Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.     

高校科研管理工作的几点思考

本文从五个方面对高校科研管理工作进行了阐述,提出了一些自己的看法,旨在进一步改进科研管理工作.     

IT教学中教学方法的探讨

教学方法是实现教学目的所采用的途径和手段。信息产业的高速发展要求教育者不断改进教学方法。针对目前 IT教学的情况 ,本文对教学方法从七个方面进行了探讨 :考试的重点、理论课程与实验课程的安排、教材的更新、学生创新能力的培养、教学活动的方法、与学生的交流、教学模式的多样化     

英语教学行为及其教学心理研究的宏观管理和优化

本文探讨了英语教学作为一个系统行为工程的宏观性管理及优化问题,提出了经济性原则、系统性原则、知识技能并重原则,为英语教学及教学心理研究提供理论基础。     

对现阶段图书馆工作的再认识

实现现代化、全球信息一体化是图书馆工作的目标,但我们既要着眼于未来,更要立足于现实,搞好现阶段的管理和服务。因此,图书馆工作要围绕一个中心,强化多维管理,这是图书馆迈向现代化的基础。     

工厂供电课程教学方法探讨

工厂供电课程存在着教学任务肾、课时少的现象,按传统的讲授法进行教学,会出现教不好、学不透的两难境地。为避免此类现象的发生,提出了引导法、角色转换法、对比论证法、现代教育法等多种教学方法。经过教学实践证明,这些方法能有效地提高学生的学习效率,促进学生综合能力的提高。     

知识经济与内部审计

从四个方面阐述了知识经济对内部审计的影响 ,论述了在新的经济环境下应采取的审计方法     

两种价值取向与三段式考核模式——思想道德修养课考核方法浅探

思想道德修养课在考核方法上存在两种不同的价值取向 :纯粹考核的价值取向和服务学生的价值取向。而三段式考核模式正是倡导服务学生的价值取向 ,从而达到考核的真正目的     

走出餐饮经营管理的误区

近年来中国餐饮业虽发展迅速,但不少经营者由于采用不科学的经营管理手段而走入种种误区,以致面对激烈的市场竞争而困难重重。文章在分析餐饮经营管理中存在的问题的同时,提出了积极应对的建议。