also presented.     

Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Panel Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Resolve the Incidental Trend Problem

In an influential article, Hansen showed that covariate augmentation can lead to substantial power gains when compared to univariate tests. In this article, we ask if this result extends also to the panel data context? The answer turns out to be yes, which is maybe not that surprising. What is surprising, however, is the extent of the power gain, which is shown to more than outweigh the well-known power loss in the presence of incidental trends. That is, the covariates have an order effect on the neighborhood around unity for which local asymptotic power is negligible.     

Adaptive Test for Periodicity in Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models

This article is devoted to the study of the periodicity testing problem in a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. The local asymptotic normality (LAN) property is shown via the adapted sufficient conditions due to Swensen (1985 Swensen , A. R. ( 1985 ). The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend . Journal of Multivariate Analysis 16 : 54 – 70 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the LAN of the central sequence is established. First, we consider the case where the innovation density is specified and we obtain a parametric local asymptotic test. Second, we construct an adaptive test in the case where this density is unspecified but symmetric. The performances of these established tests are shown via simulation studies.     

An Integral Bhattacharyya Type Bound for the Bayes Risk

In this article, some results are derived on stochastic comparisons of the residual and past lifetimes of an (n ? k + 1)-out-of-n system with dependent components. These findings generalize some recent results obtained on systems with independent components and provide some interesting results for a system with dependent components following an Archimedean copula. An illustrative example is provided.     

“制度-资本-行动”:基层社会治理共同体何以构建?——基于鲁西南S镇的案例研究

遵循“制度基础→资本保障→行动结果”的作用链条,构建了“制度-资本-行动”的分析框架,并借助鲁西南S镇“水污染治理共同体”的案例深描,呈现基层社会治理共同体构建的全过程。研究发现：科层制下的制度创新和权力下放为基层社会治理共同体构建奠定基础,制度创新促进共同参与,权力下放实现赋权增能,但该过程普遍面临着政府间财权和事权的摩擦和调适;基层政府正式治理资源不足使其通过公众协同共治、官员关系运作和政府间利益共谋等方式嵌入非正式治理资源;个体资本禀赋的价值属性使得公众参与基层社会治理存在差异性;基层社会治理共同体构建的政府策略表现为维护政治稳定和任务导向下的行政动员、基层政府“适应性执行”以及基层官员“职位收益最大化”的理性选择;基层社会治理共同体构建的公众策略表现为权益受损及参与意识的提高促进参与实践,企业主利益驱使下的不同策略转换,村干部在政府、村民与自身之间“三重角色”扮演中寻求综合收益最大化。因此,基层治理实践中,需要从上级政府、镇政府、村民、企业主、村干部等多主体视角优化制度设计、强化资本保障、调适利益取向和目标追求,最终实现共建共治共享的基层社会治理格局。     

价值链网络结构范型下社区公共物品协同供给创新

社区公共物品供给治理本质上是一个开放演化、利益关联、耦合自洽和情境适应的复杂网络系统。由于供给手段智慧化、供给过程复杂性、个体能力失败和主体关系不确定性，传统由单中心主导的分立、单一和线性供给模式不能对整体网络化供给问题给出有效释义和策应方案，需要引入价值链网络结构治理新范式。从价值链理论出发，社区公共物品供给是适应协同供给的价值链网络结构系统，价值链网络系统理论与社区公共物品协同供给具有内在契合性。价值链网络结构范型下社区公共物品协同供给的内在要求体现在现实问题逻辑、供给价值诉求和主体关系博弈三方面；价值系统表征为克服供给碎片化、提供“三变”供给路径和技术手段嵌入支撑；构建基础体现在良好的社区文化、坚实的网络基础和规范的政治环境。建构多中心价值链网络协同供给模型，需要从管理协同、运作协同以及消费反馈协同三个层面展开施加管控。     

政府向社会力量购买服务改革的制度障碍及对策

政府向社会力量购买服务不仅是推动政府职能转变的重要着力点,而且是扶持社会力量发展的重要措施。各地在推动这项改革过程中取得了很大成效,但也存在着制度设计不严密、制度衔接不顺畅等问题和障碍。将这项改革深入推进下去,需要坚持有层次地放开政府资源,加强对整个购买过程的动态管理以及建立政府购买公共服务改革同其他改革之间的联动机制等多项措施的推动。