A Bayesian predictive inference for small area means incorporating covariates and sampling weights

The main goal in small area estimation is to use models to ‘borrow strength’ from the ensemble because the direct estimates of small area parameters are generally unreliable. However, model-based estimates from the small areas do not usually match the value of the single estimate for the large area. Benchmarking is done by applying a constraint, internally or externally, to ensure that the ‘total’ of the small areas matches the ‘grand total’. This is particularly useful because it is difficult to check model assumptions owing to the sparseness of the data. We use a Bayesian nested error regression model, which incorporates unit-level covariates and sampling weights, to develop a method to internally benchmark the finite population means of small areas. We use two examples to illustrate our method. We also perform a simulation study to further assess the properties of our method.     

ROBUST ESTIMATION OF SMALL‐AREA MEANS AND QUANTILES

Small‐area estimation techniques have typically relied on plug‐in estimation based on models containing random area effects. More recently, regression M‐quantiles have been suggested for this purpose, thus avoiding conventional Gaussian assumptions, as well as problems associated with the specification of random effects. However, the plug‐in M‐quantile estimator for the small‐area mean can be shown to be the expected value of this mean with respect to a generally biased estimator of the small‐area cumulative distribution function of the characteristic of interest. To correct this problem, we propose a general framework for robust small‐area estimation, based on representing a small‐area estimator as a functional of a predictor of this small‐area cumulative distribution function. Key advantages of this framework are that it naturally leads to integrated estimation of small‐area means and quantiles and is not restricted to M‐quantile models. We also discuss mean squared error estimation for the resulting estimators, and demonstrate the advantages of our approach through model‐based and design‐based simulations, with the latter using economic data collected in an Australian farm survey.     

Optimal Composite Markers for Time‐Dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with Censored Survival Data

Abstract. To increase the predictive abilities of several plasma biomarkers on the coronary artery disease (CAD)‐related vital statuses over time, our research interest mainly focuses on seeking combinations of these biomarkers with the highest time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. An extended generalized linear model (EGLM) with time‐varying coefficients and an unknown bivariate link function is used to characterize the conditional distribution of time to CAD‐related death. Based on censored survival data, two non‐parametric procedures are proposed to estimate the optimal composite markers, linear predictors in the EGLM model. Estimation methods for the classification accuracies of the optimal composite markers are also proposed. In the article we establish theoretical results of the estimators and examine the corresponding finite‐sample properties through a series of simulations with different sample sizes, censoring rates and censoring mechanisms. Our optimization procedures and estimators are further shown to be useful through an application to a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing angiography.     

甘肃省县域经济发展水平空间差异分析

甘肃省包括86个县区,受地理位置、气候条件、资源状况、经济基础各种因素的影响,各县区之间的经济发展水平差异显著但又有很多相似之处。为了定量揭示甘肃省县域经济发展水平在空间上的分布现状、差异以及相似性,笔者拟运用多元统计方法对甘肃省县域经济发展水平的空间差异分析     

缓解我国就业压力的重要途径--再谈农村工业化

工业化包括农村工业化,片面的工业化和单向的农村———城市人口流动模式都不能解决农村剩余劳动力就业问题。为充分就业找到新途径,关键在于对传统农业的改造和加速农村工业化发展。     

农村劳动力结构变迁对村落文化传承的影响

随着城市化进程不断加快,西部经济欠发达地区的农村青壮年劳动力不断流入城市,使得农村劳动力结构处于失衡状态并且对农村社会文化生活的正常运行带来巨大挑战。通过深入剖析陕西关中李村的个案,发现农村劳动力结构变迁已经对原有的村落文化传承机制产生了重要的冲击,致使村落文化传承面临难以为继的处境。基于此,建议强化村级组织在村落文化传承方面的组织、引导功能;鼓励成立留守妇女文化组织;重视村落的文化扶贫,重建村落文化空间。     

西北少数民族地区反贫困之特点变化与政策调整

伴随着中国反贫困的进程加快,我国大部分地区的贫困状况得到极大的改善,特别是少数民族地区,因为发展的原初起点低,又在反贫困进程中受到各种民族地区发展政策的扶持,反贫困的效果尤为明显。但是进入新世纪以来,整体社会经济发展的特点发生了极大的变化,特别是西北少数民族地区的反贫困事业面临着生产发展与环境保护、城市化与人口压力、发展旅游与环境污染等多重压力,少数民族地区的贫困状况也出现了新的特点,特别体现在人口构成的文盲率在地区、年龄、性别等方面,从社会工作介入、注重职业技能教育培训、社会性别作为政策设计要件等新的视角切入,有助于提高反贫困事业的实际效果。     

论我国农村城镇化发展的条件

我国农村城镇化 ,即小城镇的发展 ,是需要一定的条件的。本文从当前我国小城镇发展所需要解决的七个条件入手 ,分析了我国小城镇发展过程中所存在的问题 ,并提出解决的大体思路。具体从分析小城镇发展的人口迁移因素、产业集聚因素、区位选择因素、投资环境因素、科技投入因素、基础设施建设因素以及政府行为因素等方面出发 ,总结了我国小城镇发展的一些基本条件 ,以期其能为政府决策部门提供借鉴     

试论学习型社会背景下农村社区教育模式的构建

在建设学习型社会的背景下,开展农村社区教育还存在农民受教育意愿不强、管理效率不高、教育经费不足、内容针对性不强等问题。建议在构建农村社区教育模式时应考虑：以培育现代农民、促进农村经济社会发展为目的,建立以学校为中心的农村社区教育网络,教育内容注重农民教育需求,同时采取灵活多样的培训和教育方式,以及政府支持、多元筹资的资金保障措施。     

20世纪后半叶日澳关系之变迁——由宿敌到伙伴

对二战前后的日澳关系进行了简单的回顾,论述了两国地区合作的前奏、经济利益和政治认同的互动,分析了冷战后两国建设性伙伴关系的形成,指出在亚太地区这一空间背景下来考察日澳关系的变迁,不但对于这一双边关系本身,而且对于整个亚太地区的一体化走向都具有重要的研究价值。