P2P网络借贷机构的系统重要性研究

互联网金融发展得如火如荼,其蕴藏的风险不容忽视。由于P2P网络借贷是互联网金融的一项重要业态,且其风险溢出效应较大,研究其风险监管有着非常重要的意义。通过借鉴巴塞尔委员会对系统重要性银行识别的指标体系,基于指标法的思想联系我国互联网金融发展现状以及P2P网络借贷机构的特征对指标体系进行了合理改进。对国内比较重要的P2P网络借贷机构进行了系统重要性排名,并且和以前的研究成果进行了比较。对于推动互联网金融分类适度的监管工作有着一定的意义。     

政府部门间G2G信息资源共享的演化博弈分析

简要介绍了电子政务的发展和演化博弈理论,将政府部门置于一个不断渐进地演化系统中,根据演化博弈系统构建出演化博弈模型和演化相位图,探究及分析政府部门所拥有的信息资源、信息资源共享的收益系数、政府部门的风险系数和信息资源共享中的技术成本等相关参数对政府部门之间的信息资源共享所产生的影响,并据此提出一些有针对性的建议,为提升跨政府部门之间信息资源共享能力和电子政府信息服务能力提供科学的理论支持。     

减排约束下的中国石油需求预测

针对中国2015年和2020年CO2排放强度减排目标,建立了以CO2强度减排为主要约束,综合考虑经济增长、能源结构以及产业结构等约束的石油需求优化预测模型.预测结果显示:2015年和2020年中国石油需求量分别为5.28亿吨、6.04亿吨,该结果意味着,未来我国石油需求总量仍将有较大幅度的增加,但占一次能源比重有所下降;与其他研究结果比较发现,减排约束对石油需求的增长起到一定的抑制作用;未来中国的石油对外依存度仍将处于较高水平.     

跨境电子商务合同履行流程研究

“互联网+外贸”促进了跨境电子商务的蓬勃发展。而跨境电子商务贸易中最重要的环节为合同履行的过程,它是指在跨境电子商务合同商订后,买卖双方需要做的以使整个交易顺利完成的所有工作,其具体流程主要包括买方付款、卖方发货、报检进仓、平台报关和物流配送及信息跟踪。但目前由于我国的跨境电子商务刚刚起步,政策监管体系还不完善,政策支持还未到位,合同履行中第三方支付、物流、检验检疫以及报关纳税等流程都存在诸多问题。因此,针对这些具体问题,需要在现有交易支付平台上建立健全用户核对系统,确保交易安全,还要构建跨境电子商务风险监控和质量追溯体系,并创新海关监管模式,完善申报制度,并尽快建立一套完善的物流整体解决方案来实现物流、海关和商检等环节的快速衔接,进而促进我国跨境电子商务的快速健康发展。     

强水敏稠油油藏CO2 吞吐技术研究

郑408 块为典型的强水敏稠油油藏,由于储层能量不足和水敏性强,采用天然能量开发、注防膨水开发和蒸汽吞吐开发效果较差。通过室内实验研究了CO2 在郑408 原油中的溶解作用,认识了CO2 吞吐回采阶段渗流特征,基于数值模拟方法优化得到了郑408 块CO2 吞吐开发方案。研究表明,CO2 溶于稠油后,可使稠油的体积大幅度膨胀,原油黏度将大大降低;CO2 吞吐回采阶段,由于稠油黏度较高,CO2 在原油中析出后以小气泡形式分散在原油中,形成“泡沫油”渗流状态,“泡沫油”可以提高稠油的流动能力,增加原油的弹性能量,降低地层压力下降速度;数值模拟结果表明,郑408 块CO2 吞吐周期注入量优化值为100 t,注气速度优化值为50 t/d。     

Bivariate log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution

Univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution has received a considerable amount of attention in recent years. Rieck and Nedelman (A log-linear model for the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. Technometrics, 1991;33:51–60) introduced a log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The main aim of this paper is to introduce bivariate log Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. The proposed model is symmetric and it has five parameters. It can be obtained using Gaussian copula. Different properties can be obtained using copula structure. It is observed that the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) cannot be obtained explicitly. Two-dimensional profile likelihood approach may be adopted to compute the MLEs. We propose some alternative estimators also, which can be obtained quite conveniently. The analysis of one data set is performed for illustrative purposes. Finally, it is observed that this model can be used as a bivariate log-linear model, and its multivariate generalization is also quite straight forward.     

Monitoring and change-point estimation for spline-modeled non-linear profiles in phase II

In some applications of statistical quality control, quality of a process or a product is best characterized by a functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables. This relationship is referred to as a profile. In certain cases, the quality of a process or a product is better described by a non-linear profile which does not follow a specific parametric model. In these circumstances, nonparametric approaches with greater flexibility in modeling the complicated profiles are adopted. In this research, the spline smoothing method is used to model a complicated non-linear profile and the Hotelling T² control chart based on the spline coefficients is used to monitor the process. After receiving an out-of-control signal, a maximum likelihood estimator is employed for change point estimation. The simulation studies, which include both global and local shifts, provide appropriate evaluation of the performance of the proposed estimation and monitoring procedure. The results indicate that the proposed method detects large global shifts while it is very sensitive in detecting local shifts.     

Ethnic differences in the academic achievement process in Canada

This research examines the extent to which differences in achievement between German-speaking and French-speaking students are accounted for by theoretically related intervening variables and the extent to which the entire achievement process differs across the two ethnic groups. For the two ethnic groups, both main effects and interaction effects have significant consequences for the academic achievement process, even when a number of other variables are controlled. The results suggest that the whole process works to the benefit of the German-speaking students and to the detriment of the French-speaking students.     

明成祖的亲王守边政策

以往学界认为 ,明成祖在即位后将塞王内徙 ,以天子守边和总兵镇边取代了藩王守边。但对已发现材料的考察表明 ,在永乐十一年四月以前的大部分时间里 ,成祖之子汉、赵二王曾先后防守北京一带 ;二王拥有较大的军、政权力 ,可以统帅大将 ,抗击蒙古 ,地位接近于洪武末年的塞王 ;永乐初年塞王内徙出于本王自请 ,成祖只是顺水推舟而已 ;永乐时留在北边的其他塞王可起拥有护卫以壮边防声威之效 ,在定位上与洪武末年的安边保国不同     

内蒙古绒山羊KAP6-2全长cDNA的特征分析

选择10月份周岁绒山羊体侧部皮肤构建cDNA质粒文库,随机挑选克隆提取质粒,用M13正向通通用引物,测插入片段的序列,得到636个序列。与Genebank数据库比对后,发现有1个序列与小鼠的KAP6-2基因的期望值小于le-10,对其预期编码蛋白的氨基酸进行分析,建议绒山羊KAP6-2具有HGTps(高苷/酪氨酸蛋白,high glycine/tyrosine proteins)与富含半胱氨酸蛋白之间的中间特征。