大型工程项目进度—费用联合风险分析

从工程项目风险管理的角度出发,阐述了大型工程项目的风险特征。基于Monte carlo仿真方法,建立了大型工程项目进度-费用联合风险估计仿真模型,并对仿真结果进行统计分析,获得了进度-费用联合风险曲面。由此得到各种进度费用组合下的风险概率分布。最后结合算例说明了进度-费用联合风险的定量估计方法。     

Evaluation of Yoga and Meditation Trainings with Adolescent Sex Offenders

This project was a program evaluation of an innovative approach to working with adolescent sex offenders at a human service agency in the Intermountain West. A literature review shows little content on the use of yoga and meditation instruction in general, and no content on the use of such methods with adolescent sex offenders. There is evidence, however, that such techniques can contribute to the improved physical and mental health of adults. Adolescent participants, their parents, and their trainers in the program were interviewed. Results of the interviews are summarized, and recommendations are forwarded.     

在VB5.0中实现和单片机串行通信方法

本文具体介绍了利用ＶＢ５．０的通讯控件ＭＳＣＯＭＭ３２．ＯＣＸ和单片机进行串行通信的方法——查表法发达和接收。     

美国与墨西哥禁毒合作中的不对称性——以"百草枯喷洒项目"为中心(1971-1981)

20世纪60年代初期,美国国内大麻问题日趋恶化,寻求解决大麻问题的良策成为美国政府的主要议题之一。美国政府放弃极端年代的极端管制政策,开始把大麻问题的解决诉诸双边和多边的国际合作,试图通过次区域、区域和全球的协同合作来缓解国内的大麻问题。历史地考察美国与墨西哥围绕“百草枯喷洒项目”出现的合作与冲突,可以发现,美墨之间的合作更多地体现出一种互动影响和制约关系的“不对称性”。美国政府与社会的认知、美国政府内行为体间相互的博弈与妥协、美国国内政策的调整等“三个变量”主导了美墨间禁毒的相互依存结构,继而成为两国间合作存续的必要条件,导致了合作关系的脆弱,也令美墨间的禁毒合作关系难以摆脱帝国霸权的阴影。     

美国联邦政府社区“一老一小”代际间互助项目的价值取向与运行机制——美国代理祖父母志愿者项目的经验

美国代理祖父母志愿者项目是借助代际间服务型学习方法,以满足社区需求为导向,利用各类资源实施的一种社区教育和服务活动,旨在改善老年人生活质量,促进老年人和儿童青少年共同发展,构建互利共生社区服务型学习生态。其运行机制包括涵盖招募选拔、志愿者培训、服务实践和绩效评估四个环节及分工明确的协同合作。其项目实践以循证服务模式为依托,项目设计与运行保持了一定的自主性,效果评估体现了综合多维性。美国代理祖父母志愿者项目可以为我国发挥社区作用,推动社区教育发展,促进养老托幼一体化服务建设,构建互利共生的服务型学习生态提供参考借鉴。     

616光路计算程序的改进

本文从光学设计的实践出发,提出完善我院编制的616光路计算程序的若干改进意见。它包括提高计算结果的准确性,增加程序的灵活性和功能扩展等诸方面问题。     

Evaluation of False Positive and False Negative Outcomes in NTP Long-Term Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies

The decision-making process used by the National Toxicology Program (NTP) in its evaluation of long-term rodent carcinogenicity studies was investigated to determine whether or not this procedure resulted in an excessive number of false positive or false negative outcomes. All site-specific tumor incidences that were found to be significantly ( p < 0.05) increased either by a trend test or by pairwise comparisons of each dosed group against the controls in 218 NTP 2-year studies with Fischer 344 rats and/or B6C3F1 mice were tabulated and compared to the number of statistically significant tumor increases expected to occur by chance. Our evaluation suggests that false positive rates are fairly low in NTP long-term studies. Assessing false negative rates is more difficult because of the limited sensitivity of the bioassay for detecting subtle carcinogenic effects. Moreover, reduced body weights frequently occur in dosed animals, and the positive correlation between the incidences of certain site-specific tumors and body weight may mask the detection of carcinogenic effects. Despite these difficulties, our analysis did identify one tumor showing evidence of false negative outcomes: interstitial cell tumors of the testis in male Fischer 344 (F344) rats. This tumor showed considerably more significant ( p > 0.05) increased incidences than expected by chance, yet none were considered to be chemically-related. However, the biological significance of interstitial cell tumor increases in F344 rats is uncertain because of the high background rate of neoplasia (>90%) for this target site.     

Predicted outcomes in a national sample: A source of comparison for program evaluation

The lack of comparison groups is a common problem for researchers conducting evaluations of small, specialized programs. When conventional comparison groups are not available, the authors suggest a possible alternative approach which involves: (a) locating a sub-group in a national study for whom relevant variables have been measured; (b) generating a statistical model which predicts the outcome of interest in the national data; and (c) applying the predictive model to program data, in order to estimate outcomes in the absence of progam intervention. The authors illustrate this new application by presenting the results of an analysis of data from Project Talent, a national manpower study, and discuss its application to the evaluation of a medical training program in New York City.     

政治协商的话语逻辑——制定《共同纲领》的党派关系与民主维度

《共同纲领》充分体现了中国共产党和民主党派的话语协商和宪制民主,标志着各政党在追求国家独立、民族富强、人民幸福的过程中达成了普遍共识,为构建平等的政党关系奠定了坚实基础。     

A visual management tool for program planning,project management and evaluation in paediatric health care

This article describes the development and implementation of a custom-designed Excel-based visual management tool. The tool’s purpose was to support program planning and evaluation by our resource support team within a paediatric health care setting. Our aims in developing it were to 1) establish a streamlined process and supporting tools to efficiently plan and prioritize program directions and activities; 2) track progress; and 3) evaluate and report on our performance, outputs and outcomes. A collaborative approach based on the ADKAR (Awareness, Desire, Knowledge, Ability, Reinforcement) change management model and the LEADS (Lead self, Engage others, Achieve results, Develop coalitions, Systems transformation) leadership framework was used to guide the design and implementation processes. Team members reported high perceived effectiveness and efficiency with respect to the tool’s utility in supporting its proposed aims. A graded approach to building knowledge and skills in using the tool, to individual responsibility for data entry, and to accountability by team members facilitated its successful implementation. Administrative support is important for sustainability and continual improvement of the tool to address changing team needs over time.